635
FXUS64 KOUN 171110
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
610 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 229 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025

 - Severe weather is expected Today, Sunday, and Monday. All
   hazards possible.

 - Above normal temperatures will continue through Monday; cooler
   toward midweek

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 229 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025

Today will be the first of multiple days with a risk for severe
storms. Models show a warm front lifting northward across the area
today and tonight. Models still don`t agree on how far north the
warm front will reach by late afternoon although several of the 0Z
runs seem to be a little farther north than 24 hours ago with the
frontal position possibly near or a bit north of the I-40 corridor
by late afternoon. The warm front will allow a moist, unstable air
mass to spread northward across the area with 70s dewpoints moving
into parts of the fa. A dryline is also expected to extend southward
from the warm front across western portions of the fa this
afternoon. Meanwhile in the mid/upper levels, models are showing the
potential for a weak disturbance to also move into the southern
Plains later today.

Thunderstorm development will be possible later today into tonight.
CAMs are showing the potential for two areas of storm development.
The first area could develop as early as 17Z-19Z near the dryline in
west TX which could develop into a cluster/line that would
spread/move into parts of western north TX and southern OK this
afternoon/evening. The other area would be the potential for fewer
but more discrete storms farther north near the warm front late this
afternoon/evening. The airmass will be unstable with CAPE values
forecast to range from 2000 to 4000+ J/kg. The strong instability
and sufficient wind shear will lead to a risk for severe storms. All
hazards will be possible although large hail and damaging winds will
be the primary concerns. The tornado risk will likely be highest
near the warm front where better shear will be possible. The severe
potential is expected to end late this evening although low storm
chances will continue overnight in parts of the fa with WAA.

Models show the warm front continuing to lift northward tonight.
With the moist airmass expected to be over the area, warmer
temperatures are expected tonight with lows mostly in the 60s to
around 70. The exception may be in NW OK where temperatures may
still be able to fall into the upper 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday night)
Issued at 229 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025

The severe potential will continue on Sunday and Monday.

Sunday: One of the questions for Sunday is storm coverage. Some
models go as far as showing no storm development at all late Sunday
afternoon/evening. However, with the environment over the area, any
storms will have the potential to become severe with all hazards
possible.

Now for some of the details. Models show a dryline sharpening near
the 100th meridian with a very moist airmass east of the dryline.
Some models show 70s dewpoints making it as far north as the KS/OK
border. In the mid/upper levels, models show a shortwave lifting NE
into the central Plains Sunday afternoon/evening with the better
forcing occurring in KS. Lift associated with the dryline and
heating could be sufficient for storm development near the dryline
Sunday afternoon/evening although the higher chance for storm
development could be in northern parts of the fa which would be
closer to the shortwave and synoptic forcing. Strong instability is
expected Sunday with surface based CAPE values of 4000+ possible.
The strong instability and sufficient wind shear will make severe
storms possible.

The fly in the ointment on whether storms develop or not late Sunday
afternoon/evening is that some of the CAMs want to develop some
storms earlier in the day (potential due to a subtle disturbance
moving into the region) that could be affecting storm development
later in the day. However, there is some question associated with
the storm development earlier in the day and its impact on
convection late Sunday afternoon/evening.

In summary, for Sunday there may only be a few storms (if any at
all) late Sunday afternoon/evening but what storms develop they will
likely be severe.

Monday: Better storm coverage (compared to Sunday) and fewer
questions about storm development are expected Monday. Models show
the dryline potentially drifting westward a little bit Sunday night
then pushing eastward across western parts of the fa and approaching
I-35, although currently forecast to stay west of I-35, by Monday
afternoon. A cool front is then expected to move into the area
Monday evening and continue to move SE across the fa Monday night.
In the mid/upper levels, the main upper trough is expected to begin
to move into the Plains providing synoptic lift to the region.

Forcing associated with the upper trough along with the dryline and
cool front will likely lead to storm development Monday into early
Tuesday. The moist, unstable airmass that will be in place Sunday is
not expected to go anywhere so strong instability (CAPE 3000-4000+
J/kg) and wind shear is expected again on Monday and Monday night.
This environment will continue the potential for severe storms
Monday/Monday night with all hazards possible. In fact, Monday could
be the highest impact (affect the most people) day due to storm
coverage and the potential for severe weather. Unlike storms this
weekend, the severe risk could extend into the overnight and early
Tuesday morning hours as the cool front moves across the fa.

With multiple days in a row with a risk for severe storms, everyone
needs to stay weather aware. However, not everyone is going to see
storms everyday and some may only see storms at most one of the days.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 229 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025

Models show storm chances gradually ending Tuesday as the upper
trough slowly exits the region. After Tuesday, the forecast remains
dry until maybe late next week/weekend.

Cooler temperatures are expected Tuesday-Thursday with highs in the
70s and low 80s compared to highs in the 80s and 90s this weekend
into Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 610 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025

Outside of brief intervals of MVFR cig potential at KDUA through
the mid-morning, mainly VFR conditions are expected until the end
of the valid period (~08 UTC Sunday).

Scattered areas of convection are forecast to develop and spread
across north Texas and into central and southern Oklahoma during
the afternoon and evening Saturday. Coverage is expected to be
limited enough to allow for PROB30 mentions, though lowered
category can be expected should a thunderstorm impact a terminal.

Increasing stratus coverage is likely by early Sunday morning,
mainly for terminals along and east of Interstate 35.

Safe travels!

Ungar

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  85  64  84  68 /  30  30  30  20
Hobart OK         88  63  88  64 /  10  10  20  10
Wichita Falls TX  91  67  88  69 /  40  10  30  20
Gage OK           85  57  90  56 /  20  20  10   0
Ponca City OK     80  60  81  66 /  10  50  60  30
Durant OK         89  68  84  70 /  60  20  40  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...25
SHORT TERM...25
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...09