653
FXUS63 KPAH 212229
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
529 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few severe thunderstorms remain possible through 7PM this
  evening with isolated to scattered thunderstorm coverage.
  Strong damaging wind gusts around 60-70 mph is the greatest
  concern along with isolated large hail near 1 inch. An
  isolated tornado is also possible, especially over southwest
  Indiana. Torrential downpours may lead to poor drainage and
  runoff on roadways.

- The Extreme Heat Warning remains in effect through 7PM this
  evening. Heat index values are being observed between 110 to
  116 degrees. Significant relief arrives for the second half of
  the week with temperatures cooling 10 degrees below normal.

- Rain chances return Friday and continue on and off into early
  next week. Some additional severe weather potential is
  possible between Sunday and next Tuesday. The heat and
  humidity also returns.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

The greatest heat impacts are now occurring across the FA this
afternoon as a cold front begins to approach the FA from the
northwest. A deep 500 mb trough is also digging into the Ohio Valley
and will bring a significantly cooler airmass for the second half of
the week with temperatures falling 10 degrees below normal. Highs
will range from the upper 70s to lower 80s Wednesday through Friday.
In the meantime, there is the potential for a few severe storms this
afternoon and evening as the aformentioned front sweeps through.

The front quad of a 50 kt jet max at 500 mb is now approaching with
SBCAPE values in the 5500 to 6500 J/kg range. The best effective
bulk shear is setting up along our eastern counties with a gradient
of 20-40 kts. Combined with a 30-35K theta-e difference and DCAPE
values around 800-1000 J/kg, the potential for strong damaging wind
gusts of 60-70 mph remains the main hazard of concern. Isolated
large hail near 1 inch is also possible, but the extremely warm
boundary layer may simply mean a lot of melting. While the low-level
shear is not the greatest, there is a non-zero chance of a isolated
tornado, especially over southwest Indiana. Torrential downpours
will also be capable of causing runoff on roadways as there is
ample moisture in the column with sfc mixing ratios around 20-22
g/kg and 2.2-2.3" peak PWATs.

Sfc high pressure currently over Saskatchewan will provide a break
from the active weather pattern Wednesday through Thursday before
rain chances begin to return on Friday as a shortwave ejects over
the central Plains. The eastern extent of a ridge of high pressure
begins to build in over the weekend, with high temperatures climbing
back into the 90s by Sunday along with an increase in humidity. ML
guidance is hinting at the potential for additional severe weather
between Sunday and next Tuesday, as multiple disturbances ride along
the ridge. Rain chances will be intermittent during this period.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 529 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

A cold front is now sweeping across the region and will give way
to mostly clear skies tonight. Brief MVFR cigs are possible
across the northern terminals in the morning with initial cu
before lifting to SCT-BKN VFR cigs in the afternoon. Winds turn
light and northerly tonight, increasing to 6-11 kts on
Wednesday. Isolated gusts around 17-18 kts are possible.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Extreme Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for ILZ075-
     080>094.
     Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ILZ076>078.
MO...Extreme Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for MOZ076-
     086-087-100-107>112-114.
IN...Extreme Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for
     INZ085>088.
     Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT /8 PM EDT/ this evening for
     INZ081-082.
KY...Extreme Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for
     KYZ001>022.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DW
AVIATION...DW