528
FXUS63 KPAH 221909
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
109 PM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cooler than normal temperatures today will moderate to above normal
  Sunday into Monday. Light rain chances are possible Sunday
  night into Monday.

- A return of cooler than normal temperatures are expected
  starting Tuesday and continuing through the Thanksgiving
  Holiday weekend.

- Travel may be impacted by widespread rain across the region
  Thanksgiving Eve into Thanksgiving Day.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 109 PM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

Chilly northwest surface flow is moving across the quad-state
this afternoon. A layer of clouds is trapped under an inversion
set at about 3000 ft. Steady subsidence from strong ridging
aloft is drying that layer and clouds should taper off by sunset
in most places west of Evansville and Owensboro. Over the tri-
state they look to be a bit more persistent. Winds should ease
up tonight with mostly clear skies leading to a cold overnight
period with lows approaching or slightly below freezing in areas
that clear off. A heavy frost is also probable in these spots.

We will be a bit warmer tomorrow with fairly light winds. Winds
pick up out of the southwest as another storm system forms over
the plains on Sunday with much warmer temperatures forecast.
That plains storm results in fairly good moisture return and
enough lift for precip on Monday or Monday night. The run-to-run
continuity with this system has been fairly poor, but given the
fairly cold dense airmass behind it I expect it will run ahead
of schedule. With some upper convergence instability and overall
lift looks a bit limited. There will probably be a focused area
of showers and possibly a thunderstorm but the overall QPF
looks pretty limited for now.

A chilly and much drier airmass moves in behind the front as
another storm system develops to our southwest through Thursday.
The trend on this system has been a little further south all the
time with PoPs and QPF trending downward a bit. With dry near
surface air there may be a bit of snow at the onset of
precipitation but all-rain looks to be the overwhelming majority
of the event as the column saturates.

Another front moves through Thursday night and this front looks
quite formidable. Winds may keep overnight lows up a bit
Thursday night but the current forecast for Friday and Saturday
morning has highs in the mid 40s and lows in the lower 20s. This
would be about 15 degrees below normal, which will be a stark
contrast to the last few weeks which have been about 15 degrees
above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1108 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

Broken to overcast deck around 2800-3200 ft in the west and
1800-2200 ft in the east may erode a bit from west to east
through the afternoon while also very slowly/slightly lowering
in height. MVFR conditions look likely at all sites parts of the
day with the most persistent lower cigs at EVV/OWB and
vicinity. They should clear out west of EVV/OWB by sunset which
may allow for some ground fog in the early morning as the winds
slacken around CGI and vicinity. An improvement to full VFR is
currently forecast for Saturday morning at all sites.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JGG
AVIATION...JGG