617
FXUS63 KPAH 261015
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
515 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot and humid conditions will continue through the weekend,
  with isolated to scattered storms providing limited relief
  from the heat.

- Another wave of extreme heat is likely Monday and Tuesday and
  perhaps into Wednesday.

- The arrival of a cold front will finally bring a break in the
  heat wave late next week, along with additional chances for
  showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 231 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025

The main energy associated with a shortwave/MCV is expected to lift
northeast across northern MO into IA/northern IL this morning. That
will be the main focus for showers and storms up that way. Across
the Quad State area, the oppressive ridge will drift just east of
the area. Increased deep-layer moisture and perhaps some weakening
remnant MCV energy may help to increase afternoon thunderstorm
activity this afternoon and again Sunday afternoon. Overall, hi-res
guidance seems fairly limited on coverage of convection this
afternoon, but is a bit more widespread on Sunday afternoon as
a boundary sinks south through the area. The main threats with any of
these storms will be very heavy rainfall potential and a localized
flooding threat. Precipitable water values are still progged to be
around 2-2.5 inches (greatest north), which is again supportive
of very heavy downpours across the area. Gusty winds will also
be possible under any collapsing thunderstorms, but organized
severe weather is not anticipated with less than 10kts of shear.

Any storms or cloud cover will help to cool temperatures down in
localized areas anyway both today and Sunday. It will also help that
the upper ridge will drift east of the area through that time
period. It will still be hot and muggy, just not as bad as the past
few days. The break will be very short-lived as the ridge builds
back stronger for the first half of next week, bringing hotter
temperatures/heat indices than we saw this past week. In fact, many
locations could see heat index values pushing up to or even higher
than 110 degrees for Monday and Tuesday as actual temperatures
approach 100 degrees!!

A cold front is on track to bring the entire area some relief for
Wednesday night into Thursday with more widespread shower and storm
activity. That system will be followed by a much drier surface high
pressure system arrives and temperatures drop down into the 80s for
a change!!! At least there is some relief on the way...

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 513 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025

VFR conditions expected through this TAF issuance with the
exception of any isolated to scattered afternoon thunderstorms.
CU bases are expected to be around 3500ft, diminishing toward
sunset along with overall coverage of any showers and storms.
Winds are expected to remain light.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Heat Advisory until noon CDT Monday for ILZ075>078-080>094.
     Extreme Heat Watch from Monday afternoon through Tuesday
     evening for ILZ075>078-080>094.
MO...Heat Advisory until noon CDT Monday for MOZ076-086-087-100-
     107>112-114.
     Extreme Heat Watch from Monday afternoon through Tuesday
     evening for MOZ076-086-087-100-107>112-114.
IN...Heat Advisory until noon CDT /1 PM EDT/ Monday for INZ081-082-
     085>088.
     Extreme Heat Watch from Monday afternoon through Tuesday
     evening for INZ081-082-085>088.
KY...Heat Advisory until noon CDT Monday for KYZ001>022.
     Extreme Heat Watch from Monday afternoon through Tuesday
     evening for KYZ001>022.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KC
AVIATION...KC