821
FXUS63 KPAH 041929
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
Issued by National Weather Service Louisville KY
229 PM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot, humid and mainly dry through the 4th of July holiday
  weekend.

- Rain and storm chances return Sunday and continue with daily
  chances through next week.

- Slightly cooler temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s
  next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 228 PM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

We will remain under the influence of both sfc and upper ridging
into the start of the weekend. While both features will continue
to shift well east of the area through the weekend, we can
expect mainly dry but very warm temperatures over the weekend
with highs in the low/mid 90a but with dew points in the upper
60s/low 70s heat index values will be in the upper 90s to near
triple digits.

The upper ridge will begin to break down on Sunday as an upper
level shortwave approaches from the northwest along with a sfc
cold front dropping in from the plains and upper Midwest on
Sunday into Monday before stalling and becoming quasi-
stationary over the region next week. The overall pattern
becomes more amplified with ridging across the western CONUS and
a trough across the eastern half. While temperatures may cool
of slightly with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s, we will
remain muggy with dew points in the low/mid 70s. This will
result in daily chances of scattered to numerous showers and
storms, mainly into the afternoon through most of next week.
Gusty winds, torrential rainfall and lightning will be the main
threats from any convection the develops each day.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

The primary flight category through the forecast period will be
VFR. FEW-SCT CU will remain through the afternoon with light
southeast winds of around 5 mph. Skies will clear and winds will
become calm after sunset, this may lead to another morning of
patchy fog but confidence remains low.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...WFO LMK
AVIATION...WFO LMK