Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
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057 FXUS63 KPAH 092317 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 517 PM CST Sat Nov 9 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and possibly a few thunderstorms will increase tonight into Sunday, before their departure Sunday PM. Upwards to 2 inches storm total rainfall is possible over portions of southern Kentucky, with lesser amounts to the northwest. - Seasonally mild temperatures with 60s and 70s covers the entirety of the forecast, with the next chance of rain incoming by mid week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 517 PM CST Sat Nov 9 2024 Updated Aviation discussion for the 00z TAF issuance. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1254 PM CST Sat Nov 9 2024 A low pressure storm system will lift from the Central Plains to the Great Lakes by this time tomorrow. There is enough moisture (ample), instability (minimal), and lift (moderate) to keep our slight chance of thunder mention, but the primary consideration is rainfall. Up to 2 inches of storm total rainfall is still a possibility for portions of southern Ky, with the heaviest banding late tonight into early Sunday morning. Lesser amounts, even to minimal amounts, are possible further northwest. The system continues to lift and trek to the east and northeast with time, as high pressure fills in its wake. This will draw in drier air and end our pops west-to-east late tmrw pm/evening. With a zonal flow, there is no exceptionally "cold" airmass incoming with the high, so max temperatures will actually rebound into the lower 70s tmrw as things clear out. We go a little more northerly with the flow around the high early in the work week, so nighttime temps cool down to the 40s and the diurnal rebound yields a returns highs in the 60s, but they still run seasonal or even a little above seasonal norms leading to our next chance of pcpn incoming by mid week. It`s a quick mid week system passage with dry conditions returning and seasonally mild temperatures continuing to finish out the week. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 517 PM CST Sat Nov 9 2024 Widespread showers will continue to push across the region overnight through much of Sunday. Cloud bases will lower to MVFR and eventually IFR as low-level saturation increases. Vsbys reductions from rain will be mainly low VFR, though brief MVFR conditions are possible. Cannot rule out isolated lightning activity, but the chance was too low to mention at this time. We will see improvement from NW to SE through the day Sunday as the rain and low clouds depart. E-SE winds overnight will become SW Sunday morning and afternoon, mainly at 5-10 kts. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ UPDATE...DWS DISCUSSION...DH AVIATION...DWS