793
FXUS63 KPAH 181140
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
640 AM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Heat Advisory continues today through Sunday, with high
  temperatures 15 to 20 degrees above normal in the middle 90s
  to near 100 degrees.

- There is a 20-30% chance of showers and storms late this
  afternoon into this evening across mainly southwest Indiana,
  northwest Kentucky into the Pennyrile region, and portions of
  southern Illinois along anD north of Route 13.

- A cooling trend will finally begin early next week with the
  passage of a cold front, with temperatures by mid week near to
  even a little below normal.

- The cold front will be accompanied by 40-60% chances of
  showers and thunderstorms Monday afternoon into Monday
  evening, with 20-40% chances tapering off from northwest to
  southeast late Monday night THROUGH Tuesday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 640 AM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026

Updated aviation section for 12z TAF issuance.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 102 AM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026

The heat wave will continue with our region remaining under the
influence of an upper level ridge.  A Heat Advisory remains in
effect through Sunday as high temperatures continue to reach
near record to record readings in the middle 90s to near 100
degrees.

A weak boundary to our north is expected to sag far enough
southwest late today and trigger isolated showers and
thunderstorms across northwest and eastern portions of the PAH
forecast area (fa). The boundary will retreat back northeast
late tonight, but a stray shower of storms is not out of the
question Saturday afternoon in portions of southwest Indiana.

The upper ridge will gradually break down over the weekend, and
models bring a cold front slowly through the middle Mississippi
and lower Ohio valley late Sunday into Monday. Winds will shift
to the west then north Sunday afternoon into Sunday night.
Chances of showers and storms will slowly spread into northern
and western portions of the PAH fa late Sunday night into Monday
morning, with chances increasing and spreading southeast by
Monday afternoon. Monday afternoon chances will range from
20-40% across west Kentucky, to 40-60% chances across the rest
of the area, then 30-50% chances will continue into Monday
evening. 20-40% chances will taper off from northwest to
southeast late Monday night through Tuesday.

The passage of the cold front will finally bring welcome relief
from the heat, with highs Monday ranging from the upper 80s
northwest to middle 90s southeast, then Tuesday from the middle
70s northwest to middle 80s southeast. Dry conditions and near
to even a little below normal temperatures will then persist
Wednesday into Thursday with highs in the middle 70s to around
80 degrees and very low humidity.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 640 AM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026

VFR conditions expected through the TAF period with skies
ranging from SKC to FEW-BKN100 and no vsby restrictions. An
isolated shower or storm is possible between 20z-03z at
KMVN/KEVV/KOWB, but chances are too low to include in TAFs.
Light to calm winds will be variable at around 5kts or less
after 16z.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Sunday for ILZ075>078-080>094.
MO...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Sunday for MOZ076-086-087-100-
     107>112-114.
IN...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT /8 PM EDT/ Sunday for INZ081-082-
     085>088.
KY...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Sunday for KYZ001>022.

&&

$$


DISCUSSION...RST
AVIATION...RST