280
FXUS63 KPAH 171800
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
100 PM CDT Sun Aug 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Prolonged duration heat and humidity will linger through
  early week with highs in the mid to upper 90s and heat indices
  exceeding the triple digits through Tuesday. A Heat Advisory
  remains in effect for the Quad State region through Tuesday
  afternoon.

- While isolated thunderstorms are possible, it`s a mostly dry
  period during this prolonged heat wave.

- The passage of a cold front Wednesday will allow temperatures
  to fall back toward more seasonally normal levels as scattered
  daily storm chances return for the latter half of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 100 PM CDT Sun Aug 17 2025

The synoptic pattern will undergo pattern metamorphosis this
week. Mean pressure stays high throughout the column early this
week, resulting in the continued buildup of heat/humidity with
our prolonged duration heat headlines continuing thru the day
Tuesday. While a small chance of storms exists, any relief from
such will be temporary and of little overall impact, as even
after a heavy rain, it`ll just be unbearably warm and
steamy/muggy. Daily highs in the mid to upper 90s combined with
dew points in the lower 70s will produce heat indices into
Advisory levels.

Slowly but surely, the pattern metamophosis materializes over
the back half of the week, as the high pressure ridge
retrogrades and anchors/builds further over the western CONUS,
while long wave troffing deepens and envelops the eastern
CONUS. We get more of that troffing play action influence, with
a relatively drier northerly trajectory fetch underneath
falling heights that will draw temps and dew points back to
about where they should be from a seasonally normal standpoint,
closer to 90F for highs and into the upper 60s for dew points.
Along with this change, scattered daily general risk thunderstorm
chances re-emerge.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 100 PM CDT Sun Aug 17 2025

Daily diurnal cu remains the rule with 3-4.5K FT AGL start bases
rising to 5-7K FT AGL mid to late PM bases. Generally speaking,
FEW-SCT bases are anticipated, but an occasional or temporary
CIG is not out of the question. Isolated thunderstorm chances
are low enough to preclude mention at the standard issuance, but
chances of such are not zero, so will be monitored closely.
Time/height cross sections do show some occasional higher bases
of the mid or high variety may lay out in SCT-BKN fashion, esp
by the planning phase hours of the forecast. The only other
potential restriction comes again in the form of late night or
daybreak fog, which might yield additional restrictions to MVFR
or patches of more dense fog with BCFG/MIFG mention.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Tuesday for ILZ075>078-080>094.
MO...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Tuesday for MOZ076-086-087-100-
     107>112-114.
IN...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT /8 PM EDT/ Tuesday for INZ081-082-
     085>088.
KY...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Tuesday for KYZ001>022.

&&

$$