245
FXUS63 KPAH 042002
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
202 PM CST Tue Nov 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Seasonable temperatures and dry conditions are forecast through
  Thursday.

- A cold front will bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms to
  the area on Friday, a few stronger storms can`t be ruled out.

- A significant cool down is expected early next week, with lows
  falling below freezing for the first time this year. Highs may
  struggle to reach the low 40s on Monday and wind chills in the
  mornings may dip into the upper teens to lower 20s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 201 PM CST Tue Nov 4 2025

Surface low pressure will shift east across the Great Lakes on
Wednesday, with a trailing dry cold front passing through our
region. High pressure will be centered overhead Wednesday night into
Thursday. Temperatures remain slightly above normal (mid 60s) behind
the frontal passage on Thursday, although it will be about 5-7
degrees cooler than Wednesday will be.

Late in the week shortwave energy diving across the central CONUS
will result in a deepening 500mb trough shifting across our region.
The trough will amplify further this weekend into early next week as
additional shortwaves dive into the Ohio Valley.

The best chance for rain looks to occur with the first system Friday
as a cold front pushes southeast across our cwa. While the main
energy and surface low will be displaced well to our northeast,
there appears to be enough forcing and moisture present to generate
a band of showers along with a few thunderstorms during the day on
Friday, possibly lingering into the evening in the far east. Wind
fields are more than sufficient to support stronger storms, but the
main question is how much instability is realized. Today`s guidance
has trended upwards with respect to CAPE, with NBM now suggesting
500-700 J/kg possible across west KY Friday afternoon. If this trend
holds, then it`s quite possible a few strong to severe storms may
develop on Friday afternoon, with west Kentucky and southwest
Indiana most favored. The CSU-MLP severe probabilities are
suggesting a 15% area across our eastern cwa, with the bullseye
being more from central KY down into mid TN. Could come down to
timing as well, with a slightly faster frontal passage shifting the
primary severe potential to our east. Doesn`t look overly
concerning, but something to monitor nonetheless.

Another front sinks south across our area Saturday night resulting
in much cooler air funneling in on Sunday and even more so Sunday
night into Monday. This looks like our coldest airmass of the season
so far, with our first freeze looking highly likely. Current
forecast has lows falling into the 20s both Sunday and Monday
nights. Highs on Monday may struggle to reach much above 40 degrees.
During the transition period, some light rain can`t be ruled out
Saturday night through Sunday, but the bulk of this appears to
remain north of our area. Within the strong cold air advection, its
possible that a few light rain or even snow showers may develop
Sunday night into Monday morning. While its possible our first
snowflakes of the season could occur, no impacts are expected.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1126 AM CST Tue Nov 4 2025

Main issue this TAF package will be LLWS concerns later this
evening and overnight as 2kft winds increase to 40-45 kts.
Southerly winds may gust around 15 kts this afternoon,
primarily at KCGI/KMVN. A dry cold front makes passage tomorrow
and additional gusts in the 15-20 kt range are likely by later
morning out of the southwest before winds switch around to the
WNW in the afternoon. Some SCT high cloud will stream across
the region through the period.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SP
DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION...SP