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FXUS63 KPAH 181709
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1209 PM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a 30-60% chance of daily showers and storms this
  weekend. A strong storm or two is possible this evening and
  overnight across southwest Indiana.

- A Heat Advisory is in effect from this afternoon through
  Tuesday evening for southwest portions of the region. Daily
  high temperatures trend more into the lower 90s through early
  next week with heat index values between 100-105 degrees.

- Northerly flow may briefly cause moderate unhealthy air
  quality conditions across the far north on Sunday while the
  latter half of next week may pose a more impactful risk due to
  the ongoing Northwestern Ontario wildfire smoke.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1159 PM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026

Upper level troughing digs into the far Northeast today with a
ridge axis situated across the Rockies. This places the Quad
State in a northwest flow aloft with a shortwave expected to
traverse the region today. Additionally, a front will approach
from the north late tonight. Outside of afternoon
showers/storms, a round of thunderstorms are expected along this
front as it dips south into the Quad State. This activity will
likely be on a weakening trend as it moves in given the late
timing. A marginal risk is still in place for the northeast
portions of the area for mainly a damaging wind threat.

Additional chances for showers/storms are in the forecast Sun
into Mon associated with the front before its lifts back north
within a northwest flow aloft. An area of low pressure will send
another front through the Quad State late Tuesday into
Wednesday with rain chances across the eastern portions of the
Quad State. Can`t rule out a few isolated strong to severe
storms as shear and forcing increases during this time. Surface
high pressure settles in Wednesday and Thursday bringing a
period of drier weather. Highs this weekend and into early next
week in the low 90s combined with dewpoints in the 70s result in
several days of heat index values near or above 100 degrees. A
heat advisory remains in effect from late this morning till
Tuesday. Behind the midweek front, temperatures will cool off a
few degrees with highs in the low to mid 80s. Northerly flow
associated with upper-level troughing over the Ohio Valley may
yield a greater risk for poor air quality conditions due to the
ongoing wildfires in Canada, and will be something to monitor
more in the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1153 AM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

The main aviation impacts with this issuance will be pop up
afternoon showers and storms during peak heating with a
diminishing trend after sunset. Kept a PROB30 group in the TAFs
as confidence remains fairly low in exact timing and placement
of any convection this afternoon. Another round is possible up
toward EVV/OWB toward midnight; however, the latest guidance
diminishes the showers and storms as a boundary sags
southwestward into the area. Winds will remain light through
this issuance. Another round of more widely scattered showers
and storms will be possible Sunday afternoon, just beyond this
TAF issuance.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Tuesday for ILZ075-080>082-
     084>094.
MO...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Tuesday for MOZ076-086-087-100-
     107>112-114.
IN...None.
KY...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Tuesday for KYZ001>017-021-022.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AD
AVIATION...KC