248
FXUS63 KPAH 240634
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
134 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Heat Advisory remains in effect through Friday for daily
  peak heat index values of 100 to 107. The prolonged heat wave
  may continue into the weekend.

- Daily isolated chances of showers and storms during peak
  heating will provide brief and limited relief from the heat
  wave. Locally torrential downpours and lightning is possible.

- True relief from the heat wave still looks to arrive early
  next week with a greater risk of showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 134 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025

The synoptic details remain persistent with the western extent of a
597 dam ridge peaking over the FA today before gradually breaking
down beginning Wednesday. The subtle increase in heights today
should help to suppress isolated diurnal convection more west,
favoring southeast Missouri and southern Illinois with the
greatest risk. Like yesterday, any storm that does develop will
be capable of causing locally torrential downpours and
lightning. The risk shifts slightly back southeast on Wednesday
due to the weakening ridge of high pressure.

As for the prolonged heat wave, daily high temperatures in the
low to mid 90s with lows in the low to mid 70s continue daily.
Due to meager mixing in the boundary layer, dewpoints will
remain more elevated well into the 70s. Did run with CONSMOS for
temperatures through Wednesday as the NBM continues to play
catch up with cloud cover and pcpn chances. Today is a perfect
example as there will be a combination of high cirrus and
cumulus that will allow for intervals of filtered sunshine. Heat
index values of 100 to 107 remain progged daily, but outflow
boundaries associated with any convection will help to provide
brief and limited relief.

The NBM keeps the heatwave cranking into the upcoming weekend,
but gradually trends peak heat index values closer to 100 each
day. Daily low chances of showers and storms continue, and the
increased cloud cover helps to keep high temperatures in the
lower 90s. Pcpn chances turn more robust over the weekend as
deep-layer moisture from the Gulf begins to advect north that
will support PWAT values of 1.75 to 2.00 inches. Combined with
sfc mixing ratios of 18 to 20 g/kg, would not be surprised to
see a greater risk of torrential downpours that will be capable
of causing localized runoff on roadways in low-lying areas due
to very weak shear. Both the GFS and ECMWF still suggest a cold
front arrives early next week that will bring true relief from
the heat wave. The synoptic details are still murky over the
weekend if the Heat Advisory will need to be extended beyond
Friday, but the current NBM continues to support that
possibility.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 850 PM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025

For the 06z TAFs, added PROB30 groups from 18-24z for TS to MVN
and EVV based on latest short term model guidance. Otherwise,
expecting SKC or FEW250 conditions overnight followed by diurnal
CU developing after 14z with bases around 3kft initially, rising
to 5kft after 18z. Light/steady S winds at 3-6 kts overnight
will be come SW around 4-8 kts during the afternoon. Skies will
clear and winds relax after 24z.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Friday for ILZ075>078-080>094.
MO...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Friday for MOZ076-086-087-100-
     107>112-114.
IN...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT /8 PM EDT/ Friday for INZ081-082-
     085>088.
KY...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Friday for KYZ001>022.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DW
AVIATION...DWS