642
FXUS63 KPAH 262328
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
528 PM CST Tue Nov 26 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Another weather system will move through the region Wednesday
  into early Thanksgiving Day, bringing another round of light
  rain showers and chilly temperatures.

- A wave of much colder and well below normal temperatures will
  arrive after Thanksgiving through next weekend. While no
  impactful winter weather is expected, some light snow showers
  are possible next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 252 PM CST Tue Nov 26 2024

After a chilly morning, temperatures have only warmed into the
upper 40`s to around 50 degrees with mostly light and variable
wind. High pressure is situated directly over the region this
afternoon. This high will continue to bring cool and dry weather
the rest of today and tonight with temperatures generally below
normal.

Attention turns to our next weather system which is currently
situated across the PAC NW and into southern Canada. Model
trends continue to show a progressive system which will likely
keep much of Thanksgiving Day dry. This system will move
southeast into the Rockies and plains leading to a sfc cyclone
that will move into the midsouth and Tennessee Valley late
Wednesday into Thursday morning. We will likely start off pretty
dry on Wednesday with isentropic surfaces and model soundings
not showing saturation until after 18Z Wed when rain fills in
across the region. Strong sfc ridging will be kicking this
system out of here pretty quick with a healthy ~1040mb high
across Canada. Rain will end early Thanksgiving morning with
clearing skies taking place in the afternoon hours.

Much below normal temperatures will follow this system with the
region beneath the extension of a strong high pressure across
the southern Canadian provinces. Highs on Friday and Saturday
will range from the mid 30`s to lower 40`s with lows in the
teens and 20`s. This prolonged period of below normal
temperatures will likely last into early next week. While much
of this period will likely be dry, a clipper system is still
progged to drop into the region on Saturday. While QPF appears
light, thermal profiles suggest mostly snow as the predominant
p-type. The trend has been for the higher QPF (still only a
couple hundreths of an inch or less) across our southern IL, and
southwest IN counties. Impactful weather from this system isn`t
expected but we continue to watch it.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 515 PM CST Tue Nov 26 2024

High pressure will remain in place tonight before shifting east
of the area through the day Wednesday. This will keep VFR skies
and visibilities through at least Wednesday afternoon. Clouds
will steadily increase as the high departs the area and an area
of low pressure approaches from the west. This will lead to
lowering clouds, possibly MVFR/IFR, toward the end of this TAF
issuance, mainly at the western TAF sites.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AD
AVIATION...KC