645
FXUS64 KOUN 131029
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
529 AM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 524 AM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

- Heat wave continues with dangerous heat each afternoon.

- Isolated thunderstorms, some with damaging wind gusts, are
  possible in northwest and far western Oklahoma this afternoon
  and evening.

- Elevated fire weather continues, and a Red Flag Warning is in
  effect for northwest/far western Oklahoma for potential dry
  lightning strikes.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Thursday)
Issued at 131 AM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

Three-pronged day of weather impacts today with heat, fire weather,
and storms all vying for our attention. Perhaps the greatest concern
is any overlap between the three hazards (eg: lightning-induced
fires, downburst potential in extreme heat, etc).

It might end up being the hottest day of the summer (at least by air
temperature) for quite a few folks today. This is largely because of
a weak burst of southwesterly 500 mb flow which will originate off
of the mountains in New Mexico, which will induce a 1000 mb low
across the northern panhandles. This is a classic environment for
downslope torching for us. With 850 mb temps sitting at 30C already,
we should easily reduce surface temperatures to 105+ just about
everywhere west of I-35 that doesn`t get interfered with by cloud
cover. The winter wheat belt and Cimarron valley of northern
Oklahoma, in particular, will see high temperatures make a run at
110 and possibly as high as 112. It won`t be a particularly dry
heat, either, with a wave of Gulf moisture sloshing north-northeast
through the area in the morning. All told, heat risk will be very
high to extreme across much of the area today.

That southwesterly flow and slug of modified moisture will also
encourage storms to develop across the high plains in the afternoon
hours. Thanks to the effect of the lingering subtropical ridge, a
large majority of our area will remain dry. CAM guidance shows a
weak but clear signal for convective development by mid-afternoon in
an axis from the eastern TX panhandle northeastward into northwest
Oklahoma. Moderate instability (MLCAPE in excess of 1,000 J/kg),
weak deep-layer shear, and extremely mixed profiles with dewpoint
depressions in excess of 40F will all encourage high-based, short-
lived cores with significant downdraft potential (60-80 mph wind
gusts possible). From Harmon to Roger Mills Counties, the explicit
CAM signal is weaker, so confidence in storm development is lower.
Still, the overall pattern (and the fact that storms fired just west
of those counties this past evening in a worse environment) would
suggest that convection can`t be ruled out.

Elevated fire weather is expected across a rather broad swath of the
western half of Oklahoma. RHs will drop to around 20 percent in a
broad part of the area and peak wind gusts this afternoon should be
comfortably at or above 30 mph. However, the biggest fire weather
concern will be in the area that sees convection this afternoon.
Despite rather robust PWATS in the 1.3-1.5 inch range, significant
evaporation of downdrafts is likely to occur with those 40-50
dewpoint depressions. Therefore, dry lightning strikes will be a
concern in western/northwest Oklahoma. Any fires that are ongoing at
the time of a thunderstorm will also have to contend with erratic
and strong outflow winds. The greatest overlap between storm
potential and fire weather conditions has been highlighted by a Red
Flag Warning today.

Meister

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday night through Saturday night)
Issued at 131 AM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

Tomorrow looks a little bit like today, but with the impact
potential fortunately muted somewhat. Model guidance suggests that
the belt of southwest flow across the high plains will weaken in
response to a resurgence of the southeast ridge, and the surface low
will be accordingly weaker. With a weaker blowtorch, air
temperatures will drop back into the hot but not quite record-
setting pace they`ve been so far during this latest heat wave.

Storm chances should continue Friday afternoon as well, though the
more robust convection may move a little north and west into the
northeastern panhandles instead of far northwest Oklahoma. Once
again, the potential for strong to severe outflow winds and erratic
fire behavior can`t be ignored. Elevated fire weather is expected
across a good chunk of western and southwest Oklahoma, as well, and
fuels will start to become much more responsive toward the I-35
corridor.

I guess a forecast of 100-104 for much of the area on Saturday
constitutes a "cooldown" at this point, though folks outside
probably won`t be thinking of the day as all that cool. The pressure
gradient will abate somewhat as the center of the ridge inches
closer and a shortwave trough to the north departs. This will keep
us a little less breezy, a little less hot, and keep storm chances
away from northwest Oklahoma for an evening.

Meister

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 131 AM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

We welcome the ridge back overhead during the day on Sunday as a
broad jet streak moves across the northern part of the country. This
will be accompanied by a weak frontal boundary attempting to move
into the northern part of the CWA. Those two competing factors will
actually produce a weak gradient in high temperatures by Monday
afternoon with hotter temperatures clustered around the Red River
and highs in northern Oklahoma potentially remaining in the 90s.
That frontal boundary is also the best chance anyone in our area has
to receive significant drought-busting rainfall. Even those odds are
not all that good, and mostly limited to far northern Oklahoma.

Guidance is starting to indicate that a trough could dig southward
to near or into our CWA by the middle of next week. It`s unclear
whether this scenario comes to pass or not, but bears watching in
the coming days. If we did get a trough passage, there would likely
be impactful weather of some sort for mid-to-late next week -
perhaps more extreme heat, or fire weather, or maybe even
rain/storms.

Meister

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 524 AM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

VFR ceilings expected this TAF period with some mid and high
clouds later this afternoon/tonight. Breezy S to SW winds are
expected into Friday except for any variable winds or brief wind
shifts due to winds from thunderstorms/outflow boundaries. There
are low chances (20-30%) for some thunderstorms late this
afternoon and evening. These storms could produce damaging wind
gusts. Blowing dust that may reduce visibility could also be
possible due to the winds but too much uncertainty to put in any
TAFs.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 103  79 102  78 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK        106  80 105  77 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX 106  78 105  77 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK          107  77 104  76 /  20  20  10  10
Ponca City OK    105  80 105  78 /   0   0   0   0
Durant OK        103  77 102  77 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Friday for OKZ004-009-010-014>017-
     021>048-050>052.

     Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM CDT this
     evening for OKZ004-005-009-010-014-021-033.

     Heat Advisory until noon CDT today for OKZ005>008-011>013-
     018>020.

     Heat Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 8 PM CDT Friday for
     OKZ005>008-011>013-018>020.

     Extreme Heat Warning from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for OKZ005>008-011>013-018>020.

TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Friday for TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...25