622
FXUS63 KPAH 212239
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
439 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A light rain/snow mix is possible across southwest Indiana and
  nearby areas of southeast Illinois and northwest Kentucky into
  this evening, with no impacts.

- Cooler than normal conditions will continue through Friday
  night.

- Near normal temperatures are expected Saturday, with above
  normal readings Sunday into Monday, then it will cool back
  down to below normal for the rest of next week.

- Chances of light rain return Sunday night into Monday night,
  then a very rainy Thanksgiving Eve and Thanksgiving are
  expected.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 439 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2024

Updated Aviation discussion for 00Z TAF Issuance.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 129 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2024

Models show a strong surface low along/just off of the northeast
coast around 00z, with a secondary lobe of energy rotating on the
backside of this low.  This lobe will move through Indiana into
eastern Kentucky this afternoon into this evening, producing some
light QPF over southwest Indiana and adjacent areas of southeast
Illinois and northwest Kentucky late this afternoon into this
evening.  There will be enough cold air just off the surface to mix
some snowflakes in with any rainfall, but surface temperatures
in the upper 30s to around 40 degrees with prevent any issues.
Liquid amounts will only be a trace to a couple of hundredths
of an inch. These areas already saw some flakes this morning,
and along with breezy and chilly conditions, it finally feels
like fall. This energy will also help keep conditions breezy
into tonight, especially in our northern and eastern counties
where gusts up to around 25 mph. Winds will lessen by Friday,
but we could still see some gusts to around 20 mph, again mainly
in our north and east.

High pressure will briefly build in for the weekend, with the center
of the high moving to our southeast late Saturday into Saturday
night.  Winds will shift to the southwest to south during the day,
so this will begin a brief warming trend.  Temperatures will be near
to a little below normal Saturday into Saturday night, but highs
Sunday and Monday will be 5 to 10 degrees above normal.

Lows Sunday night will be 15 to 20 degrees above normal.  This will
be in part to increasing clouds ahead of a cold front.  Models take
the front across the PAH forecast area late Sunday night into
Monday. Rain showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible, with
the highest chances Monday afternoon, especially east of the
Mississippi River.  Overall QPF is not substantial, with maybe a
couple of tenths for our far eastern counties, tapering off to a
couple of hundredths along the Mississippi River.  Dry conditions
will return for late Monday night into Tuesday as temperatures drop
back to below normal readings.

Models are in good agreement with a system affecting our region
mid to late week, but the timing is lower in confidence. Models
show low pressure lifting a warm front toward the middle
Mississippi and lower Ohio valleys sometime in the late Tuesday
night to Wednesday night time frame, with the low moving through
our region somewhere in the Wednesday night to Thursday night
time period. The model blend produces 15-30% chances by Tuesday
night, with chances increasing to 50-60% area wide Wednesday
afternoon into Thursday. Though timing can not be pinned down as
to when the best chances will be, a portion of our big travel
day and/or Thanksgiving will see some substantial rainfall seems
like a good bet, with some thunderstorms also possible mainly
in portions of west Kentucky and southeast Missouri. Current
forecast rainfall totals range from 1.25 to 2.5 inches.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 439 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2024

Restricted bases will yield CIGS from KEVV-KOWB thru the bulk of
the night, with KMVN on the periphery of the responsible cyclone`s
cloud shield. KCGI/KPAH may sneak out with mainly SCT bases but
will be watched closely, as low VFR to MVFR bases accompany the
trajectory path around the cyclone responsible. The column gets
drier tmrw, but time/height cross sections do suggest just
enough residual moisture within the boundary layer where
steepening daytime lapse rates may provide SCT to occasional
BKN (mainly at KEVV/KOWB) bases.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$