771
FXUS64 KOUN 141847
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
147 PM CDT Wed May 14 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 140 PM CDT Wed May 14 2025

 - Prepare for a risk of severe weather this weekend (Saturday
through Monday).

 - Above normal temperatures will continue well into next week
   (mainly upper quartile of climatology).

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 140 PM CDT Wed May 14 2025

Temperatures remain on track to reach records / near records with
highs expected in the mid to upper 90s (and some triple digits in
western north Texas). Breezy winds (especially across western
Oklahoma and western north Texas) will continue into early evening,
then diminish with sunset.

A cold front will enter Oklahoma late tonight, yielding a strong
gradient for low temperatures by early morning (mid 50s in northwest
Oklahoma to lower 70s in southeast Oklahoma).

Day

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday through Friday night)
Issued at 140 PM CDT Wed May 14 2025

Thursday will be cooler, though still warm (highs in the 80s). A few
high based showers will be possible (10% chance) along / behind the
front (mainly southeast portions of the forecast area), with chances
peaking around noon. There is a marginal risk for strong to severe
storms during the afternoon just southeast of our forecast area,
ahead of the front, though exactly where the front stalls is
somewhat uncertain.

Friday repeats a lot of this with another frontal boundary moving
through the area. Temperatures will be slightly warmer than Thursday
(upper 80s / lower 90s). Rain / storm chances look much the same.

Day

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 140 PM CDT Wed May 14 2025

Confidence is increasing with potentially several days of strong to
severe storms over the weekend into next week. Moisture return
across much of the area is expected to take place starting Saturday
with a dryline set up to the west near the 100th Meridian. Upper 60s
to low 70s dewpoints to the east of the dryline will continue to
overspread the area during this timeframe. A favorable upper-level
pattern will exist for severe weather during the long term,
especially later in the weekend into early next week. Narrowing in
on exact locations and timing for higher impact severe weather is
still in question at this time, as we are still several days out.
Needless to say, a pattern shift that supports increased chances of
thunderstorms will exist this weekend into early next week.
Additional details for severe weather will become more clear as we
get closer to the weekend.

Above average temperatures are expected to continue during the long
term.

Bunker

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1148 AM CDT Wed May 14 2025

VFR skies the next 24 hours. A westerly wind shift has moved
mostly through the area with 20+ knot gusts possible this
afternoon. Winds will shift to southerly around 10 knots tonight,
before a cold front shifts them to northwesterly tomorrow morning.

Meister

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  65  83  62  88 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK         62  83  57  89 /  10   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  66  85  64  90 /   0  10   0   0
Gage OK           53  83  53  86 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     60  83  57  87 /   0   0   0   0
Durant OK         73  86  68  90 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...14
SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...04