605
FXUS63 KPAH 061108
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
608 AM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mostly dry conditions are expected Saturday with increasing
  warmth and humidity.

- Humid and unsettled weather is forecast Sunday through
  Tuesday, with showers and thunderstorms likely (50-80%) each
  day peaking Sunday morning, and Monday evening. There remains
  a50-70% chance of at least one inch of rain falling during
  this period.

- Drier, but hot and humid conditions will arrive Wednesday into
  Thursday. Heat index values will approach or exceed 100
  degrees.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 104 AM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

After a long period of blocked up flow aloft with stable and dry
conditions a more pronounced pattern change appears to be
underway this weekend. Strong and broad troughing entering the
US west coast is moving a closed low over Texas northeastward
towards the area. Rain chances start to perk up ahead and under
this trough. Guidance is mostly dry for the day today but there
does appear to be some elevated instability available from
parcels around 700mb that may lead to a few stray showers in
the afternoon before chances peak Sunday morning with more
widespread shower and thunderstorm activity.

With modest jet-level ascent and at least some instability
shower and storm chances continue then until peaking once again
Monday afternoon. PWAT values will be about 1.8 to 2.0 but both
large scale ascent and instability for now look too limited for
a widespread heavy rain threat as the primary trigger for
showers and storms are a weakening upper shortwave and modest
lower layer warm advection. Severe weather also looks pretty
unlikely given the aforementioned weak instability and
relatively weak deep and low layer shear.

Once this system clears surface ridging sets up over its
climatological default position off the east coast and 500mb
heights increase to around 590 dm with light to moderate
southwesterly winds pumping in soupy air from the southwest as
summer time firmly grabs hold of the area for a few days.
Troughing over the north central US does look to potentially
send a front or weak ripples in the flow this way by the end of
the week. By Friday this system in 00z deterministic guidance
starts to line us up in a rainier stormier pattern once again.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 608 AM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

VFR conditions are forecast through the day. Isolated to
scattered showers will be possible overnight but probability
does seem to be trending lower and is too low for TAF mention
right now.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JGG
AVIATION...JGG