982
FXUS63 KPAH 062210
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
510 PM CDT Tue May 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

-  Isolated to scattered showers can be expected in southeast
   Missouri late tonight, and across the entire region
   Wednesday through Thursday.

 - A few afternoon/evening thunderstorms are possible Wednesday
   and Thursday.

 - Small chances of showers will linger across mainly southeast
   Missouri and west Kentucky Thursday night and Friday morning,
   then a few showers are possible in mainly west Kentucky,
   extreme southern Illinois and extreme southeast Missouri this
   weekend.

 - Much better chances of showers return for Monday and Tuesday,
   especially during the daytime hours, with isolated
   thunderstorms possible both afternoons.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 506 PM CDT Tue May 6 2025

Updated Aviation discussion for 00Z TAF Issuance.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 220 PM CDT Tue May 6 2025

An upper level system approaching from the southwest will result in
both increasing clouds and shower chances across the PAH forecast
area tonight into Wednesday. These chances will continue
Wednesday night and Thursday as the system moves over our
region. There is potential for afternoon/early evening
thunderstorms both days during peak heating. Showers will be
scattered at best, and overall rainfall amounts are a tenth of
an inch or less.

Chances of light showers will linger across mainly the southern
half of the region Thursday night into Friday morning with the
first system to our east and another upper level system churning
over the central Gulf Coast. Friday afternoon and night should
be dry. The model blend brings chances of showers back into our
area Saturday and even more so on Sunday, especially during the
daylight hours. Some models show weak surface high pressure
over our area keeping any precipitation to our south, but the
model blend pushes enough moisture northward to give mainly our
southern areas small chances. Overall confidence is not great
with the weekend chances, but any precipitation that does make
it here will be light and very scattered.

By early next week, the system to our south will be pushing
northward, and this results in better chances spreading across
our entire region, especially during the heat of the day. The
center of the upper low will move close enough to give us small
chances for some afternoon/early evening thunderstorms both
Monday and Tuesday.

Persistent east to northeast flow will keep daytime high
temperatures a little below normal through Saturday, with
overnight lows closer to season normals. A warming trend will
begin on Sunday, with highs by Tuesday a little above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 506 PM CDT Tue May 6 2025

Satellite shows the lead edge of high clouds advancing toward
the terminals from the west. The clouds spill out from an upper
level low slowly approaching from the southern Plains.
Time/height cross sections reveal the bulk moisture/pcpn chances
staying primiarily to our south and west this package, however,
small chances do come into KCGI-KPAH tmrw as bases lower to
potential restricted cats. Peak heating offers enough instability
for low pop thunder mention, including any associated vsby
restrictions.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$