444
FXUS63 KPAH 220458
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1158 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Heat Advisory and Excessive Heat Warning cover all but the
  Interstate 64 corridor through Thursday. Showers and
  thunderstorms may hold back the heat in those areas on
  Tuesday. Outside of the storms and cloud cover afternoon heat
  indices will range from 105 to 110 through at least Thursday.
  The entire Quad State will experience the extreme heat and
  humidity Wednesday and Thursday.

- Chances of thunderstorms return to the forecast over portions
  of the region this weekend, which may finally provide some
  break from the heat and humidity.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1158 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2025

Updated the aviation section for the 06Z TAF issuance.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 325 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2025

A broken line of showers and storms are ongoing this afternoon
along a surface boundary, stretching from SEMO eastward through
the Pennyrile of KY. While coverage is not widespread, the
shower and storms are producing very heavy rainfall and may
lead to localize flooding. The peak of this activity is expected
to linger through about 6-7pm before diminishing toward or just
after sunset.

Additional showers and storms may develop Tuesday afternoon, which
may again keep some of the northeast counties up near the I-64
corridor from reaching Heat Advisory levels. No changes in headlines
were made with this update. Heat index values should easily
reach 105+ for the Excessive Heat Warning locations and up to
105 degrees in the Heat Advisory. The Heat Advisory will likely
be expanded to the northeast at least a couple of tiers of
counties into Illinois and a portion of southwest Indiana for
Tuesday . Again, a few locations will be marginal on the Heat
Advisory in southwest IN Tuesday afternoon.

As the ridge builds into the middle of the week, expect the heat and
humidity to continue across the area with less shower and storm
coverage each day, especially Wednesday into Thursday. Those will
likely be the peak heat days through this heat wave!

The next chance for showers and storms along with some relief from
the heat will arrive for Friday into Saturday as a couple waves move
through the Quad State. That will help to at least briefly flatten
the ridge to a very small extent. Any relief will be short-lived as
the ridge looks to quickly build back across the area Sunday into
Monday with temperatures warming into the low to mid 90s and heat
index values pushing close to or exceeding 105 degrees again!!

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1158 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2025

Shower activity has ended with some borderline MVFR/VFR cigs
over the Kentucky Pennyrile. Fog potential remains with better
chances for IFR conditions at the northern/eastern terminals.
Vsby improves during the day, continuing as such for the
remainder of the TAF period aside from isolated to scattered
thunderstorm development, which the latest models tend to favor
along a NW to SE line close to the Mississippi River. Afternoon
lower deck cloud heights tend towards the 3500-4500 ft range.
Winds are light through the entire TAF period.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Extreme Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT Thursday for ILZ080-081-
     084-085-088-089-092>094.
     Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Thursday for ILZ086-087-090-091.
MO...Extreme Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT Thursday for MOZ076-086-
     087-100-107>112-114.
IN...None.
KY...Extreme Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT Thursday for KYZ001>006-
     008-009.
     Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Thursday for KYZ007-010>022.

&&

$$

UPDATE...
DISCUSSION...KC
AVIATION...ATL