641
FXUS63 KPAH 060727
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
227 AM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Heat Advisory is in effect until 8 PM tonight for portions
  of southeast Missouri and west Kentucky, generally south of a
  Greenville Missouri to Murray Kentucky line. Heat index values
  in the Advisory area will reach 100 to 105 degrees.

- Labor Day will be the choice day of the weekend, with highs
  around 90, much less humidity, and a light northeast wind.
  Another major warming trend begins Tuesday and continues
  Wednesday, when high temperatures will be 95 to 100, and heat
  index values will climb into the 100 to 105 degree range.

- Dry conditions are expected through Wednesday, then a cold
  front will pass Wednesday night into Thursday and bring a
  30-50% chance of showers and thunderstorms to the entire Quad
  State.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 227 AM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

The northeast winds are developing southward early this
morning, as surface high pressure begins to build through the
Quad State. However, the cooling and drying surge seems a bit
slow to arrive. The NBM has trended back up with temperatures
and heat indices today. Therefore, we have added a handful of
counties to today`s Heat Advisory. It now roughly covers the
area south of a Greenville Missouri to Murray Kentucky line.
This should be the end of the heat headlines for a few days, if
not a significantly longer period.

The less hot temperatures and low dewpoints in the upper 50s are
still expected across the entire region for Labor Day.
Unfortunately, the upper ridge will begin to build back over
the Quad State Monday and south winds at the surface will return
on Tuesday. This will lead to another warming trend Tuesday
through Wednesday. Temperatures will climb back into the middle
90s Tuesday and the 95-100 degree range Wednesday. Dewpoints
will rebound into the 60s, but even on Wednesday heat indices
will only reach the 100-105 range, which would not require a
Heat Advisory.

The ridge will give way to weak zonal flow allowing a cold front
and with a decent chance of showers and thunderstorms to move
through the Quad State at some point Wednesday night into
Thursday. The NBM currently has PoPs ranging from 30% in the
south to 50% in the north. While there is QPF throughout the
region, it is generally a half inch or less, which is not
exactly going to reverse our current dry spell.

The weak zonal flow aloft will continue Friday through next
weekend. Temperatures will trend back to normal or just
slightly above. The zonal flow aloft will seriously muddle the
precipitation chances and timing. For now, the NBM has small
chances nearly everyday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1148 PM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

Calm winds may produce some vsby drops to MVFR at
climatologically favored sites like KCGI until northeasterly
winds move in late tonight. A band of SCT-BKN MVFR clouds moves
in near sunrise, with coverage greatest in the northeast.
Northeasterly winds remain through the day, sustained at 7-10kts
in the afternoon as cigs lift to VFR.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ100-107>112-
     114.
IN...None.
KY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KYZ001>003-006-
     009.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DRS
AVIATION...ATL