779
FXUS63 KPAH 031215
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
715 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Multiple rounds of additional thunderstorms will result in
  historically high forecast rainfall amounts, possibly as much
  as one foot in places. Significant and widespread flooding
  will likely develop across the Quad State through Sunday.

- Additional rounds of severe storms are possible this afternoon
  and evening, Friday afternoon and evening, and Friday night
  into Saturday. The most significant threat will be over
  southeast Missouri Friday night.

- Cool and mostly dry conditions are expected for the first half
  of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 404 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

MRMS indicates that 1 to 3 inches of rainfall fell last night
and early this morning over most of the Quad State. The primary
exception is over northern and western portions of southeast
Missouri where only around 0.75 inches fell. This round of rainfall
overproduced compared to forecast expectations, and WPC still
has another 6 to 10 inches from north to south across the Quad
State through Sunday morning. Therefore, after Round 1 of
storms, we are still on track for a historic heavy rainfall and
flooding event. No changes were made to the Flood Watch.

After a lull in the heavier precipitation this morning, Showers
and thunderstorms will develop back northward through the Quad
State this afternoon and then persist over the region through
the night. The front is expected to lift back northward into
the region tonight and continue north of the area Friday. As a
result, the focus for heavy rainfall will also shift northward
through the region during the day Friday and then may briefly
lift out of the area late Friday and early Friday evening. Flash
flooding problems will likely be fairly isolated across the
region through Friday, as another 1.5 to nearly 5 inches of
rain falls, but the heavy rainfall will act to fully saturate
the ground, setting the stage for what is to come this weekend.

The main flooding event is expected Friday night through
Saturday night, as the main upper system approaches and
eventually moves through the region. The heavy rainfall will
gradually spread eastward into southeast Missouri and southern
Illinois Friday night, and then across the rest of the area
Saturday. The heavy rainfall will finally come to an end from
the northwest Saturday night. The most widespread and
significant flash flooding is expected with this final round
Friday night through Saturday night. This final round of
thunderstorms and heavy rainfall will likely create
catastrophic flooding over some portions of the Quad State.
Areas that that do not normally flood and that have never been
known to flood before will flood. This will be a very dangerous
situation.

As for severe weather, the primary frontal boundary is expected
to remain south of the Quad State today, but it is expected to
lift back northward to near the Ohio River tonight. Instability
will be very limited north of the boundary, but to its south it
should be sufficient to support thunderstorms, and with the
expected shear, some severe storms will be possible. Damaging
winds and tornadoes will be possible in addition to large hail
roughly from New Madrid Missouri to Greenville Kentucky late
this afternoon and evening. Farther north large hail would be
the primary threat from Poplar Bluff Missouri to Owensboro
Kentucky.

There is a fairly strong signal in the 00Z HREF for a higher end
tornado environment to develop eastward into southeast Missouri
late Friday and Friday night. A strong, long-track tornado or
two will be possible southwest of a Van Buren to New Madrid
line, where the 00Z HREF has STP values up to 6! A lesser
tornado threat will exist over the remainder of the region, as
the front lifts north Friday afternoon and evening. Damaging
winds and large hail will also be possible.

All severe threats will be in play with storms near and south of
the front, roughly the southeast half of the Quad State,
Saturday. Thankfully, the higher end severe environment is
expected to remain south of the region Saturday.

A clipper system on the heels of this weekend`s system could
bring a few showers to the Evansville Tri State Monday. The
associated cold front will bring much cooler temperatures to the
region for Monday night and Tuesday. Much of the region could
experience a freeze Monday night and possibly again Tuesday
night. A disturbance in northwest flow aloft will bring a chance
of showers to the Quad State Wednesday as temperatures try to
climb back to normal levels.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 715 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

Showers and thunderstorms will spread north across the region
and become more intense through the day and through the night.
MVFR ceilings will lag behind the onset of the rain and may drop
to IFR or lower tonight. Northeast winds may gust 15-20kts this
afternoon and evening.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for ILZ075>078-080>094.
MO...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for MOZ076-086-087-100-
     107>112-114.
IN...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for INZ081-082-085>088.
KY...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for KYZ001>022.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DRS
AVIATION...DRS