688
FXUS64 KOUN 172325
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
625 PM CDT Sun Aug 17 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 111 PM CDT Sun Aug 17 2025

 - High heat indices persist into early next week.

 - Widely scattered showers/storms this afternoon with additional
   chances northwest tonight.

 - Higher rain chances mid week.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 111 PM CDT Sun Aug 17 2025

The showers and thunderstorms persist across north central Texas
and south central Oklahoma this afternoon and are expected to
continue this afternoon and perhaps into early this evening.
Meanwhile an area of cumulus has been developing west of Childress
that may be the beginning of new development that some models show
developing this afternoon and spreading into western Oklahoma.
Right now it looks like the southern storms will primarily be
diurnal while a weak shortwave may be enough to support western
convection into the evening. Coverage may not be widespread and
POPs for any particular area is still relatively low.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 111 PM CDT Sun Aug 17 2025

Stop me if you`ve heard this one before, but the heat continues.
Advisory-level heat index values are again expected...primarily
in the southeast with the highest humidity, the post-harvest wheat
belt of north central Oklahoma, and the urban heat island of
Oklahoma City. So another heat advisory has been issued for
tomorrow afternoon, and again for the same locations where we have
had advisories the last couple of days. And again, diurnal
thunderstorms will be possible. Tuesday looks similar as well.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 1228 AM CDT Sun Aug 17 2025

A week cold front will move through the area Wednesday, providing
a cool down through the end of the week and into the weekend.
Rain chances will increase Wednesday along this boundary as it
moves through. Rain chances will shift southward through the day,
and will be possible again Thursday across the southern third of
the area. Upper 80s to low 90s are expected through the end of
week, with lows in the upper 60s to low 70s by the end of the
week.

Bunker

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 625 PM CDT Sun Aug 17 2025

Prevailing VFR conditions remain forecast at all terminals through
the period. Scattered convection is likely to continue through
03-06 UTC across western Oklahoma, with low probability impact
(and associated category reduction) at KCSM/KWWR during this time.

Safe travels!

Ungar

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  75  97  75  96 /  10  20  10  10
Hobart OK         74  99  73  97 /  20  20  10  10
Wichita Falls TX  75  97  75  98 /  10  20  10  10
Gage OK           71  97  70  96 /  20  20  20  20
Ponca City OK     74  98  74  97 /  10  20  10  20
Durant OK         75  99  77  99 /  10  20   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ006>008-011>013-
     018>020-025-026-030>032-042-043-047-048-051-052.

     Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Monday for OKZ006>008-
     011>013-018>020-025-026-030>032-042-043-047-048-051-052.

TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...09