592
FXUS64 KOUN 131747
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1247 PM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1243 PM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025

 - Isolated heavy rain possible across southeast Oklahoma this
   afternoon.

 - Dangerous heat indices Thursday into the weekend

 - Mainly dry with a gradual warming trend into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025

Weak upper trough will continue to be located from the Mid-
Mississippi Valley southwest into southeast Oklahoma this afternoon.
A few isolated to widely scattered showers/storms will be possible
in this area through sunset, although most locations will remain
dry. With the slow motion and high precipitable water, isolated
heavy rainfall will be possible.

Otherwise, very warm afternoon and evening with mild conditions
overnight as temperatures slowly cool into the upper 60s and low/mid
70s. Upper trough will continue to transition further south and east
away from the area as upper ridge across the west begins to shift
east out into the Plains. This will be the dominate feature for us
through the weekend.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday through Friday night)
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025

Upper ridge continues to build eastward into the Plains Thursday
with associated height rises. This along with veered low level flow,
especially earlier in the day, will bring warmer boundary layer
airmass across Oklahoma and Texas. This will result in highs
few/several degrees warmer than Wednesday. Some locations across
northwest and southwest Oklahoma and western north Texas may once
again top the century mark. These warmer temperatures will combine
with dewpoints in the upper 60s and low/mid 70s across the eastern
two-thirds of Oklahoma to push afternoon heat indices over 100
degrees and parts of southeast Oklahoma may exceed 105. A Heat
Advisory may be needed for this area Thursday afternoon.

Friday appears to be the warmest day, with most of the area climbing
into the mid/upper 90s and low 100s, as upper ridge becomes centered
over the area. Heat Advisory will again likely be a larger
part of the area Friday afternoon.

With the abundant moisture in place, can not rule out an isolated
shower/storm in far southeast Oklahoma either Thursday or Friday
afternoon. If any precip does develop it would be diurnal in nature
and would dissipate quickly around sunset.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 1231 AM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025

During the upcoming weekend, a deep southerly flow around the
upper ridge to our east may result in isolated showers and storms
across far western and southern Oklahoma/northern Texas.
Temperatures will remain at or near average with afternoon heat
indices near/above 105 across the eastern half of Oklahoma. Rain
and storm chances will remain on the low side, near or less than
20 percent, Monday and Tuesday, with near average temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1122 AM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025

All of our terminals should remain under VFR category through the
forecast period with only some scattered CU during the first six
hours. Only terminal KDUA in southeast Oklahoma could see an
elevated thunderstorm through 22Z with a 30% probability. Surface
winds very light but may start increasing more southerly late in
the forecast toward 16Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  71  95  75  97 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK         70  98  74 100 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  72  98  75  99 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           69  98  72  99 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     69  95  73  98 /   0   0   0   0
Durant OK         73  95  75  97 /   0  10   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...68