233
FXUS64 KOUN 181922
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
222 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 216 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025

- Showers & thunderstorms expected this afternoon through Sunday.

- Severe weather risk today and tonight, and again Saturday
  afternoon and evening.

- Heavy rainfall potential increases tonight, but especially late
  Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 216 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025

Thunderstorm and severe weather chances will increase later this
afternoon into the overnight hours across much of the area.

As of 2 PM, surface observations show a cold front along a line
from Stillwater-Norman-Gracemont-Tillman-Crowell. This frontal
boundary has slowed down over the last few hours, but it is
expected to keep moving southward this afternoon and evening. As a
mid-level longwave trough pushes through the Desert Southwest
today, a shortwave ahead of the main wave will move across the
Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles. This large scale ascent will
provide enough support for widespread convection across the area.
Strong cloud layer shear will support large hail up to 2 inches
across the entire risk area. The cold front, however, will be the
focal point for additional severe hazards. Any locations along and
south of the could front will have the potential for surface-
based storms capable of very large hail, damaging wind gusts, and
a few tornadoes.

The main uncertainty with this system is where the frontal
boundary will be when storms begin to initiate around 4-6 PM, and
how far south the boundary will continue to move through the
evening. Models have indicated that the lead shortwave would cause
lee troughing across the southern Rockies, which would slow the
front down. Given the current orientation of the frontal boundary
(SSW-NNE), training of storms along the boundary are possible
which would lead to flooding potential overnight.

Needless to say, widespread severe storms are possible today and
tonight across a broad area, so make sure you have multiple ways
of receiving weather information.

Bunker

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Sunday night)
Issued at 216 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025

Widespread storms are expected again Saturday and Sunday as the
main wave moves through the southern Plains. Severe weather will
be possible again Saturday afternoon and evening along and south
of the frontal boundary. As of right now, there is a risk for
severe weather along and south of I-44, but the northward extent
of this risk will be decided by how far south the boundary moves.
Areas along southern and southeastern Oklahoma and western north
Texas will have the greatest potential for seeing severe weather,
with all hazards possible.

Numerous rounds of storms, in addition to training of storms,
will foster the potential for flooding concerns. There is a Flood
Watch out right now from 00Z Saturday through Monday 00Z across
north central, central, southern and southwestern Oklahoma, and
portions of western north Texas. These areas have the best
potential for seeing 2-3 inches of rainfall, with 5+ inches
possible locally.

Precipitation will diminish on Sunday afternoon and evening as
the main mid-level trough moves over and then northeast of the
forecast area.

Bunker

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 424 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025

After a lull in storm chances Monday, the chances increase again
Tuesday with a shortwave moving toward the Plains in the broad
southwesterly mid-level flow. This is just the first of a series
of waves that will move over the area this week with precipitation
chances persisting through the remainder of the work week with
showers and storms expected to be widespread at times.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025

Varied category is expected across the region through the period.
Brief intervals of MVFR stratus remain possible at
KPNC/KSWO/KOKC/KOUN through 2000 UTC this afternoon. Precipitation
coverage (including thunder) will increase across the region from
this evening into Saturday morning. Have included at least PROB30
mentions to cover this threat, when MVFR to perhaps IFR
conditions will be possible.

Safe travels!

Ungar

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  50  62  55  66 /  80  90 100  80
Hobart OK         47  62  50  65 /  60  70 100  70
Wichita Falls TX  59  72  57  70 /  80  90 100  50
Gage OK           38  53  42  62 /  50  30  90  80
Ponca City OK     47  57  52  65 /  90  90  90  90
Durant OK         62  75  64  73 /  80  90  90  80

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch from 7 PM CDT this evening through Sunday evening
     for OKZ008-012-013-018>020-023>032-037>047-050.

TX...Flood Watch from 7 PM CDT this evening through Sunday evening
     for TXZ085-086-088>090.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...13
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...09