167
FXUS63 KPAH 250819
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
219 AM CST Mon Nov 25 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light rain showers will develop today ahead of an approaching
  cold front. Temperatures will begin to fall this afternoon as
  much colder air arrives behind the front.

- A second system will move through the region Wednesday into
  early Thanksgiving Day, bringing another round of light rain
  showers and chilly temperatures.

- A wave of well below normal temperatures will arrive after
  Thanksgiving through next weekend. While no impactful winter
  weather is expected, some light snow showers are possible
  next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 219 AM CST Mon Nov 25 2024

Today through Tuesday night...As a weak surface low moves
northeast through the Midwest into the Great Lakes, an
associated cold front will push through the region today through
tonight. Light rain showers will develop ahead of the front,
mainly this afternoon as the region comes under more favorable
upper-level diffluence. Rainfall totals will be quite light,
generally a tenth of an inch or less. Temperatures will warm
well above normal this morning, into the lower to middle 60s.
However, areas of southeast MO and southern IL will see
temperatures falling back into the 50s this afternoon as the
colder air arrives.

Clearing skies and a much colder airmass will allow
temperatures to fall into the upper 20s to lower 30s tonight.
Early Tuesday AM wind chill values will dip into the 20s.
Tuesday afternoon will be sunny and chilly, with high
temperatures warming into the upper 40s to lower 50s.

Wednesday through Thanksgiving/Thursday night...A second system
looks to impact the region on Thanksgiving Eve into Thanksgiving
Day. However, there wave been some adjustments to the forecast
based on that latest deterministic and ensemble forecast model
data. This system, which will organize over the southern Great
Plains and pass through the Mid-South, continues to trend in a
weaker and quicker direction.

This means that rainfall amounts have been reduced again, with
a good part of the region only forecast to see 0.10-0.25", with
locally higher amounts up to 0.50" possible over the southern
KY Pennyrile. The quicker tempo with this system also means that
the bulk of the rain will fall Wednesday night into early
Thanksgiving morning, with only a slight chance to chance of
rain during the afternoon hours.

Cannot rule out some brief mixing with snow as the
precipitation ends, but no accumulation is expected.
Temperatures on Wednesday will moderate a bit, with highs
returning to the lower to middle 50s. Colder air will filter
into the region on Thanksgiving as the system departs, and high
temperatures will only reach the lower to middle 40s.

Friday through Sunday night...Long range ensemble guidance
remains in good agreement that a wave of well below normal
temperatures will push into the area after Thanksgiving through
at least next weekend. Temperatures continue to look to be
about 10-20 degrees below normal values, which will result in
high temperatures in the upper 30s/lower 40s on Friday and
Saturday, and highs only in the lower to middle 30s by next
Sunday. Overnight lows look to be in the teens and 20s, and
morning wind chill values in the single digits and teens look
likely. The core of the coldest temperatures may actually arrive
in the 8-10 day window, so even colder temperatures cannot be
ruled out down the line.

Another wrinkle that will need to be watch will be the
potential for a weak clipper system that could bring some snow
showers to the area Saturday night into Sunday. This system
looks weak and moisture starved at this time, so even if we do
see snow, it will amount to a dusting at most.


&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 408 PM CST Sun Nov 24 2024

A cold front`s approach will lead to deteriorating conditions
with time. Bases increase and lower, with restricted CIGS in
play by/before daybreak. As the front moves in tmrw, anticipate
gusty south winds to become more southwesterly on approach with
MVFR bases lowering/yielding to IFR bases at times. An
attendant chance of showers is included for the daytime fropa,
albeit mainly in the planning phase of the forecast. Winds will
shift to gusty northwesterly after the fropa/brief window of a
shower chance along/ahead of it, toward the end of the day or by
early evening further east (KEVV-KOWB).

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DWS
AVIATION...DH