759
FXUS64 KOUN 042326
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
626 PM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 517 PM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

- Low rain/thunderstorm chances continue into next week.

- Hot and humid conditions return next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 100 PM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

An anomalously moist and weakly capped air mass remains
entrenched across the Southern Plains on this Fourth of July. The
Norman (OUN) weather balloon data had an observed precipitable
water value of 2.20", which is a daily record for 12Z per the SPC
Sounding Climatology.

As a result, we`ll continue to see additional scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms with daytime heating this afternoon.
Not everyone will see rainfall given the limited size of the
showers, but if you happen to get a shower, brief, heavy rainfall
will be the primary hazard given the high precipitable water
values. With a rather high freezing level (~16,000 ft) and shallow
convection, most showers are not expected to become deep enough
to produce lightning. Nevertheless, if a shower does become tall
enough, there will be an attendant cloud-to-ground lightning
threat.

The mix of sun of clouds will keep temperatures cooler than
average with highs generally in the 80s deg F. Some locations near
the Red River could reach 90 deg F with sufficient sun breaking
through the clouds.

Coverage of any ongoing showers/storms should decrease this
evening with the gradual loss of daytime heating. There is a low
chance that remnant showers/storms may approach northwest Oklahoma
late tonight (near or after midnight). No severe weather is
expected with activity.

By late tonight/toward sunrise, additional showers may develop in
tandem with the 925/850 mb low-level jet. The chance looks lower
than this morning; however, given the moist air mass in place, it
seems reasonable to include a chance of rain.

Mahale

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Sunday night)
Issued at 100 PM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

The Southern Plains will remain within a moist and weakly capped
air mass through the upcoming weekend. Preciptable water values
are forecast to gradually decrease, but they`ll still remain
generally above 1.75".

This pattern will result a continued chance of primarily daytime
showers and isolated thunderstorms. Coverage does seem to be more
limited than past days given the lower precipitable water values
and lack of any appreciable synoptic-scale forcing. There is also
chance remnant convection may approach northwest Oklahoma Saturday
night into Sunday morning.

The primary hazard will continue to be brief, heavy rainfall with
the most intense showers/storms. Similar to today, rainfall is
not expected to widespread where everyone will see rain, so there
should definitely be dry periods this weekend.

Temperatures are expected to generally range from the upper 80s
to low 90s deg F through the weekend.

Mahale

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Thursday)
Issued at 100 PM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

By next week, a ~596 dam mid-level ridge is progged to develop
across the southwest U.S., which will place the Southern Plains on
the northeast periphery of the mid-level ridge. Northwest flow
aloft will result in a continue chance for showers and
thunderstorms--especially across northern Oklahoma--as this is a
favorable pattern for embedded shortwaves and/or remnant High
Plains thunderstorm complexes to move southeastward into the
Southern Plains.

In addition, rising mid-level heights and higher low-level
temperatures (e.g., 850 mb temperatures) will likely result in
hotter, more seasonable temperatures (highs in the 90s deg F) for
July. Given the position of the mid-level ridge to our southwest,
above-average temperatures remain unlikely (e.g., widespread 100s
deg F). Even so, given the humid conditions in place, heat indices
may reach the low to mid-100s deg F across at least southern
parts of the area. Temperatures will also be modulated by the
strength of any thunderstorm complexes (e.g., a stronger complex
that advances farther south may result in lower temperatures).

Mahale

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 517 PM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

Isolated showers are expected to diminish around beginning of
forecast with mainly VFR conditions. MVFR and possibly some IFR
conditions likely to redevelop overnight and possibly linger
through the morning hours before rising to VFR during the
afternoon Saturday. CSM may see some lower visibility to go along
with lower ceilings, have added a tempo of 1sm and fog toward
morning. Light southeast winds overnight will increase some
tomorrow midday, but should be 12kts or less.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  71  85  70  88 /  10  20  10  20
Hobart OK         70  87  69  90 /  10  20  10  20
Wichita Falls TX  72  86  71  88 /  20  20  10  20
Gage OK           68  89  68  91 /  10  10  20  20
Ponca City OK     71  87  70  90 /  10  20  20  30
Durant OK         73  90  72  92 /  20  20  10  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...10
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...30