116
FXUS64 KOUN 111208
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
708 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 215 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025

- Elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions each afternoon.

- Slight risk for severe storms in southeast Oklahoma on Wednesday
  afternoon and evening.

- High winds along with critical to extreme fire weather
  conditions on Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 215 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025

Another day of elevated to near critical fire weather. There are two
main areas highlighted for elevated RFTIs today, both primarily RH
driven. The first is along an axis from Cheyenne to Fairview to
Medford. This area is within the drier air of northwest Oklahoma,
but ahead of the slightly cooler temperatures expected in far
northwest Oklahoma (keeping RHs a tad higher there; winds will also
be slightly lighter in far northwest OK as well). Southwest winds of
10 to 15 mph are expected along this axis. This area will also be
coincident with higher ERCs (50-60th percentile) due to the lack of
recent rainfall.

The second area will be western north Texas and southwest Oklahoma
as breezy southwest winds bring in warm and dry air to this region.
ERCs are are bit more tempered in this region (25-50th percentile).

Otherwise, it looks like a beautiful sunny day with highs in the 70s
and 80s. A weak boundary will bring light northwest winds and
slightly cooler temperatures (we`re only talking 3-4 degrees cooler)
to far northwest Oklahoma, while the rest of the region gets the
more breezy southwest winds. Overnight lows will be in the 40s and
50s (warmer over southeast Oklahoma due to moisture influx).

Day

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday through Thursday night)
Issued at 215 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025

Our next storm system rolls through Wednesday as an upper low tracks
east through the Texas panhandle and Oklahoma. For the most part,
this system looks to leave us dry due to a lack of moisture, but we
do have a low chance for storms in southeast Oklahoma, east of the
dryline (including a slight risk for severe storms). CAMs suggest
limited storm coverage (if any) confined to a fairly short time
window, but any storm that does develop will likely become severe.

Otherwise, the main effect of this upper level system will be to
bring gusty winds on Wednesday as well as some transient cloud
cover. Highs will continue in the 70s and 80s.

Thursday will be sunny and warm with gusty winds across northwest
Oklahoma. These breezy winds will actually continue and spread over
the rest of the forecast area overnight as the next storm system
approaches (see long term).

Day

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 215 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025

Friday`s headlines will be critical to extreme fire weather and
strong (possibly severe) winds.

A deep upper low is forecast to move through the four corners region
Friday morning, traversing through Kansas during the day. The
associated surface low is showing an impressive 975mb center
somewhere over western Kansas. This will create a very tight
pressure gradient leading to very strong winds on Friday (ensemble
means are showing sustained winds of 35 to 45 mph with gusts
reaching up to 60 mph). NBM probabilities remain consistent with
previous forecasts (see previous AFD) with the strongest winds
indicated over southwest Oklahoma and western north Texas.

The current forecast calls for RH values in the low to mid teens,
though with westerly downslope flow, we`ll keep be keeping an eye
out for any signal for locally lower RHs, especially as we move into
CAM range.

We`ll also be watching the progression of ERCS closely. The
beneficial rainfall of last weekend brought ERCs back down into the
20-50th percentile range over southwest Oklahoma and western north
Texas, but conditions will be ideal for accelerated drying over the
next several days. Additionally, northern Oklahoma (due to lack of
rainfall) is already seeing ERCs in the 50-80th percentile range.
This will only worsen as we approach Friday.

All this together is expected to yield critical (widespread) to
extreme (mainly western north Texas) RFTIs on Friday.

Cooler temperatures are expected over the weekend (highs in the 60s)
with northerly winds. Areas of elevated fire weather will again be
possible both Saturday and Sunday.

Day

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 707 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025

No low ceilings of visibility restrictions are expected through
this forecast period. Winds will increase from the southwest
this morning before calming down in most areas around sunset.
Areas of non-convective low-level wind shear will likely develop
again overnight tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  77  47  76  47 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK         78  42  77  43 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  82  49  81  47 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           75  39  75  40 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     79  43  75  44 /   0   0   0   0
Durant OK         77  53  75  49 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...14
SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...26