229
FXUS63 KPAH 231729
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1129 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread dense fog over much of the Quad State early this
  morning will linger well after daybreak before dissipating. A
  Dense Fog Advisory is in effect until 9 AM CST.

- Another round of rain is expected Monday through Tuesday.
  Rainfall amounts between a third of an inch and one inch are
  expected.

- Temperatures trend 5 to 10 degrees below normal for Wednesday
  through Friday, including Thanksgiving.

- The holiday weekend will start out dry, but showers are
  expected to overspread the Quad State mainly mainly Saturday
  night through next Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 209 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

As we speculated yesterday, dense fog has indeed developed and
a Dense Fog Advisory is in effect for most of the Quad State.
Areas near and north of I-64 may stay out of the Advisory. A
solid area of low clouds over southeast Missouri is making it
difficult to determine how far west of the Mississippi River the
dense fog exists, but for now the Mississippi River counties
either have METARs, webcams, or satellite imagery indicating
dense fog in those areas. As the low clouds continue east of the
River, the ceilings will basically be at the ground with dense
fog.

The biggest questions for the fog are how long it will take to
burn off and will it lift into a pesky layer of low clouds. The
NBM and NAM indicate that possibility. Of course, this would
hold down heating. We have already come down a few degrees,
especially over the eastern half of the area, but further
downward adjustments may be necessary later today. The 15Z
expiration for the Advisory looks good, so there are no changes
to be made to the Advisory at this time.

Our next round of rain will arrive on Monday as expected. There
continue to be some differences in how quickly it will arrive
over southeast Missouri Monday, but it will spread over the
entire area quickly in the late afternoon and evening. As for
trends, a bit earlier onset is indicated Monday, and the rain or
showers may linger longer through Tuesday in the east. Some
guidance even keeps some light QPF in the east until the front
arrives Tuesday night. QPF is now 0.75"-1.00" over most of the
region, with amounts dropping off rather dramatically to the
northwest. Areas from Perryville Missouri to Fairfield Illinois
may not see more than a quarter inch.

The cold front is still expected to pass Tuesday night. This
will push any lingering light showers east of the area, leaving
dry conditions over the Quad State Wednesday through at least
Friday. Temperatures will drop around 5 degrees below normal by
Wednesday, and closer to 10 degrees below normal for
Thanksgiving and Friday.

Guidance continues to show significant spread with respect to
the arrival of our next chance of rain. In general, the 00Z
guidance is a bit faster than 24 hours ago, so we have some low
chance PoPs spreading east over the region through the day
Saturday. The better chances will hold off until late Saturday
night through next Sunday. The NBM QPF is well over an inch in
this time period, but there is currently no thunder mentioned.
The 00Z ensembles indicate that there could be some instability
reaching the area next Sunday night into next Monday. Although
the details need to be ironed out, the holiday weekend is likely
to end on a wet note.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1122 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

Poor flight conditions are expected to continue today and
tonight although confidence is still somewhat low. Most of the
dense fog has now lifted, but most terminals are still seeing
IFR to LIFR ceilings. Recent satellite trends show some
improvements in cloud cover although at this point, overcast
skies remain at the terminals. While some scattering is
forecast, there remains the possibility that broken to overcast
skies rule. Low ceilings are expected tonight, again IFR to
LIFR. Guidance continues to be aggressive in fog development
yet again and the TAFs represent that with dense fog prevailing
at most sites. Some sites may bounce around but would expect
visibility restrictions to continue. Late in the period Monday,
some limited improvements to cigs are possible with PROB30s for
rain mainly after 15Z for CGI/PAH.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DRS
AVIATION...AD