144
FXUS63 KPAH 110350
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1050 PM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Summer-like 90s return to the forecast tomorrow and stick
  around through at least early next week.

- A continued dry weather forecast will only exacerbate drought
  conditions through the next 7 days.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1044 PM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025

Updated aviation discussion for 06z TAFs.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025

Broad cyclonic flow over the Great Lakes region continues to
lead to subsidence and and overall dry weather pattern over the
quad-state. All moisture for rain of any significant remains
shunted well to the south over the Gulf. Surface dewpoints have
crept up just a little over the last 24-48 hours with afternoon
mixing only reducing them into the low 60s and we saw a few
sprinkles this morning over Owensboro/Evansville but
abnormally/dry drought conditions look to remain in place by and
large through the next 7 days. The broad cyclonic flow to our
northeast advances southeastward a bit leading to increasing
surface ridging over GA/NC/VA that further cuts off moisture
return from the east. 500mb heights increase slightly and
afternoon maximum temperatures follow suit as we should head
above 90 in most locales tomorrow and stay that way for the next
several days.

By the weekend we get just a whisper of deeper low-level return
flow but it still looks insufficient for appreciable rainfall
and strong mid level subsidence and surface heating will likely
mix out any sensible increase in low level humidity/moisture
that would lead to higher heat index values or precip chances.
GFS/ECMWF deterministic and ensemble members point towards the
overall 500mb troughing shifting more to the west by day 7-10
that could result in a little different pattern, but for the
most part it looks like a safe bet to count on it being more dry
than not for the foreseeable future.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1044 PM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025

Patchy ground fog is possible tonight, particularly across west
KY and into southwest IN where crossover temperatures are
higher. Any lingering SCT-BKN mid cloud should largely clear out
overnight. Additional cu development with bases around 7-10kft
are expected tomorrow afternoon. Winds will be mainly calm
overnight and light/variable under 5 kts tomorrow.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SP
DISCUSSION...JGG
AVIATION...SP