089
FXUS63 KPAH 210020
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
720 PM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures will generally be a few degrees below normal over
  the next week. Expect highs in the 80s and lows in the 60s.

- Intermittent small chances (15-30%) of showers and
  thunderstorms are forecast from Saturday through much of next
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 207 PM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

A weak cold front has been slow to move south into/through the
Quad State today. A few showers have recently developed along it
from near Evansville Indiana to near Benton Illinois. These
isolated showers and possibly a few thunderstorms will likely
bounce around along the boundary as it slowly moves south, to
the east of the Mississippi River this afternoon. It should be
done by 00Z. Brief heavy downpours and a few lightning strikes
will be the main concerns.

The Quad State will be under northwest flow aloft through the
next week. The 12Z guidance brings disturbances through the
area with some chance of showers and storms, but there is no
agreement on the details of timing and location. It does appear
that tonight and Friday will be dry, but after that the NBM has
small chance PoPs (15-30%) thrown in somewhere across the Quad
State just about every period. Looking at the ensembles, there
is a near 100% chance that the entire Quad State will receive
measurable rainfall at some point through next Thursday. So,
expect PoPs to increase once the individual disturbances show
themselves more clearly.

With the northwest flow aloft periodically bringing fresh shots
of cooler, drier air through the Quad State, temperatures will
generally remain below normal through the next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 639 PM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

The main impact with this TAF issuance will come from fog
potential overnight into early Friday morning. Visibilities may
drop as low as a quarter to half mile at times, especially where
the heaviest rain fell the past couple days. Winds will be light
and variable. Improving conditions can be expected after
sunrise.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DRS
AVIATION...KC