565
FXUS63 KPAH 141020
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
520 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dangerous heat and humidity will linger across the area
  through the upcoming weekend. Heat index values will range
  from 105-115 degrees each afternoon. An Extreme Heat Warning
  continues through the weekend.

- A 20-40% chance of showers and thunderstorms is forecast for
  Sunday night and Monday.

- Slightly cooler temperatures and a bit lower humidity values
  are in the forecast for the first half of next week.
  Temperatures will still reach the lower to middle 90s each day
  with the exception of the Evansville Tri State where upper
  80s are forecast for Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1251 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

A line/cluster of convection will sag south early this morning
toward the Evansville Tri State; however, the storms are expected to
weaken before or as they move into the CWA. This will be a result of
them running into the very warm aloft, associated with the massive
ridge in place. It isn`t totally out of the question that a few
showers/storms briefly push in before diminishing.

The aforementioned ridge, responsible for all the heat across
the Quad State, will continue to expand and intensify across the
area into the weekend, which will allow temperatures to climb
along with the humidity. The Extreme Heat Warning will remain in
place and unchanged with heat index values expected to be in
the 105-115 degree range through the weekend! This will be a
dangerous and prolonged period of extreme heat.

A frontal boundary and several pieces of upper-level energy are
forecast to drift through the area for Monday, which may briefly
bring slightly cooler temperatures (upper 80s to low 90s) for
Tuesday into Wednesday of next week. Beyond that, there are some
signals that temperatures will trend a bit cooler with additional
rainfall chances toward the end of next week, even though
temperatures may briefly rebound Wednesday into Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 519 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

Generally expecting good flying conditions with this TAF
issuance. There is a small possibility that a stray shower
could impact the EVV/OWB/MVN TAF sites this morning, but
confidence is low enough to keep out of the forecast. Otherwise,
light winds (less than 10kts) and VFR conditions are expected.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Sunday for ILZ075>078-
     080>094.
MO...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Sunday for MOZ076-086-087-
     100-107>112-114.
IN...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT /9 PM EDT/ Sunday for
     INZ081-082-085>088.
KY...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Sunday for KYZ001>022.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KC
AVIATION...KC