695
FXUS64 KOUN 152329
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
529 PM CST Mon Dec 15 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 521 PM CST Mon Dec 15 2025

 - Mainly warm and dry weather throughout the upcoming week.

 - Monitoring fire weather potential for Thursday and Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(This afternoon and tonight) Issued at 1159 AM CST Mon Dec 15
2025

A rather extensive stratus deck has developed across parts of
Oklahoma and northern Texas this morning.  Although low clouds are
not expected to reach northwestern Oklahoma, low clouds will continue
to develop/increase across parts of south central and southeastern
Oklahoma this afternoon.  This will certainly limit heating across
this area during peak afternoon sunshine (albeit low and limited in
mid December).  During the afternoon and evening, the low clouds
should  gradually diminish from west to east, but will be replaced by
high clouds approaching from the west.

Modest moisture return is occurring today with the return of a
southerly breeze.  By early Tuesday morning, some patchy fog may
develop across parts of western Oklahoma near the western edge of a
weak moisture gradient.  Not overly confident this will occur as
high clouds may be thick enough to prevent ideal radiational
cooling.  By early Tuesday morning, temperatures are expected to
range from the upper 20s across northwestern Oklahoma to near 40
across western north Texas.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 1159 AM CST Mon Dec 15 2025

A weak mid-level trough will move across Oklahoma and western north
Texas Tuesday into Tuesday night.  As the trough axis moves east of
the area, most of the high clouds will dissipate or move east.  A
southerly wind will continue to transport better near-surface
moisture into the area.  This will help keep afternoon humidity
relatively high despite warmer afternoon highs (most areas).  With
the increase in moisture and light winds Tuesday night, will need to
watch for the potential of fog.

A southerly wind will increase all areas by Wednesday afternoon with
high temperatures warming into the 60s (most areas).  A modest cold
front will begin to move across northwestern Oklahoma late Wednesday
night.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 1225 AM CST Mon Dec 15 2025

A strong upper system (100+ kt jet core) looks to eject across the
Central Plains through the day on Thursday. While the associated
cold front is currently progged to sweep across the forecast area
during the morning hours, strongest post-frontal cold air
advection may remain delayed until later in the afternoon and
evening. As such, temperatures (especially across southern fringes
of the area) may continue to run near or just above normal prior
to a cold (20s) overnight period.

With continued strong quasi-zonal flow across the Rockies, daytime
conditions should rebound quickly by Friday, especially across
western Oklahoma and western-north Texas (low to mid-60s). The
latest NBM forecast for Saturday advertises mid-fall warmth, with
temperatures near and above 80 degrees, across the Texas
Panhandle into western Oklahoma and western-north Texas ahead of
another front.

While all passing system/fronts remain unlikely to bring us much of
anything on the precipitation front, increasing fire weather concern
is likely across portions of Oklahoma and north Texas from Thursday
onward. Something to keep an eye on given our recent stretch of
dry and often warm weather.

Ungar

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 521 PM CST Mon Dec 15 2025

Scattered to broken high clouds are expected through much of the
period. Patchy fog is possible near KWWR and KLAW, with dense fog
possible over portions of western Oklahoma and perhaps KCSM early
Tuesday morning. The corridor of fog looks to be rather narrow,
and latest short-term guidance has shifted the area a bit
westward. With low temperatures near the freezing mark, we will be
watching for the potential for freezing fog.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  33  60  36  61 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK         34  63  33  62 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  39  65  38  64 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           28  64  30  63 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     28  58  31  60 /   0   0   0   0
Durant OK         34  59  44  64 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...06
SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....09
AVIATION...01