887
FXUS63 KPAH 081051
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
451 AM CST Fri Nov 8 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- After a dry end to the week, the next weather system remains
  on track to bring another round of rain over the weekend.
  Locally heavy rainfall is possible Saturday night into Sunday
  morning, especially across western Kentucky. Rainfall totals
  will range from a half inch to 1 to 2 inches, with locally
  higher amounts possible.

- Temperatures generally remain above normal into early next
  week with highs in the 60s to low 70s.

- Another cold front moves through the middle of next week that
  will bring another rain chance along with more seasonable
  temperatures for the latter half of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 123 AM CST Fri Nov 8 2024

An upper level ridge axis will be located over the FA this
morning as sfc high pressure builds across the Great Lakes
region. Out west, a potent 500 mb low over New Mexico will
eventually begin to eject east later today. Northeasterly flow
will allow for dewpoints to mix down into the lower 40s as
model soundings show a fairly dry column, except for a
saturated layer above 400 mb. This will support increasing high
level cirrus clouds across the FA with filtered sunshine. Did
lean slightly warmer than NBM with maxTs rising into the mid to
upper 60s. MinTs tonight are progged to fall into the mid to
upper 40s.

As the 500 mb energy lifts across the central Plains Saturday
morning, rapid height falls aloft combined with increasing
isentropic lift ahead of a trailing cold front will support
another round of rain showers and embedded thunder. Scattered
pcpn will spread across the FA from southwest to northeast
Saturday morning into Saturday afternoon. Models guidance now
shows a more enhanced band of pcpn developing Saturday night
into Sunday morning across portions of western Kentucky as the
frontal boundary slows down. Given an influx of theta-e and an
uptick in the moisture transport due to a LLJ, there may be a
short window where locally heavy rainfall can occur as the flow
becomes more parallel to the boundary with increasing 925-850 mb
frontogenesis.

The NAEFs ESAT is still indicating high return intervals for
PWATs above 1.75 inches that will support embedded torrential
downpours. Overall, 1 to 2 inches of QPF still looks reasonable
SE of the Ohio River, with locally higher amounts not ruled out.
Further NW, a sharp gradient will result in lower totals closer
to a half inch. Pcpn chances do begin to diminish by Sunday
afternoon into Sunday evening from west to east, followed by
fropa Sunday night. Temps remain above normal over the weekend
with maxTs generally in the 60s on Saturday and upper 60s to
lower 70s on Sunday.

By early next week, the synoptic flow aloft briefly turns more
zonal as a potent trough moves onshore the west coast and digs
across the central CONUS by Wednesday. The increase in
amplification and meridional flow eventually causes a cold front
to sweep across the FA with another risk of rain, followed by a
more seasonable airmass during the latter half of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 450 AM CST Fri Nov 8 2024

Winds have remained elevated enough this morning to inhibit
patchy fog development. After sunrise, VFR conditions are
expected through the remainder of the TAF period. High cirrus
clouds will continue to increase in coverage and thicken
tonight. The time heights in the low levels remain very dry into
Saturday morning as the next system now looks to hold off until
after 12z Saturday. Winds will be NE between 5-10 kts.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DW
AVIATION...DW