063
FXUS63 KPAH 072334
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
634 PM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A return to dry weather and seasonally cooler temperatures
  will finish out the work week.

- The coolest night will be Thursday night, when calm conditions
  may see temperatures dip into the upper 30s near Mount Vernon,
  IL, allowing for the season`s first potential appearance of
  patchy frost.

- A weekend warmup ensues, with 80F highs reappearing by the
  start of the new week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025

With the surface frontal boundary completing passage, the heavy
rain threat winds down. Radar estimates were aligned closely
with ground truth to on-ground spotter reports, with the
heaviest axis of a broad swath of generally 3-5" rainfall
amounts occurring along and either side of a line from near
Eddyville, IL to Rockport, IN. Much of this rain was spread out
over an 18+ hours period, resulting in minor prone area, low
land, and street flooding.

Recovery is underway now, but a close examination of time/height
cross sections indicates clouds may redevelop/linger,
potentially a light shower, until the H8 front completes its
several hours lag passage. Afterward, the cooler/drier air
overtakes the column, and a nice clear-out occurs. Tdd`s subside
with the drop, except in isolated locales like MVN, where the
drop is not as steep and suggests some MIFG may be in the
offering pre-daybreak tmrw morning.

The remainder of the work week looks spectacular as surface high
pressure works underneath rising upper heights on its
translation from the Great Lakes toward the Ohio Valley. Its
north to northeast anti-cyclone trajectory flow yields and
reinforces seasonally cooler temperatures generally in the
40s/50s for lows, and upper 60s and lower half 70s for highs.
This might include some diurnally assisted NE gustiness during
the day tmrw, too, that makes it feel a tad chillier even with
sunshine. The coolest night will be Thursday night, when clear
skies and calm winds might even produce some daybreak upper 30s
in our far northern counties, in/around Mt Vernon, IL; this
offers our best chance potential for the first appearance of
patchy frost this season in our CWA, but due to its brevity,
it`s a low chance mention.

Tropical interplay makes for an interesting synoptic modeling in
the extended portion of the forecast, but the ensemble solutions
stay steady-as-she goes for us in suggesting a continued dry
but moderating trend over the weekend into early next week. Some
80F degree highs might even appear by the start of the new
week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 623 PM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025

MVFR cloud deck currently just entering the northwest portions
of the area, is expected to continue moving southeast and
filling in more across the area this evening. Behind this deck
is the sharp clearing line that is expected to start moving
through around midnight and will continue to do so until
morning. This means there should be clearing at MVN overnight
which could lead to some shallow fog development, but winds look
to stay up slightly which might mitigate any deeper fog
development. Tomorrow should boast clear skies with winds out of
the north at 5-15 kts with some occasional gusts to around 20
kts.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...HICKFORD