186
FXUS63 KPAH 232306
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
506 PM CST Sat Nov 23 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A warming trend will cause high temperatures to rebound into
  the 60s Sunday and Monday as high pressure builds over the
  region.

- Light rain showers are possible during the day Monday as a
  cold front pushes through. Colder temperatures 5 to 10
  degrees below normal are forecast through the remainder of the
  week.

- Low pressure will bring wet weather conditions late Wednesday
  through Thanksgiving Day. Between a quarter to one inch of
  rainfall is possible.

- A favorable pattern may support some of the coldest
  temperatures of the season beginning next weekend into early
  December. Multiple nights with temperatures well below
  freezing are possible.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 504 PM CST Sat Nov 23 2024

Updated Aviation discussion for 00Z TAF Issuance.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 141 PM CST Sat Nov 23 2024

Sfc high pressure located over the Deep South has been slow to
overcome the low stratus clouds today as a low-level inversion
below 900 mb has allowed for a saturated boundary layer to
prevail. As the inversion gradually erodes, the low stratus
clouds will scatter out and give way to increasing breaks of sun
this afternoon, with the exception of southwest Indiana. MaxTs
will range from the mid 40s to low 50s today.

A warming trend will follow Sunday into Monday as a 500 mb wave
ejects across the Rocky Mountains and supports a ridge axis
over the FA. This will allow for more sunshine on Sunday with
only some high cirrus clouds. Conditions will be a bit more
breezy due to an increase in the pressure gradient between the
aformentioned high pressure and a developing low pressure
associated with a cold front over the Central Plains. Southerly
winds between 10-15 mph are progged, especially during peak
heating in the afternoon. The drier air will allow for a much
warmer day with maxTs in the low to mid 60s after another chilly
morning with minTs in the low to mid 30s.

The synoptic flow turns more amplified on Monday to start off the
new week as a 500 mb shortwave moves towards the FA and
provides forcing for ascent. As the cold front begins to
approach from the NW Monday morning, scattered rain showers will
transverse SE through the day. Due to meager moisture
transport, QPF up to a tenth or two is progged by model guidance
at most. As fropa occurs Monday afternoon into Monday evening,
the brief warm up will quickly come to an end after a final day
of maxTs in the mid to upper 60s. By Monday night, near to
slightly below sub freezing minTs will be possible with robust
CAA due to NW flow. A much colder airmass will follow the cold
front through the remainder of the week with temps 5 to 10
degrees below normal. MaxTs will range from the low 40s to low
50s with minTs ranging from the upper 20s to mid 30s.

Tranquil conditions will not last for long as the pattern quickly
turns more unsettled and wet for the latter half of the week after
another area of high pressure builds over the FA on Tuesday. Brief
zonal flow aloft quickly turns more meridional again as another
500 mb shortwave moves onshore around Northern California and
ejects across the central Plains by Wednesday night. Model
consensus now brings sfc low pressure from Arkansas into western
Tennessee along a baroclinic zone setting the stage for a
rather wet Thanksgiving day.

NBM PoPs ramp up shower chances as early as Wednesday afternoon,
with likely PoPs progged for Wednesday night into Thursday with
periods of steady rain. It is worth noting the 12z deterministic
ECMWF and ensemble members have trended much deeper with a sub
1000 mb low over the FA that would mean more pcpn on Wednesday.
The GFS/CMC to a lesser extent has also trended towards the
ECMWF, but has less ensemble support. For now, would lean
towards QPF between a quarter to one inch, but higher amounts
would not be out of the question if the ECMWF ends up being
correct with a deeper low tracking more north.

While pcpn begins to taper off Thursday night, 850 mb temps
plummet to -10C by Friday as a deep trough aloft settles over
the FA. This may eventually translate to even colder conditions
next weekend with maxTs struggling to reach the lower 40s and
minTs well in the 20s. In fact, it is not out of the question
to see wind chills at least in the teens if not single digits
heading into early December!

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 504 PM CST Sat Nov 23 2024

Satellite shows the clearing line finally working across KEVV,
having just occurred at KOWB. SCT-BKN250 bases may occur after
clearing, at all terminals. Winds become light/nearly calm
tonight but as high pressure shifts east thru tmrw, gusty
southerlies return.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$