111
FXUS64 KOUN 171835
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
135 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 111 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

 - Locally heavy downpours, lightning, and strong to severe wind
   gusts are possible with thunderstorm activity this afternoon
   and evening across northern, western, and central Oklahoma.

 - Rain chances fall to near zero starting Friday, with hot and
   humid conditions building into next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 135 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

The quasi-stationary boundary draped from western to north-central
Oklahoma may slowly sag southward with continued shower and
thunderstorm chances lingering over northern, western, and
central Oklahoma this afternoon and into the evening hours. With
a very moist environment in place, locally heavy rainfall will be
the main concern. However, strong to severe wind gusts (up to 60
mph) are possible, as well. Heat index values of 100 to 105 deg
are expected this afternoon for some areas ahead of the boundary.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Saturday night)
Issued at 135 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

The mid-level ridge begins to strengthen over the southern plains
as a lee-side trough deepens with the passage of northern stream
shortwaves. As a result, we will see an increase in south winds
and temperatures Friday and Saturday, with dry conditions. Cloud-
cover is anticipated to be much less than today, and daytime
mixing will lower dewpoint temperatures. However, the increased
heat will keep index values around 100 to 105 deg both afternoons.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 135 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

The heat continues to build over our region on Sunday and into
next week as the ridge remains overhead. Widespread heat index
values of at least 105 degrees (Heat Advisory criteria) are
possible beginning on Sunday. Precipitation chances remain less
than 10 percent.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

Although shower and thunderstorm coverage across northern and
central Oklahoma continues to decrease early this afternoon,
additional thunderstorms are expected to develop. An outflow
boundary/surface front extends from near Stillwater to Arnett with
other smaller scale boundaries across southwestern Oklahoma. As
heating continues through the afternoon, scattered thunderstorms
are expected towards end of the
   week into next week.to form mainly near the aforementioned outflow
boundaries. Some of the storms may produce strong gusty winds and
very heavy downpours.

IFR to MVFR ceilings have developed behind the outflow boundary in
northern Oklahoma, especially across northwestern Oklahoma.
Ceilings should improve through the afternoon, but low clouds may
redevelop late this evening and overnight.  Otherwise, mainly VFR
conditions are expected, except near and within thunderstorms this
afternoon/evening (mainly MVFR ceilings with perhaps IFR
visibility).

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  74  97  74  97 /  30   0   0   0
Hobart OK         73 101  73 101 /  30   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  74 101  73 100 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           69  97  73 100 /  20  10   0   0
Ponca City OK     73  96  74  98 /  30  10   0   0
Durant OK         72  98  74  97 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...01
SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...06