834
FXUS64 KOUN 171807
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
107 PM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 101 PM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026

- Rain/storm chances today and returning tonight across our
  southwest and very low chances Saturday afternoon.

- Hot temperatures this weekend becoming more seasonably normal by
  Sunday

- Dry next week and hotter with more excessive heating and triple
  digit heat indices returning.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 101 PM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026

Our forecast area will remain east of a persisting closed upper low
extending from western Texas up through the panhandles while high
surface pressure over the gulf will maintain strong southerly
moisture transport through the lower-levels fueling this system.
Will maintain POPs for rain showers while low-end moderate
instability will be sufficient for embedded isolated convection as
well. Northwest Oklahoma will likely stay dry with periods of
rain/isolated storm activity across our remaining areas before
diminishing through the evening hours. No severe risks but will need
to monitor for excessive rainfall with any convective activity due
to heavier rainfall rates which would be very localized.  Not
expecting to see much sun this afternoon with all the cloud cover
from this system.  It will be another hot muggy afternoon yet still
climatically below normal temperatures for mid-July.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Sunday night)
Issued at 101 PM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026

We may see storm activity return early Saturday morning across
portions of both western north Texas into southwestern Oklahoma and
winding down by daylight in central Oklahoma.  Much of this early
Saturday morning activity may be fueled and initiated by a low-level
jet increasing out of the southwest after midnight with its maxima
generally aligned over and along the H.E. Bailey Turnpike.  Although
some areas will see sun late Saturday morning but expecting cloud
cover to increase with up to dense afternoon CU by late morning
mixing.  Although breezy south winds but not expecting afternoon
winds to be very gusty due to the diminishing low-level jet.  There
remains model inconsistencies with POPs for Saturday afternoon due
to a persistent "wet" ECMWF solution expanding the eastward extend
of the upper low across the middle of our forecast area while
restricted to northwest Oklahoma with the NAM solution.  As a result
will go "wetter" than NBM with 15% POPs with mostly light scattered
rain across our much of our area which is more in consensus with the
ECMWF as well as the DESI LREF Grand Ensembles. Can`t also rule out
a weak isolated thunderstorm as well based on the instability.
Although this will depend how broken the afternoon CU will be and
any potential rain (very low prob), but thinking the NBM is a bit
slow heating Saturday so went slightly warmer and closer to MAV
using CONSAll guidance for Saturdays MaxT.

By Sunday the upper low opens up diminishing over western Texas
while a strong upper ridge over much of the western U.S. starts
building in.  Cannot rule out some afternoon CU but will see more
daytime sun with this building ridge and a heating trend with a
return of more seasonably normal (mid to upper 90s highs)
temperatures.  NBM still slightly cool biased so went hotter with
but not too aggressively with the MaxT using the CONSMOS but nudged
it by 50%.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 131 AM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026

By late Monday, upper ridge continues to build south through the
Plains with veered low level flow expanding the low level thermal
ridge across much of the central and southern Plains. So, by Monday
afternoon temperatures will rise into the upper 90s and low 100s. By
this time we expect to see some mixing out of the low level
moisture, but still some locations across north central and
southeast Oklahoma may approach heat advisory criteria.

Tuesday, the center of the upper ridge settles directly overhead
with lighter winds as a cold front approaches the northern border by
late in the day. Ahead of the front low level thermal ridge (pre-
frontal torch) is located across Oklahoma. This will result in
likely one of the hottest day of the year so far, with highs ranging
from near 100 to 105 Tuesday afternoon. There will also be
sufficient moisture still in place for afternoon heat indices to be
in the 100-110 degrees range.

The weak front will make its way into at least northern Oklahoma
Tuesday night into Wednesday, which should allow slightly cooler
temperatures across the north. However, central and southern
Oklahoma into north Texas will once again climb above the century
mark Wednesday afternoon.

As go into the latter part of the week, models diverge with regards
to the placement of the upper high, which could be impactful. While
the European keeps the ridge firmly established across the area with
hot and dry conditions continuing. The GFS shifts the high further
west, putting the area on the edge of northwest flow and brings in
slightly cooler temperatures and rain chances back into play.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026

Clumps of showers are developing across a wide swath of the area
early this afternoon. Expect a few thunderstorms to develop with
lightning and very heavy downpours, which will reduce visibility.
Otherwise, expect cloud conditions to mostly become scattered
this afternoon. Winds will be a little bit closer to southwesterly
tomorrow morning (180-200 degrees), so stratus development is a
little less likely. Would still expect stratocumulus by late
morning, though.

Meister

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  88  72  92  73 /  40  20  10   0
Hobart OK         89  70  93  71 /  40  10   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  90  71  93  72 /  70  10  10   0
Gage OK           91  69  95  71 /  10   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     89  73  93  75 /  20  10  10  20
Durant OK         92  75  94  76 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...68
SHORT TERM...68
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...04