704
FXUS64 KOUN 131906
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
206 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 204 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

- Heat wave continues with dangerous heat each afternoon.

- Strong to severe thunderstorms, some with damaging wind gusts,
  are possible in northwest Oklahoma later Thursday and Friday
  afternoon into the evening.

- Elevated fire weather continues, and a Red Flag Warning is in
  effect for northwest/far western Oklahoma for potential dry
  lightning strikes.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 204 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

Extremely hot conditions are already observed over portions of
northern and localized parts of southwest Oklahoma. The highest
air temperature observed so far is 110 at the Alva mesonet
station (Woods County) and heat indices are hovering above the
110 degree mark across north-central Oklahoma. A dry atmosphere is
in place as current readings show relative humidity values
ranging from 20 to 35 percent across the area. As additional
daytime heating raises air temperatures further over the next
several hours, relative humidity is expected to bottom out in the
upper teens across northwest Oklahoma.

South-southwest winds at 15 to 20 mph with gusts to 35 mph are
expected to continue through late afternoon or early evening, with
erratic strong to severe outflow winds possible from any highly
elevated shower/storm cores this afternoon and evening. Elevated
to locally near critical fire weather conditions will be centered
across northwest Oklahoma this afternoon, and concerns for dry
lightning and fire risk remain. The Red Flag Warning remains in
effect until 9 PM for northwest and far western Oklahoma.

Overnight low temperatures are expected to remain quite warm -
near 80 degrees. While the Extreme Heat Warning will expire this
evening, the advisory will remain in effect overnight.

Thompson

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Saturday night)
Issued at 204 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

The Heat Advisory remains in place for the entire FA for Friday,
and has been extended through Sunday evening for roughly the
eastern half of the FA. Air temperatures will trend slightly
downward during this period. However, continued return flow and
moisture advection will prompt afternoon heat indices to rise to
the 105 to 110 degree range for the aforementioned areas. A cold
front is forecast to arrive in northwest Oklahoma late Saturday
night or early Sunday morning and has the potential to slowly
push southward. However, there remains considerable model variation
with this. As it stands now, high temperatures will dip into the
mid-90`s on Sunday. Elsewhere, triple-digit heat remains.

There remains a marginal risk of severe storms with severe wind
gusts possible Friday afternoon and evening over far northwest
Oklahoma. Low shower/storm chances linger over a smaller area of
northwest Oklahoma late Saturday.

While there will be elevated fire weather conditions Friday and
Saturday afternoons over western Oklahoma and adjacent north
Texas, areas appear to be rather localized.

Thompson

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 131 AM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

We welcome the ridge back overhead during the day on Sunday as a
broad jet streak moves across the northern part of the country. This
will be accompanied by a weak frontal boundary attempting to move
into the northern part of the CWA. Those two competing factors will
actually produce a weak gradient in high temperatures by Monday
afternoon with hotter temperatures clustered around the Red River
and highs in northern Oklahoma potentially remaining in the 90s.
That frontal boundary is also the best chance anyone in our area has
to receive significant drought-busting rainfall. Even those odds are
not all that good, and mostly limited to far northern Oklahoma.

Guidance is starting to indicate that a trough could dig southward
to near or into our CWA by the middle of next week. It`s unclear
whether this scenario comes to pass or not, but bears watching in
the coming days. If we did get a trough passage, there would likely
be impactful weather of some sort for mid-to-late next week -
perhaps more extreme heat, or fire weather, or maybe even
rain/storms.

Meister

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1203 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period. The
vast majority of the area can expect dry conditions with gusty
south-southwest winds. Isolated thunderstorms are possible late
this afternoon into early evening across western/northwestern OK
which could contain strong and erratic wind gusts along with the
potential for bried visibility reductions from blowing dust.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  79 102  77 101 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK         81 104  77 103 /  10   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  79 104  78 103 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           78 103  75 103 /  20  20  10   0
Ponca City OK     81 104  78 103 /   0  10  10   0
Durant OK         77 102  77 102 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Friday for OKZ004-009-010-014>017-
     021>023-033>038-044.

     Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ004-005-009-
     010-014-021-033.

     Extreme Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ005>008-
     011>013-018>020.

     Heat Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 8 PM CDT Friday for
     OKZ005.

     Heat Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM CDT Sunday for
     OKZ006>008-011>013-018>020.

     Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Sunday for OKZ024>032-039>043-
     045>048-050>052.

TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Friday for TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...01
SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...08