392
FXUS64 KOUN 051828
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
Issued by National Weather Service Tulsa OK
128 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 128 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

- Episodic rounds of showers and thunderstorms beginning this
  evening and continuing through the weekend. Severe weather will
  be possible.

- Warming trend with normal temperatures by Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 128 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

Severe weather concern will increase this evening and continue
into early Friday morning.

An initial semi-contiguous area of thunderstorms has translated
into western Oklahoma from the Texas Panhandle early this
afternoon, plausibly tied to an area of moist mid-level
ascent. Some risk for large hail and perhaps damaging wind gusts,
as destabilization continues downstream, can be intermittently
expected with strongest cores this afternoon into early evening.
Localized flooding may also be a concern where repeated rounds of
thunderstorms occur.

Otherwise, the most confident scenario remains for robust
convection to organize across far southwestern Kansas/Oklahoma
Panhandle and spread southeastward into northern and north-
central Oklahoma late this evening into early Friday morning. An
increasingly unstable airmass, potentially aided by increasing
moisture/theta-e flux, is expected across the area during this
time. Damaging wind gusts, with a few significant (>80 mph) wind
gusts, large hail and perhaps a tornado or two will be the main
hazards with severe thunderstorms towards daybreak Friday.

Flooding will also remain a concern into early Friday morning
along and north of the Interstate 40 corridor. This is where
localized heavy rainfall has occurred this week, and an additional
2-4" inches is likely with the convective cluster/line overnight.
A Flood Watch begins at 7 PM this evening and continues until 12
PM Friday.

Ungar

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Saturday night)
Issued at 128 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

Friday: The convective complex discussed above will be ongoing
towards daybreak, and slowly decay as it translates into east-
central/southeast Oklahoma towards midday. At least occasional
severe weather risk, likely focusing on mainly damaging wind gusts,
will remain possible during this time.

Outflow along the complexes southwest periphery will likely slow
and stall across the central/southern portions of the forecast
area into Friday afternoon. There will be low potential for a
severe thunderstorm or two near this quasi-stationary
feature/modified boundary from the late afternoon into early
evening. If thunderstorms form, a severe weather risk (large
hail/damaging winds/a tornado) will ensue.

Friday Night: Another convective complex, with similar evolution to
that of early Friday morning, is expected from late Friday into
early Saturday. With a continued unstable airmass progged across the
region, severe weather concern will exist with this activity. With
upscale growth expected (into a mesoscale convective system),
damaging winds will once again be the main hazard, though concern
for large hail and a tornado or two will also remain.

Saturday: Thunderstorm activity is likely to be ongoing during the
morning, posing some occasional risk for severe weather towards
midday. Once again, a remnant outflow may provide enough focus/lift
for additional thunderstorms into the afternoon and evening before
additional convective complexes impact portions of the area,
perhaps focused further south across Oklahoma and north Texas,
into the early morning on Sunday.

Ungar

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 936 AM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

Continued potential for areas/complexes of thunderstorms will remain
the main weather message as we end the weekend and begin a new week.
The upstream upper air pattern looks to evolve towards a more
dominant/high-amplitude ridge across the West Coast. Ahead of this
feature, a strong upper wave will dig across the Great
Lakes/Northeast early in the period. Trailing fronts/impulses
will offer enough support for episodic rounds of showers and
thunderstorms. This includes potential for severe weather, most
especially across western Oklahoma into western-north Texas on
Sunday (risk for mainly damaging wind gusts and large hail).

A transition towards drier surface weather is currently forecast as
we head into Tuesday and beyond, as the upper ridge begins to shift
eastward. Temperatures will begin a more sustained (slow) uptrend
during this time, with mid to upper-80s high temperatures.

Ungar

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1247 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

Initially VFR conditions will give way to varied category late
Thursday evening into Friday morning. Convective coverage will
steadily increase through the evening, peaking early Friday
morning. In addition to reduced visibility, erratic-gusty winds
can be expected near thunderstorms. Low stratus is also expected
by Friday morning.

Safe travels!

Ungar

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  69  86  68  86 /  80  60  60  40
Hobart OK         66  89  67  91 /  70  30  50  10
Wichita Falls TX  72  93  72  94 /  30  20  20  10
Gage OK           61  81  61  85 /  90  20  80  10
Ponca City OK     66  83  65  83 /  90  40  80  40
Durant OK         73  91  74  91 /  40  40  10  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch from 7 PM CDT this evening through Friday afternoon
     for OKZ004>020-024>026.

TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...09
SHORT TERM...09
LONG TERM....09
AVIATION...09