790
FXUS63 KPAH 260346
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1046 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot and humid conditions will continue through the weekend,
  with isolated to widely scattered storms providing limited
  relief from the heat.

- Another wave of extreme heat is likely Monday and Tuesday and
  perhaps into Wednesday.

- The arrival of a cold front will finally bring a break in the
  heat wave late next week, along with additional chances for
  showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 213 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025

While the heat and humidity will continue this weekend, heat
index values will not be quite as oppressive in previous days.
This is due to the subtropical ridge briefly retreating to our
east. Combined with a remnant MCV from Central Plains
convection, isolated to scattered thunderstorm chances are
forecast both Saturday and Sunday, concentrated during the heat
of the afternoon. Max heat index values will reach 100-105F
Saturday and 105-110F on Sunday, which is still high enough to
extend the ongoing Heat Advisory through Sunday evening.

The subtropical ridge will retrograde and become centered over
the region Monday and Tuesday and perhaps into Wednesday. H5
heights of 594+ dm and specific humidity values near
climatological maximum values will yield widespread extreme peak
heat index values of 110 to 115F degrees Monday and Tuesday. A
few of the climatologically-favored locations may see heat index
values up to 120F. Confidence was high enough to hoist an
Extreme Heat Watch for Monday afternoon through Tuesday evening.
Heat headlines may need to be extended into Wednesday as well
depending on the timing of an approaching cold front.

An approaching cold front is the light at the end of the tunnel
for this heat wave. This will bring scattered thunderstorm
chances Wednesday and Thursday, with heat index values finally
falling below Heat Advisory or Warning criteria by the end of
next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1045 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025

Mainly VFR conditions tonight with some patchy fog possible at
KCGI/KMVN. SCT-BKN cu around 3.0-3.5 kft AGL develops by
midday, with scattered thunderstorms developing in the
afternoon. There is some uncertainty in how widespread the
spatial coverage will be, but MVFR conditions will be possible
during storms. Tranquil weather then is progged for tomorrow
evening with SCT high-level clouds. Winds will be south between
5-10 kts.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Sunday for ILZ075>078-080>094.
     Extreme Heat Watch from Monday afternoon through Tuesday
     evening for ILZ075>078-080>094.
MO...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Sunday for MOZ076-086-087-100-
     107>112-114.
     Extreme Heat Watch from Monday afternoon through Tuesday
     evening for MOZ076-086-087-100-107>112-114.
IN...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT /8 PM EDT/ Sunday for INZ081-082-
     085>088.
     Extreme Heat Watch from Monday afternoon through Tuesday
     evening for INZ081-082-085>088.
KY...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Sunday for KYZ001>022.
     Extreme Heat Watch from Monday afternoon through Tuesday
     evening for KYZ001>022.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DWS
AVIATION...DW