814
FXUS63 KPAH 241756
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1256 PM CDT Sat May 24 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Storm total rainfall through Tuesday may exceed 3 inches in
  the SEMO Ozarks, which heightens the risk of localized
  flooding.

- The potential for organized strong to severe storms this
  weekend into next week remains mainly to our south and west.

- Unseasonably cool temperatures this weekend warm closer to
  seasonal norms by the middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 146 AM CDT Sat May 24 2025

The quasi-stationary surface boundary looks like it stays well
to our south this weekend, even as high pressure slides off to
the east. Energy spilling out of the Plains will shoot overtop
the still lingering upper level ridge, promoting mostly elevated
convective chances into our south and west with time. Each round
of showers/potential storms will be tied into these shoots of
energy, with the first such ongoing. We`ll see a (relative) pause
with its departure later this afternoon-evening, before chances
pick up again tonight as another offshoot of energy spills in.
By Sunday evening, this muddies up the upper flow and we go more
zonal, which allows the next successive advection of energy to
impact mostly the lower MS Valley but still yields high pops
here. The repeat waves may add up to 3" locally in our Ozark
counties, with lesser amounts north and east from there,
trailing to about 1/4-1/2" in our farthest northeast counties.
As a result of this trend toward the boundary staying south and
west, the stronger storms should trend there too, with the heavy
rain/localized flooding hazard potential isolated mainly to the
Ozarks.

Being on the cool side of the boundary and having the cloud
cover from the successive rounds of pcpn, we`ll continue with
below normal temps thru the weekend into Memorial Day. Dew
points do creep up, into the 50s with some 60F readings into
our AR/TN border counties. Afterward, a warming trend allows for
a return to more seasonable highs in the mid and upper 70s for
the middle and latter portion of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1201 PM CDT Sat May 24 2025

VFR conditions will likely linger through this evening before
ceilings steadily lower overnight and especially into the day
Sunday. MVFR conditions are expected Sunday morning as yet
another round of rain arrives. Winds are expected to remain
fairly light at or around 10kts through this TAF issuance. While
some thunder is possible, confidence in it occurring at any of
the TAF sites is low enough keep out of this issuance.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...KC