436
FXUS64 KOUN 111756
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1156 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1152 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025

 - Temperatures plunge into the 30s / 40s on Sunday (otherwise near
or above normal for the rest of the week)

 - Dry through early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1152 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025

We`re monitoring transient, marginal fire weather conditions again
today. Southwest surface flow is allowing us to warm up quite
efficiently. This, counter-balanced with increased moisture is
expected to result in a similar RH setup to yesterday. The current
forecast calls for RH`s near 20 percent in western north Texas with
an axis of 20-25 percent along a corridor parallel to and just
southeast of I-44. That said, some of our more extreme models bring
RH`s down into the mid teens across western north Texas.

Winds are breezy (15 to 20 mph) through much of southwest and
central Oklahoma, though this is expected to peak around noon, then
begin decreasing through the afternoon as the low level jet departs.
This will help keep peak winds and minimum RH`s from lining up
temporally.

Overall, the highest chances (moderate) for elevated RFTI`s are in
western north Texas with lower chances along that corridor southeast
of I-44.

Tonight we`ll see temperatures fall into the upper 30s and lower 40s
with light winds. Winds will begin to shift to northerly as a front
enters northern Oklahoma overnight.

Day

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Saturday night)
Issued at 1152 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025

Friday and Saturday will be cooler (closer to seasonable) after the
passage of the cold front, with a temperature gradient of lower 50s
in north central Oklahoma to the low to mid 60s in western north
Texas and southern Oklahoma. Post-frontal winds on Friday will
likely be breezy again, but cooler temperatures should help minimize
fire concerns.

Low temperatures will be decreasing through this period. Friday
night`s low will be in the upper 20s (northern OK) to the upper 30s
(southeast OK). A second cold front comes through Saturday night,
bringing Saturday night`s lows down into the mid teens (northern OK)
to mid 20s (southern OK / western north TX). Wind chills will be in
the single digits to mid teens.

Day

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 1218 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025

The colder temperatures will continue Sunday with highs in the mid
30s to mid 40s across the area. These temperatures are ~15 degrees
below average. The even colder wind chills will continue during at
least part of the day Sunday.

Southerly winds are expected to return Sunday night with
temperatures back into the 50s and 60s on Monday. The warmer
temperatures are expected to continue into at least the middle of
next week.

Models show a pattern shift towards the middle of next week with a
southern stream shortwave moving across the region Tuesday. However,
despite this shortwave and the multiple cold front passages over the
next 7 days, the chances for any precipitation are very low with
most if not all of the fa expected to remain dry into at least the
middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1119 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025

Gusty south/southwest winds will continue through the afternoon
before subsiding near sunset. A cold front will bring a northerly
wind shift late tonight into Friday morning. Skies will be mostly
clear other than some occasional high cirrus.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  42  56  31  53 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK         39  60  29  58 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  41  65  33  61 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           38  55  28  56 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     39  52  27  49 /   0   0   0   0
Durant OK         42  65  37  60 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...14
SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...08