880
FXUS64 KOUN 121800
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1200 PM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1140 AM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

 - Unseasonably warmer temperatures will persist through early
   next week.

 - Warming trend peaks Friday into Saturday which could tie or
   break temperature records for both days.

 - Rain chances return early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1140 AM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

A weak cold front stretching down from a system moving across the
Great Lakes Region is expected to wash out later this afternoon
in southern Oklahoma. Mild yet above average temperatures for
today in the lower 70s before a warming trend. Northwest flow
aloft will continue to increase dense Cirrus through tonight
across our area all originating from dirty ridging across the
Western United States. Southerly winds will gradually make a
return tonight along with increasing gulf moisture. Although light
across most of our area, the south-southeasterly surface winds
may be ample to produce advection fog by mid-morning across parts
of our southern CWA. Latest DESI ensemble runs project near 50%
probability for fog across southeast Oklahoma where moisture
advection and winds may be strongest to a 20-30% across the
remaining aforementioned areas. For this forecast will add patchy
fog mainly across southcentral through southeast Oklahoma toward
mid-morning Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday through Friday night)
Issued at 1140 AM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

Weak upper ridging in the tropical jet out west will be building
in over the Southern Plains while increasing southerly low-level
flow will be starting a warming trend on Thursday into Friday. By
Friday we could see widespread highs in the lower to mid 80s
across all but northern Oklahoma and could potentially tie or
break a few temperature records for that date.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1157 PM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

We continue to trend toward a slower trough/cutoff low ejection late
this weekend into early next week. In practical terms, this has
decreased the chance for precipitation across our area and also
means that Saturday is looking like another day of potential record
heat. In fact, our gridded forecast now shows Saturday to be the
warmest day of the upcoming period. We may even push 90 degrees in
parts of western north Texas. Once again, most of the area should
reside within the moist sector, so fire weather concerns are
mitigated. With that said, we will have to watch the dryline`s
progression.

Forecast models are coming into increasing agreement in showing the
upper-level low being completely sheared apart before it even
arrives in our area. This has produced the somewhat comical trend
over the last several days where operational guidance has faded from
considering a possible heavy rain/flood event over the weekend in
southern Oklahoma to an event where our gridded forecast fails to
exceed a 30 percent chance of rain anywhere in our area. While rain
chances over the weekend have decreased, there also is not much of a
sign of a Gulf-scouring cold front, so we`ll continue to monitor the
middle to latter portions of the month for potential storm chances.

Meister

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1034 AM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

VFR conditions expected this TAF period. There are some
indications that some low clouds may move into parts of south
central OK early Thu and/or maybe even some patchy fog develops.
However, there is enough uncertainty that have not put in TAFs.
Winds will be relatively light this afternoon into early Thu. The
winds are expected to gradually shift towards the SE this
afternoon and evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  72  48  76  55 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK         75  44  78  47 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  76  48  81  56 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           71  40  76  41 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     72  43  75  51 /   0   0   0   0
Durant OK         75  52  79  60 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...68
SHORT TERM...68
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...25