054
FXUS63 KPAH 061738
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1238 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Some severe thunderstorm threat exists later this morning and
  into the afternoon - although rain cooled air may mitigate
  this risk somewhat. The main hazard would be damaging winds
  and isolated tornadoes.

- Another severe weather risk may emerge during the day Saturday
  with damaging winds and isolated tornadoes the primary risk,
  but there are also questions about heating and overall
  destabilization given convective coverage.

- Periods of heavy rainfall are expected through Saturday.
  Additional rainfall amount of 1 to 2 inches are forecast, with
  localized higher amounts possible. A few minor flooding issues
  remain possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 152 AM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

A stationary and somewhat diffuse front sits from about Poplar
Bluff northeastward to Evansville. Southeast of the front
surface dewpoints run from 70-73 degrees F. Modified soundings
and SPC mesoanalysis show about 1500 J/kg of MLCAPE with fairly
high freezing levels and poor mid level lapse rates. There is a
bit of lower level shear at 18-20 kts with deep layer shear at a
sufficient westerly 30 kts. A couple of small cells have started
to form in southeast Missouri. There is a weak ripple in the
jet over SE KS and SW MO that convection (MCS over northern
Oklahoma) appears to help enhance over the next few hours. This
wave will strengthen our lower-level wind fields and advect
slightly richer boundary layer moisture into the area and
provide at least some larger scale ascent to focus convection.

With little capping (as evidenced by the ongoing showers/storms)
convective coverage may be too great too fast for ideal
destabilization. The passage of the wave also looks to be too
early to take advantage of peak heating. There is a window where
some severe weather risk (wind and isolated tornado) may emerge
in the late morning to early afternoon but probably the wave is
going to be too early in the day and the thunderstorm/rain
coverage too great for a significant episode like what would be
rendered with 2500-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE in this shear environment.
HRRR/RAP keep some scattered storms in play through the
afternoon even after the wave passes which makes sense given the
72-74 degree projected dewpoints over the south half of the
area and the presumptive sunshine that may emerge behind this
weak leading wave. The best risk per square mile in our CWA is
probably over the southern Pennyrile today sometime after lunch.
PWATs are still 1.9 to 2.0" so rainfall rates will be very
efficient in the warm and moist airmass.

Saturday a stronger shortwave works in from the northwest. The
leading jet max on this system works in tangent with the
approaching height trough to create broad ascent most of the day
Saturday. This may result in another situation where we have too
much convection to soon for significant destabilization but
this convection will be occurring in an area getting at least
some steepening of mid-level lapse rates and what look to be
more favorable kinematic fields for damaging wind and a few
tornadoes as a weak surface low forms over IN/IL. The position
of these fields seems to suggest at least some scattered severe
cells or MCS potential but very divergent CAM solutions point
towards another fairly narrow window where the higher
probability of more organized weather appears to the south of
our CWA. PWATs remain very high and at the end of a multiple day
event flash flooding could become a little more of a concern.

The trend kind of then seems to be the front swings through and
gets out of our hair for Sunday but there is another shortwave
moving in from the northwest, particularly in the GFS guidance
that would produce at least some rain potential. The GFS is also
less aggressive in how far south the front and the humidity to
its south goes compared to the ECMWF, but both seem a little
further south than they did last night.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

Convection this afternoon and MVFR/IFR cig/visby will be the
main aviation concerns. A decaying MCS is moving through AR/MO
and will spark renewed TSRA ahead of it this afternoon. This
activity will bring restrictions to cigs and visby this
afternoon. Convection diminishes and moves east of the
terminals after 00z tonight with a lull in activity expected.
Low stratus and fog is becoming increasingly likely in the
guidance for most sites tonight. While visibility will improve
Saturday morning, low cigs may continue. Winds should be around
5 knots or less outside of any TSRA activity.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JGG
AVIATION...AD