786
FXUS64 KOUN 171808
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1208 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1205 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2025


  - Elevated fire danger this afternoon western Oklahoma.

  - Near record heat Monday and Tuesday.

  - Thunderstorms and heavy rainfall possible late Wednesday into
    Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 1205 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

Surface trough will continue to move through western toward central
Oklahoma this afternoon, scouring out much of the low level moisture
and eroding much of the remainder of the stratus. This may limit the
potential across central/eastern parts of the area from reaching
record highs, however farther southwest records are still on the
table.

Portions of western Oklahoma and western north Texas will see a
period of elevated fire weather this afternoon before temps begin to
cool, RH levels rise and winds diminish around sunset.

As the initial upper low continues to lift to the northeast
overnight, a weak surface cold front will enter northwest Oklahoma
toward morning. Expect to see quite a contrast in overnight lows as
southeast Oklahoma will likely keep higher dewpoints in place which
will keep temperatures in the 60s. Meanwhile behind the front in
northwest Oklahoma lows will fall into the lower 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 1205 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

The weak cold front will gradually slide south across the area on
Tuesday before stalling near the Red River Tuesday night. With the
richer, deeper moisture located south and east of the area on
Tuesday and shortwave ridging(height rises) any precip is expected
to remain well south and east of the area. Temperatures may approach
record highs south of the front across southern Oklahoma and north
Texas. Parts of southeast Oklahoma may approach 90 degrees.

Front will begin to lift back to the north late Tuesday night as a
lead shortwave lifts north across the High Plains. As this occurs
higher theta-e air will also begin to lift back north across
Oklahoma. However, with lack of lift as stronger forcing from
shortwave remains across west Texas, no real height falls occurring
during the day and rather strong cap in place across the warm
sector, much of the area looks to remain dry through a good part of
the day Wednesday. Perhaps by afternoon with daytime heating we may
see a few showers/thunderstorms develop across southern half of
Oklahoma southward into north Texas, but again cap will need to be
overcome.

Things start to change Wednesday night as better forcing shifts
farther east and waa develops/strengthens increasing rain chances
across the area.


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 1208 AM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

The main change to the forecast in the Wednesday to Thursday period
is perhaps a slower onset of showers and thunderstorms and lower
rainfall totals.  Regardless, there still appears that most of
Oklahoma and western north Texas will receive at least 1/2 inch of
rainfall with the Wednesday/Thursday system, with a good chance
of isolated totals around 3+ inches.

On Wednesday, a warm front and higher theta-e air will lift
northward into Oklahoma and western north Texas, as an upper low
moves east of southern California.  Mid and high clouds will also
increase and are more effective at limiting insolation in mid to
late November. With weak to perhaps neutral height falls, it
possible that most of the warm sector will remain capped to deep
moist convection. We will still maintain at least a 30 percent
chance of showers and storms during the daylight hours Wednesday.
If storms can develop, especially across southern
Oklahoma/northern Texas, strong thunderstorms are possible.

As better forcing arrives late Wednesday and especially Thursday,
widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop.
Although strong storms are possible, the risk of heavy rainfall will
increase.  Guidance suggest the best chance of heavy rainfall totals
will be south and east of Interstate 44, but would not be surprise
if this shifts northward. By late Thursday into Friday, mid and
upper level drying will diminish the risk of heavy rainfall, as
well as rain chances.

By early to midday Friday, rain chances will decrease significantly
as the upper low/trough moves north and east of the southern Plains.
This system is also expected to push a decent cold front through the
area Friday with gusty northwest overspreading the area Friday
afternoon into Friday night.  The air mass behind the front will not
be very dry, but enough to allow overnight lows to drop to near
mid/late November averages.  How quickly another storm system to our
west approaches is uncertain.  However, even with a faster solution,
which would bring some chances of rain to the area late Saturday into
Sunday, moisture would be lacking. Therefore, any rain will be on
the light side.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1045 AM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

Low ceiling restrictions will continue to improve this morning
and will maintain VFR conditions for most locations through the
period. MVFR ceilings will be possible at KDUA Tuesday morning.

South-southwest winds will be gusty at times this afternoon, then
becoming weaker after sunset. For most locations, winds will
shift by tomorrow morning as a weak front moves through.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  53  75  50  76 /   0   0   0  30
Hobart OK         48  77  48  76 /   0   0   0  30
Wichita Falls TX  54  83  55  80 /   0   0   0  40
Gage OK           42  70  43  71 /   0   0   0  10
Ponca City OK     47  73  46  71 /   0   0   0  10
Durant OK         67  86  60  83 /  10   0   0  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...13