163
FXUS64 KOUN 011735
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1235 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1232 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2025

 - Showers/storms remain possible parts of southern OK and western
   north TX this afternoon into tonight

 - Periods of showers and thunderstorms possible Saturday evening
   through Monday.

 - Gradual warming trend through the next week with triple digits
   returning by the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2025

Cluster of showers/storms continues to move east across parts of
western north TX and far SW OK this morning. At times, this area
looks like an MCV is trying to develop. This activity is expected to
continue to move east with storm chances continuing along the Red
River this afternoon, especially if an MCV does establish itself.
Otherwise, isolated/scattered showers/storms will remain possible
this afternoon/evening across portions of southern OK and western
north TX. Gusty winds and small hail will be possible with the
stronger storms. With PWATs of 1.5" to 2" in the area, heavy rain
and maybe localized flooding will also continue to be a concern. Low
rain chances will continue tonight into early Saturday primarily
over the SE quarter or so of the fa.

With clouds and the cooler airmass in place, temperatures this
afternoon are expected to range from the low 80s to around 90. Lows
tonight are expected to fall into the 60s to low 70s across the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Sunday night)
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2025

Some showers/storms may be lingering across parts of the area
Saturday morning. The higher chance for storms this weekend will be
Saturday night into Sunday night. Models show storms developing in
the High Plains of CO/NM Saturday afternoon/evening as a shortwave
moves across the Rockies. These storms are expected to develop into
an MCS that would move into the fa Saturday night. Shower/storm
development is expected to continue Sunday into Sunday night as the
shortwave continues to move and potentially strengthening in the
NW flow over the region. A few of the storms could become severe
Sunday. Heavy rain will also continue to be a concern through the
weekend.

Temperatures are forecast to be a few degrees warmer this weekend
compared to today but still below average with highs in the 80s and
low/mid 90s. Low temperatures will also continue in the 60s to low
70s through the weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 1236 AM CDT Fri Aug 1 2025

The ridge will build eastward over New Mexico at the start of the
week and remain nearly stationary through the work week. A potential
for weak embedded shortwaves around the northern periphery of the
ridge to develop afternoon/evening storms in the Central Plains.
Activity may move southward into the overnight hours with the north-
northwesterly flow aloft. Despite the ridge, weak lee troughing will
bring southerly surface flow and warm downsloping winds to the area.
Thus, warmer temperatures will return again with triple digit heat
by mid-week. Additionally, the low-level jet will ramp up each night
which may help in developing/sustaining storm activity.
Precipitation chances remain fairly low through the week with the
recent run of the National Blend of Models (NBM), but this is no
shock this far out and chances may increase with time.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2025

A small cluster of thunderstorms is moving across western north
Texas early this afternoon.  This is expected to impact the SPS
terminal for a few hours (mainly through 20-21Z) with MVFR to
perhaps IFR conditions (visibility and maybe ceilings). Outflow
winds with this cluster may bring additional development and
perhaps impact LAW, but not confident in this. Will add a mention
for Lawton through 20/21Z. Otherwise, MVFR to VFR conditions will
prevail. There`s a chance of low cloud developing again overnight
into early Saturday with IFR/MVFR ceilings possible. This will
mainly occur across the southern 2/3rds of Oklahoma and western
north Texas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  68  86  68  85 /   0   0  10  40
Hobart OK         67  92  69  88 /   0  10  20  60
Wichita Falls TX  70  92  71  93 /  10  10   0  30
Gage OK           62  88  65  83 /  10  10  40  70
Ponca City OK     65  85  65  84 /   0   0  10  40
Durant OK         72  88  69  89 /  30  20   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...25
SHORT TERM...25
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...06