Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
528 FXUS63 KPAH 221909 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 109 PM CST Fri Nov 22 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Cooler than normal temperatures today will moderate to above normal Sunday into Monday. Light rain chances are possible Sunday night into Monday. - A return of cooler than normal temperatures are expected starting Tuesday and continuing through the Thanksgiving Holiday weekend. - Travel may be impacted by widespread rain across the region Thanksgiving Eve into Thanksgiving Day. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 109 PM CST Fri Nov 22 2024 Chilly northwest surface flow is moving across the quad-state this afternoon. A layer of clouds is trapped under an inversion set at about 3000 ft. Steady subsidence from strong ridging aloft is drying that layer and clouds should taper off by sunset in most places west of Evansville and Owensboro. Over the tri- state they look to be a bit more persistent. Winds should ease up tonight with mostly clear skies leading to a cold overnight period with lows approaching or slightly below freezing in areas that clear off. A heavy frost is also probable in these spots. We will be a bit warmer tomorrow with fairly light winds. Winds pick up out of the southwest as another storm system forms over the plains on Sunday with much warmer temperatures forecast. That plains storm results in fairly good moisture return and enough lift for precip on Monday or Monday night. The run-to-run continuity with this system has been fairly poor, but given the fairly cold dense airmass behind it I expect it will run ahead of schedule. With some upper convergence instability and overall lift looks a bit limited. There will probably be a focused area of showers and possibly a thunderstorm but the overall QPF looks pretty limited for now. A chilly and much drier airmass moves in behind the front as another storm system develops to our southwest through Thursday. The trend on this system has been a little further south all the time with PoPs and QPF trending downward a bit. With dry near surface air there may be a bit of snow at the onset of precipitation but all-rain looks to be the overwhelming majority of the event as the column saturates. Another front moves through Thursday night and this front looks quite formidable. Winds may keep overnight lows up a bit Thursday night but the current forecast for Friday and Saturday morning has highs in the mid 40s and lows in the lower 20s. This would be about 15 degrees below normal, which will be a stark contrast to the last few weeks which have been about 15 degrees above normal. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1108 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024 Broken to overcast deck around 2800-3200 ft in the west and 1800-2200 ft in the east may erode a bit from west to east through the afternoon while also very slowly/slightly lowering in height. MVFR conditions look likely at all sites parts of the day with the most persistent lower cigs at EVV/OWB and vicinity. They should clear out west of EVV/OWB by sunset which may allow for some ground fog in the early morning as the winds slacken around CGI and vicinity. An improvement to full VFR is currently forecast for Saturday morning at all sites. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JGG AVIATION...JGG