884
FXUS63 KPAH 200405
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1105 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Heat Advisory continues this afternoon with heat indices over
  100.

- Showers and storms possible this afternoon and evening with
  the possibility of heavy downpours and downbursts.

- Near normal temps and drier weather Wednesday through the
  weekend, then slightly below normal temps to start off next
  week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1056 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025

Updated aviation discussion for 06z TAFs.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 209 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025

A Heat Advisory is still in effect this afternoon for continued heat
indices of 100-115. Upper level ridging is breaking down this
afternoon with the passage of a shortwave aloft. This will bring a
cold front through the area this afternoon and evening from north to
south. There is a Marginal Excessive Rainfall Outlook for this
afternoon with PWATs of 1.7 to 1.9. This means there could be heavy
downpours at times within these storms. SPC has us in a Marginal
Risk for severe weather today for downburst potential. Current
mesoanalysis supports 3,500 to 4,500 J/kg of SBCAPE across the area,
with little to no bulk shear, and low level lapse rates of around
8.5 degC/km along with the presence of inverted V soundings. This
all suggests the potential for strong winds via downbursts of
collapsing pulse storms.

Behind the front expect near normal temperatures through Sunday and
drier conditions. Highs will be in the mid 80s to lower 90s through
Sunday. Another cold front comes through late Saturday night into
Sunday and brings even cooler temperatures to start off the week.
Highs will be in the upper 70 to lower 80s with overnight lows in
the 50s!

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1056 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025

Scattered convection continues to slowly sink south across the
region late this evening, primarily impacting KCGI/KPAH
terminals. Coverage should steadily decrease after 06z, becoming
more isolated. MVFR cigs may develop across portions of the
region overnight into Tuesday morning, but confidence on
placement and duration aren`t great. Light winds overnight will
become NNE around 8-11 kts on Tuesday, with some gusts in the
15-18 kt range possible during the afternoon. Skies should
eventually become mostly clear by tomorrow evening.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SP
DISCUSSION...HICKFORD
AVIATION...SP