582
FXUS63 KPAH 032336
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
636 PM CDT Tue Jun 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Breezy southerly winds and hazy skies from Canadian wildfire
  smoke will continue this afternoon. A Lake Wind Advisory
  continues until 7 PM CDT.

- An unsettled weather pattern will arrive Wednesday afternoon
  and will continue into early next week. Thunderstorms are
  likely (60-80%) Thursday and Friday, while there is a chance
  (20-40%) of showers and thunderstorms Saturday through Monday.

- While confidence is low, a few strong to severe thunderstorms
  are possible Friday, with damaging winds being the primary
  hazard.

- Periods of locally heavy rain are expected Wednesday afternoon
  through Friday night, with lighter rainfall amounts expected
  Saturday through Monday. Rainfall amounts of 1-2 inches are
  forecast across the area, and a few minor flooding issues
  cannot be ruled out.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 245 PM CDT Tue Jun 3 2025

Eastward retreating high pressure over the southeast CONUS is
bringing another breezy and very warm day to the region.
Lingering Canadian wildfire smoke continues to bring hazy skies
as well. A Lake Wind Advisory remains in effect through 24z
today for the entire forecast area.

A transition to a more unsettled weather pattern will commence
on Thursday as a frontal boundary sags southeastward and stalls
across the forecast area. Under zonal H5 flow, a series of
shortwave troughs will kick off scattered to numerous
thunderstorms beginning Wednesday night, continuing through
Thursday and Friday. At this time, the severe thunderstorm risks
look quite low Wednesday and Thursday, despite the SPC`s
marginal risks. Very poor mid-level lapse rates and very minor
shear values should prevent organized convection from developing
both days.

However, a more organized round of strong to severe
thunderstorms looks likely to impacts parts of the area on
Friday. This may be in the form of an MCS that develops in
western MO and pushes through the southern half of the forecast
area (SEMO south of US 60, southern IL south of Hwy 13, and WKY
south of I-69/WKY Parkway) Friday afternoon. SPC has this area
outlooks for a slight risk of severe thunderstorms. Shear
values look more respectable, which could allow for convection
to maintain itself. Damaging winds would be the primary threat
if a severe thunderstorm risk materializes.

The frontal boundary now looks to sag southward for this
weekend into early next week, and mainly along the KY/TN and
MO/AR borders. This will keep mainly light rain showers and
isolated thunderstorm activity confined to this region, while
locations further north stay dry. Given the southward shift with
the frontal boundary location this weekend and beyond, forecast
rainfall totals have trended downward across the area, mostly
1-2". A few pockets of isolated flooding issues are still
possible, but significant flooding appears unlikely.

Temperatures will remain about 3 to 5 degrees above normal today
and Wednesday, but will trend down to near normal values
Thursday through the end of the forecast period. Dew point
values will be seasonably moist, but nothing too excessive.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 633 PM CDT Tue Jun 3 2025

VFR conditions expected till late in the period. Upper level
smoke is still present and will be until tomorrow morning
(possibly till tomorrow afternoon). Thunderstorms are possible
late in the period (after 18Z) for CGI and MVN with MVFR cigs
and vsby with storms. Winds will shift to be out of the
southwest later tonight and through tomorrow at around 5-10 kts.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Lake Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ILZ075>078-
     080>094.
MO...Lake Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MOZ076-086-
     087-100-107>112-114.
IN...Lake Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT /8 PM EDT/ this evening for
     INZ081-082-085>088.
KY...Lake Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for KYZ001>022.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DWS
AVIATION...SHAWKEY