519
FXUS63 KPAH 141112
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
612 AM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Transitioning to a warmer pattern, highs reach the lower 90s
  over the weekend.

- Chances for afternoon rain/storms will be possible this week
  with the highest chances across southern portions of the area
  Wednesday/Thursday and in the northeast Friday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 611 AM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

Updated the aviation section for the 12Z TAF issuance.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 206 AM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

A very strong elongated upper ridge has brought all-time record
highs to several sites in the Mountain West. High pressure over
the middle of the country will steer the worst of the heat
across the Northern Plains to the Great Lakes. A stalled out low
pressure disturbance over Alabama, with a west-east stationary
boundary in the Deep South will largely keep precipitation to
our south through midweek. Only a slight chance of
showers/storms covers southernmost portions of the Quad State
this afternoon, with limited model support.

The Deep South low drifts northwestward towards the Mid-South
tomorrow. North of this disturbance, winds through the Quad
State Wednesday will be easterly. Precip chances increase, with
SEMO favored across a majority of models. Primarily diurnally
driven, with decent CAPE but trivial shear, pulse storms will
yield very little strong to severe weather potential. PWs of
2.2in will yield heavy rain rates but training is limited.

Slow continued drifting of the disturbance will yield diurnal
chances of showers/storms Thursday and Friday as well, with
Friday favoring the northeast as the system moves towards the
Ohio River Valley. Weakening of the ridge in the east may
bolster precip chances with a weak shortwave disturbance Friday
night into early Saturday. At this time, some of the warmest
conditions are projected to occur over the weekend with highs in
the lower 90s. HeatRisk maxes out Friday-Saturday in moderate
(level 2). A system moving through the Great Lakes early next
week could bring a cold front into the Quad State, though models
vary on positioning.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 611 AM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

SCT cloud coverage develops in the southern half of the Quad
State today, with higher end MVFR clouds rising to low end VFR
midday. A few showers or storms are possible in the far south
near Tennessee or Arkansas. Winds increase to 6-8kts out of the
E/ENE today, then become calm tonight.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ATL
DISCUSSION...ATL
AVIATION...ATL