412
FXUS63 KPAH 052333
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
533 PM CST Wed Feb 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered to numerous showers and isolated storms are expected through
  tonight, followed by lesser chances across mainly the
  southern half of the area on Thursday.

- Another system will spread rain back into the region Friday night
  through Saturday night, possibly accompanied by a few storms.

- Temperatures will be up and down through Saturday, before a cooler
  airmass becomes established Sunday into next week.

- A system early next week could pose some wintry weather for
  portions of the region, but uncertainty remains high with it.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 533 PM CST Wed Feb 5 2025

Updated Aviation discussion for the 00z TAF issuance.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 210 PM CST Wed Feb 5 2025

Flow aloft will be primarily zonal through the weekend. Meanwhile,
at the surface a boundary will continue to move back and forth
across the region through Saturday. Portions of the region become
warm-sectored tonight into Thursday and again on Saturday. With some
instability to work with, a few thunderstorms are possible during
each of this windows. Winds aloft really ramp up this evening and
overnight, with 850mb flow increasing to 50-55 kts along with a mid
level jet streak of 65-70 kts moving overhead. If storms can become
surface based, the potential is there for one or two to produce some
strong to severe wind gusts. Sufficient mid-level lapse rates of 6.5
C may also promote a hail threat. SPC has portions of west Kentucky
southeast of a Mayfield to Owensboro line outlooked in a marginal
risk. Timing would mainly be between 10 PM and 5 AM. More of a
babysitting event than anything else, but something that will need
monitoring overnight only in case.

Most of the showery activity should be confined to near the KY/TN
border Thursday morning. But additional activity may develop during
the afternoon and move across mainly the southern half of the region
through the evening. Temperatures on Thursday are a bit of challenge
with most guidance (particularly several of the CAMs) trending
cooler than previous forecasts. Highs may likely occur before
sunrise in most locations and then drop through the upper half of
the 40s or 50s for most of the daytime, except closer to the TN/AR
borders where 60 is still likely.

Northeasterly flow on Friday will lead to a chilly day in the 40s. A
warm front lifts north across the area resulting in some light
showers returning late in the day or evening before increasing in
coverage overnight. A surface low moves across Missouri into
Illinois on Saturday. The warm sector doesn`t appear as pronounced
as it once did, but 60s are possible for a decent part of the area.
If this occurs, dewpoints also likely would touch near 60. 0-6 km
shear values of at least 60 kts are present, but with limited amount
of surface instability depicted. Can`t rule out a few strong storms,
but it doesn`t look overly impressive at the moment. Timing would
mainly be late in the day or during the evening.

Cooler air funnels across the region Sunday and likely continues
through the majority of next week. Below normal temperatures are
expected with highs initially in the 40s on Sunday trending down
towards the 30s by mid next week. Flow aloft takes on more of a
southwesterly component as troughing digs across the center of the
country and ridging sets up over the southeast. A disturbance is
expected to move through Monday into Tuesday resulting in additional
precipitation chances. The highest QPF with this event may remain
south of us, but a good amount of uncertainty remains. Temperatures
may be cold enough for wintry weather for portions of our region.
Can`t rule out some accumulating snow, mainly during the Monday
night into Tuesday time period. It`s still too far out to get overly
concerned about it though. Just something to watch at the
moment.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 533 PM CST Wed Feb 5 2025

Widespread LIFR/IFR cigs and vsbys can be expected through
04-08z before isolated to scattered showers and perhaps a stray
thunderstorm will develop ahead of an approaching cold front.
Conditions will gradually life after 12z and the frontal
passage, but cigs will remain MVFR or IFR into the afternoon.

Steady E-SE winds will gradually become SW overnight, and
eventual N-NW around 10 kts following the front`s passages.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DWS
DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION...DWS