920
FXUS63 KPAH 071905
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
205 PM CDT Mon Apr 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Significant flooding continues across the area due to
  extremely high rainfall amounts experienced over the past
  week. Many rivers will crest in moderate to major levels, with
  a few near record levels.

- A freeze is expected across the region tonight, with a chilly
  day on tap for Tuesday with highs struggling to reach 50 in
  some areas.

- Rain chances return mid-week, primarily Wednesday night
  through Thursday. Overall amounts look light though, generally
  0.25" or less most areas.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 204 PM CDT Mon Apr 7 2025

A secondary boundary makes passage this evening, accompanied by some
clouds. A few models try to spit out some sprinkles across southwest
IN into west KY, which can`t be ruled out. Otherwise, the main
impact will be well below normal temperatures tonight as 850mb Ts
drop into the -4 to -7 C range. NBM probabilities are quite high for
sub-freezing temperatures across the northern 2/3rds of the cwa. May
be some locales near TN and AR borders that remain just above
though. There`s also a good chance (50-70%) that some locations in
southern IL or southwest IN experience a hard freeze (28 or colder).

High pressure overhead on Tuesday will provide plenty of sunshine,
but it will be quite chilly. NBM probabilities are quite low for
highs reaching 50 across the EVV/OWB areas, with most of the region
only topping out in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Another cold night
is on tap for tomorrow night, but readings should be around 3 to 5
degrees warmer in most areas. Right now expecting primarily mid 30s,
but could be some low 30s still across the eastern 1/3 to 1/2 of the
region.

The mid-upper level flow will primarily be out of the northwest this
week. Shortwave energy is forecast to dive southeastward from the
Northern Plains on Wednesday with the initial batch of precip
possibly impacting far northern parts of the cwa on Wednesday. A
frontal boundary moves through Wednesday night accompanied by a good
chance for light to moderate rain showers. MUCAPE is present as well
so could see a few rumbles of thunder.

Another lobe of energy rotates through the 500mb flow on Thursday,
leading to another round of rain showers during the afternoon and
evening. Once again could see some isolated thunderstorm potential
given some instability present.

NBM probabilities for receiving 0.50" of rain this week only range
from 10% in southeast MO to around 40% in parts of the KY Pennyrile
and southwest IN. So at least we aren`t talking about significant
rainfall amounts from this system as we attempt to dry out from last
weeks historic deluge!

Upper level troughing settles overhead Friday into Saturday,
resulting in well below normal temperatures returning. Highs may
remain in the 50s for much of the area on Friday and will only be
slightly warmer on Saturday. Can`t rule out some lingering showers
on the backside of the system for Friday. Otherwise the weekend
looks dry. Upper ridging pushes in Sunday resulting in temperatures
rebounding. Even warmer readings are expected on Monday. In fact,
NBM probabilities even depict around a 50% chance for highs around
80 for southwest parts of the region.

General consensus amongst guidance is for another system to spread
rain chances back into the region sometime early next week. Could be
Monday into Monday night or it may hold off until Tuesday. Good news
is there are no significant heavy rain or severe storm chances on
the horizon for now. We certainly could use a very long extended
break from those!

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1202 PM CDT Mon Apr 7 2025

VFR conditions through this TAF package. Northwest winds this
afternoon may be gusty at times around 15-18 kts. A secondary
boundary pushes through this evening accompanied by some mid
cloud bases. Winds turn more northerly and eventually
northeasterly with time through the night into tomorrow. Looks
like a 3 to 4 hour window this evening that we may mix some
gusts of 15-20 kts down to the surface as the boundary drifts
southward.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Tuesday for
     ILZ075>078-080>094.
MO...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Tuesday for
     MOZ076-086-087-100-107>112-114.
IN...Freeze Warning from midnight CDT /1 AM EDT/ tonight to 9 AM
     CDT /10 AM EDT/ Tuesday for INZ081-082-085>088.
KY...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Tuesday for
     KYZ001>022.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION...SP