202
FXUS63 KPAH 290958
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
358 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A potent disturbance will impact the area today with the
  precipitation beginning as snow or a rain/snow mix in the
  morning before changing to all rain Saturday afternoon.

- Light snow accumulations are possible, particularly across
  areas near Interstate 64 today where a winter weather
  advisory has been issued. Isolated travel impacts are possible
  with brief periods of heavy snow and the possibility of some
  mixing of sleet.

- Continued below normal temperatures will continue into early
  next week, ahead of another system that is set to bring
  additional chances of wintry weather to the area Monday night
  into Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 358 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

Flurries are approaching the northwestern border of the CWA
early this morning. With southeasterly winds at the surface and
warm air advection, temperatures across the Quad State are
generally holding in the mid to upper 30s. Dew points are in the
lower 20s in the east up to around 30 in SEMO`s western four
counties.

On the synoptic scale, fairly zonal flow locally contains a
slight difluent pattern moving east of the area while a
shortwave trough moves through the Central Plains. Gulf moisture
is pulled northward into Missouri early this morning while the
low pressure system tracks from Southern Kansas northeastward
today towards Chicago. High pressure to the east is responsible
for dry air in eastern portions of the Quad State. A NW/SE warm
front lifts through the forecast area today, roughly positioned
near the Mississippi River at this time, with drier air to the
east and (comparatively) moist air to the southwest. Models are
in fairly strong agreement on positioning of precipitation but
still have some variation in temperature and thus precip type.
Temperatures are running on the high side so far. While some
models show substantial wet-bulbing with the arrival of more
moderate snowfall rates, that may be optimistic for amount of
cooling, and the forecast trend is warmer with less snowfall.

Northern portions of SEMO and much of Southern Illinois will
start out with snow, transitioning to rain later this morning
following the warm frontal passage. Elsewhere, some light snow
is possible, but accumulations in those areas should be a
dusting on grassy surfaces at the most. Areas near the warm
front and with better vorticity can see some heavier bursts of
snow which can lead to brief impactful conditions on roads and
sidewalks. The I-64 corridor of Southern Illinois has the best
chance of seeing accumulations up to 1-2 inches and the winter
weather advisory remains in effect from Jefferson to Wabash
Counties. A brief mixing/transition to sleet is possible but
for the most part p-types should be snow to rain today. Rain is
expected over the entire Quad State midday through the evening
hours with highs in the near 40 to mid-40s range, bringing an
end to any impactful road conditions. Arrival times for rainfall
in the east have shifted a bit later and overall QPF is reduced
as the low pressure center is slightly north of earlier
forecasts. Additionally, winds will be breezy today, with gusts
up to 25-35 mph in Southern Illinois and Southeast Missouri.

Winds shift to westerly to west-northwesterly tonight with a
cold frontal passage. A brief transition back to light snow is
possible but no additional accumulation is expected.
Temperatures cool down for the remainder of the weekend and
early next week as northerly flow Sunday precedes high pressure.

Uncertainty continues with an early week system. Gulf moisture
streams into the Deep South with a low pressure system.
Meanwhile, troughing to the west sends low pressure into the
Central Plains. Models vary with the interaction and timing of
these streams. The GFS is most aggressive with bringing wintry
weather to the Quad State while the other ensembles are less
active. The NBM appears higher on snowfall than all of the
ensemble means, which may partly be due to blending cooler/drier
runs with warmer/moister runs. Further complicating things,
there are some ensemble members producing a bit of freezing
rain. Some amount of wintry precipitation is to be expected, but
degree of impacts needs fine tuning. The system is rather quick
moving, exiting Tuesday morning. Should there be snow cover,
temperatures will become quite cold mid-week. Another messy
split stream pattern may set up late week which is responsible
for some low end PoPs.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1042 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

Cigs are expected to start lowering (though still VFR)
overnight. A system is coming through that will bring precip to
CGI and MVN starting a little later than expected around
14-18Z, expected to be primarily snow at MVN and possibly a
rain/snow mix at CGI. This system will take some time to move
east (due to a pocket of dry air) with the precip and so have
used PROB30s at PAH, EVV, and OWB for potential onset timing.
Precip at onset will likely be a mixture of rain/snow and
possibly even ice pellets. There is high uncertainty still
around these precip types and onset timing further east. Cigs
will lower gradually with the onset of precip at any terminal,
vsbys will also be affected (more so with snow than with rain).
Expect a transition to all rain around the afternoon/early
evening.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST tonight for
     ILZ075>078.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ATL
AVIATION...HICKFORD