874
FXUS64 KOUN 200503
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1203 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025

...New NEAR TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1202 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025

- Showers and thunderstorms expected through Sunday.

- Severe weather risk this afternoon and tonight, mainly across
  eastern portions of western-north Texas into south-central and
  southeast Oklahoma.

- Heavy rainfall potential increases this evening and overnight.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1202 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025

See previous discussions regarding this morning`s severe/hydro
event prior to daybreak.

Cyclogenesis will occur this morning across central Oklahoma as the
compact upper-level low sweeps through. Given the widespread storms
this past night, the mid-60s dewpoints will remain limited to the
Red River Valley, but mid-50s dewpoints will reach up to the OK/KS
border. CAMs are in good agreement that an arc of shallow convection
will develop along the Pacific front as it rapidly sweeps east of I-
35. Instability will be limited, but wind profiles will favor a
gusty wind/brief tornado threat across southeast Oklahoma where
richer boundary-layer moisture exists.

The arrival of the Pacific front will signal drier air coming in
from the west and the long-awaited conclusion to this weekend`s rain
event. Heights will rise through tonight as a subtropical ridge
tries to become dominant across the region. Highs today will
generally be in the 60s, and with drier air coming in, lows will be
able to get into the 40s tonight.

Meister

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday night)
Issued at 138 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

The upper trough will dig northeast across Oklahoma Sunday morning
with a Pacific front bringing in dry air from the west. Thus,
precipitation chances will diminish through the morning hours Sunday
from west to east. Lingering wrap around moisture may give way to a
few additional showers and thunderstorms across northern Oklahoma
through the early afternoon hours before all precipitation comes to
an end by Sunday evening. Clearing skies with the incoming dry
airmass will help to give way to daytime heating and highs in the
60s. Southerly return flow Monday under zonal flow aloft will give
way to pleasantly dry and warm weather with highs in the 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 215 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

The next broad mid-level trough develops over the Western United
States early in the week, and a series of shortwaves are expected
to move toward the southern Plains in the southwest flow aloft
through the week. As these shortwaves eject toward the Plains,
areas of showers and storms will again affect the area as early as
Tuesday afternoon, with chances persisting through the remainder
of the week. Specific timing of the most widespread precipitation
may shift as we go forward as timing of individual shortwaves is
challenging this far in advance.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1144 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

Repeated rounds of thunderstorms and heavy rain continue tonight,
particularly in southern and southeastern Oklahoma. The bulk of
the heavy rain should end between 10Z and 12Z, to be replaced by
IFR/LIFR ceilings across much of the area and winds shifting from
northerly back to easterly. A front will move west to east across
the area during the morning hours. Along the front, a final round
of showers and thunderstorms will push through. Behind the front,
winds will shift to westerly and skies will gradually become VFR.

Meister

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  63  45  75  53 /  80   0   0   0
Hobart OK         65  44  77  52 /  80   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  69  47  79  53 /  30   0   0   0
Gage OK           64  41  79  52 / 100   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     61  41  77  52 /  90   0   0   0
Durant OK         72  49  78  54 /  80   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch through this evening for OKZ008-012-013-018>020-
     023>032-037>048-050>052.

TX...Flood Watch through this evening for TXZ085-086-088>090.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...04
SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...04