263
FXUS63 KPAH 242307
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
607 PM CDT Sat May 24 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Storm total rainfall through Tuesday is expected to be in the
  1 to 2 inch range near the Bootheel and Ozark Counties in MO
  and for most of western Kentucky. Southern IL and southwest IN
  will generally see totals less than an inch.

- The potential for organized strong to severe storms this
  weekend will likely remain to our south and west; although, a
  couple strong storms could brush into SEMO closer to the AR
  border. Another round of strong storms may lift farther north
  into SEMO and west KY on Tuesday.

- Unseasonably cool temperatures this weekend will warm closer
  to seasonal averages by the middle/end of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 215 PM CDT Sat May 24 2025

A frontal boundary will remain nearly stationary to the south of the
area through Monday night before finally drifting off to the east of
the area by Tuesday afternoon/evening. This, along with several
shortwaves passing through the area, will keep intermittent chances
for showers and thunderstorms in the forecast through Tuesday night.
The next wave of energy is set to arrive later tonight into Sunday
morning, which will be the next best chance of rain, followed by
another Sunday night into Monday. The main trough is expected to
sweep through the area late Monday night into Tuesday. Each one of
the waves and the final trough will bring greater chances of showers
and storms as they pass through the area.

The greatest focus for heavier rainfall will be closer to the
aforementioned frontal boundary, near the AR border in SEMO and the
TN border in western KY. Those locations have the best chance of
seeing 1 to 2 inches of rainfall through Tuesday night, with much
lighter totals farther north. Some localized flooding will be
possible, but not expecting widespread issues. As far as severe
weather goes, a few strong storms are possible near the AR border in
SEMO and a lesser chance near the TN border in west KY. Any of these
storms look like they would be elevated and may produce some hail
tonight and again Sunday, but again, this seems to be a fairly low
chance. Tuesday might be a bit more of a concerns as SBCAPE is
forecast increase to around 1500J/kg and westerly shear increases to
around 25-30kts as the trough approaches from the west. Dew point
temperatures also increase into the mid 60s with temps warming into
the mid to upper 70s. SEMO into west KY would have the greatest
chance of seeing damaging winds and hail Tuesday into Tuesday
evening. There is still some uncertainty with the overall pattern,
which could keep the severe weather risk south and/or east of the
Quad State.  It is worth keeping any eye on for now!

The rest of the week will continue to be unsettled with near to
slightly below normal as mid-level troughing lingers across the east
half of the CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 606 PM CDT Sat May 24 2025

VFR conditions are anticipated overnight. Another round of light
rain and showers moves in in the morning but prevailing cigs
generally look to stay VFR.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KC
AVIATION...JGG