636
FXUS64 KOUN 231100
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
600 AM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 152 AM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025

 - Low probability of strong to marginally severe storms over
   northern Oklahoma on Saturday afternoon
 - Widespread, heavy rainfall increasingly likely early next week
   with another round of potentially heavy rainfall late in the
   week
 - Cooler weather coming

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Saturday)
Issued at 152 AM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025

The convection over northern Kansas is progged by models to
dissipate before reaching Oklahoma, but this is something we will
be watching this morning. But a strong gust front associated with
the storms has moved through Hays and Russell Kansas with
northerly gusts of 35 to 40 mph, so this boundary will likely
continue to move south. This boundary and/or the synoptic cold
front over northern Kansas will push into northern Oklahoma today
although the temperatures will not be significantly cooler.

The NAM is the most aggressive with developing instability this
afternoon with MLCAPE above 2000 J/kg in northern Oklahoma. While
this may be aggressive, many models develop at least an area of
1000 J/kg or so and many erode CIN this afternoon. There may not
be a clear focus for thunderstorm development with
north/northeasterly winds ahead of the front limiting convergence
along the front, and no significant wave aloft (unless the storms
in northern Kansas this morning spawn an MCV). But with the
eroding inhibition, there is at least some model signal of the
potential shower/thunderstorm development today. Instability may
be sufficient for isolated strong storms, and we can`t rule out a
marginally severe storm or two. Shear is not very strong, but 500
mb flow is increasing to 20-25 knots as the mid- level ridge
shifts west, so mid-level flow and shear are a little bit stronger
than what we saw earlier this week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday night through Monday night)
Issued at 152 AM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025

With upslope flow across the central High Plains, thunderstorms
developing Saturday afternoon in eastern Colorado may make a run
toward northwestern Oklahoma overnight, although the higher rain
chances will remain to the north in Kansas.

As mentioned earlier, Saturday`s front does not bring
significantly cooler air, so Sunday will again have similar warm
high temperatures as Friday and Saturday. But a stronger wave
moving southeast from the Canadian Prairie provinces into the
northern Plains and Great Lakes region will help lower heights
across the Plains as well as help coax a stronger front down the
Plains and into the area Sunday night. Easterly upslope flow
across the central High Plains will again develop convection over
eastern Colorado with a higher chance of storms moving toward
northern Oklahoma on Sunday night into early Monday. With this
cold front and the potential of lingering convection and clouds on
Monday, we will start seeing the first signs of the much
anticipated cooler temperatures on Monday, at least across
northern and likely central Oklahoma. Southern Oklahoma and north
Texas may have to wait one more day for the cooler temperatures to
arrive. Higher rain chances will continue into Monday night with
both ongoing convection and any redevelopment along convective
boundaries, but also with another round of storms moving off the
central High Plains.

Locally heavy rainfall will be possible with these areas of
storms Sunday night and Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 152 AM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025

Mid-week the pattern is a little more uncertain with the current
models suggesting the mid-level ridge may try to build back
temporarily over the southern and central High Plains. But upslope
surface flow remains over the central High Plains especially as a
lee cyclone is predicted to develop over southeast Colorado on
Wednesday, so there is still some potential for showers and
storms. But then, at least for now, there is a somewhat persist
signal of a shortwave moving toward the central Plains flattening
the mid-level ridge and increasing storm chances again Wednesday
night/Thursday with the potential of yet another wave moving
toward the Plains Thursday night/Friday. Higher storm chances are
expected with these waves, and again locally heavy rainfall will
be possible in any areas that receive multiple rounds of storms.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 600 AM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025

Prevailing VFR conditions are expected at all terminals through
the period. A more sustained, and potentially occasionally breezy,
northerly wind regime is expected to become established through
the day today. There is an increasing signal/expectation for
scattered showers and thunderstorms across northern and central
Oklahoma, possibly by as early as ~15-17 UTC at KPNC and
shifting southward with time. Brief vis reduction would be
possible if a thunderstorm impacts a terminal.

Safe travels!

Ungar

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  93  69  89  66 /  20  10   0  20
Hobart OK         97  69  92  67 /  10  10  10  20
Wichita Falls TX  94  71  91  70 /   0  10   0  10
Gage OK           91  64  85  61 /  10  20  20  50
Ponca City OK     90  64  87  62 /  30  10   0  30
Durant OK         95  72  94  71 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...09