395
FXUS63 KPAH 170512
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1112 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Seasonable temperatures will continue through Monday, followed
  by a return to above normal temperatures Tuesday through
  Friday with highs ranging from the upper 60s to lower 70s.

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms return Monday evening into
  Tuesday morning, with lingering chances late Tuesday into
  Wednesday. Isolated stronger storms Monday night will be
  capable of producing small to marginally severe hail,
  especially over SEMO.

- Numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms increase in
  coverage on Thursday, with the greatest risk of heavier
  rainfall Thursday night into Friday. Total rainfall between 1
  to 3 inches is expected.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1215 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

More seasonable conditions have settled over the region with
northerly winds advecting in a dry airmass. A weak sfc ridge of high
pressure builds into the FA tonight with a weakness in the pressure
gradient favoring more tranquil conditions. MOS guidance is on the
cooler side of the NBM for Monday morning lows, as there is
some uncertainty on how much the boundary layer will decouple
tonight. Leaned slightly lower with a blend of the NBM 10th
percentile as low dewpoints combined with radiational cooling
should support most locations falling into the low to mid 30s.

Monday will start off dry as a warm front remains on track to move
through Monday night with scattered showers and thunderstorms. The
CAMs differ on how quickly the boundary layer saturates late Monday,
as the bulk of the pcpn is more likely to hold off until the evening
when WAA begins to ramp up. The CSU-MLP is hinting at the potential
for a small to marginally severe hail risk with the HRRR supporting
a sharp MUCAPE gradient of 500 to 1500 J/kg, 6.5 to 7.0 C/km
850-500 mb lapse rates, and 40-50 kts of sfc-6 km shear. The
parameters are the most favorable over SEMO where isolated
stronger storms will be possible. Storms may linger into Tuesday
morning until WAA subsides.

As the frontal boundary sags back south and becomes more stationary,
a lull will occur late Tuesday into Wednesday with showers and
isolated thunderstorms turning more intermittent. By Wednesday
afternoon, the main focus will be an amplified 500 mb positively
tilted trough over the SW CONUS that will eject towards the FA
by the end of the week. There still remains quite a bit of
uncertainty in the evolution of sfc low pressure, but the
general consensus is now for a warm front to lift back north on
Thursday with showers and isolated thunderstorms, followed by a
period of heavier rainfall late Thursday night into Friday in
the wake of a cold front. The probability remains high for 1 to
2 inches of rainfall across most of the FA while uncertainty
increases in the 2 to 3 inch range.

Seasonable temperatures trend back above normal Tuesday through
Friday into the upper 60s to lower 70s withs lows in the 50s.
Another cool blast arrives next weekend with temperatures returning
to near normal.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1110 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

VFR will prevail next 24 hours. High pressure to the north will
provide calm wind overnight becoming 5-8 kts from the east
Monday. Clouds will increase through Monday with a gradual
lowering of cigs through the period. Shower potential begins to
increase gradually from the west after 03Z with PROB30s for all
terminals.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DW
AVIATION...AD