200
FXUS64 KOUN 191900
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
200 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 157 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024

- Highest chances for showers/storms Sunday night/Monday.

    - Above average temperatures much of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 157 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024

Forecast is dry through tonight. The rain is currently expected to
remain west and northwest of the fa. Some of the activity may be
close to the border of our fa so there is an outside chance that a
few sprinkles or light showers could affect parts of the fa, mainly
far NW, but the chance of this is low enough that currently don`t
have a mention in the forecast. Will need to continue to monitor
though.

South to southeast winds will continue through tonight with winds
expected to decrease this evening. Clouds continue to decrease this
afternoon except in western parts of the fa where they are holding
on longer and mostly cloudy skies are occurring. These clouds are
still expected to decrease but much slower and maybe not to the
extent of what has occurred further east. If the clouds do not clear
out as much as expected then the lingering clouds could have an
affect on the temperature forecast for tonight. Cooler temperatures
are expected across the area tonight with lows expected to be in the
40s across the area but especially in those areas with light winds
and clear skies. However, low temperatures could be a bit warmer
than forecast in those areas, if any, that hold onto the cloud
cover.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday night)
Issued at 157 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024

Upper low currently over AZ is expected to move E and NE Sunday into
Monday moving into the central Plains Monday afternoon. This system
will bring the best chance for showers and storms during this
forecast period Sunday night into Monday with the highest chances
across northern OK closer to the track of the low. Parts of southern
OK and western north TX will likely not see much if any rain with
this system. Unfortunately, the expected rainfall totals will likely
be less than 1 inch. So some much needed rain but not significant
enough to mitigate some of the drought conditions seen across the
fa. In addition to the rain showers, enough instability could
develop for some storms to develop late Sunday into Monday but the
severe potential will be low.

Temperatures are expected to warm into the upper 70s and 80s Sunday
and Monday with the "cooler" temperatures most likely occurring
where there is cloud cover and rain.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 147 AM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024

Update: the overall forecast hasn`t changed much from what was
mentioned below. The previous discussion mentions uncertainty
towards the middle of next week when a front moves into the area
which continues. In this uncertainty, the latest NBM has warmed
temperatures several degrees Thu into Fri meaning not as much of a
cool down as previously mentioned but with the uncertainties this
could change again.

Heat returns quickly in the wake of this upper low as downslope
veered low level flow brings warmer low level air from the west into
the southern Plains. Temperatures warm into the 80s and lower 90s
Tuesday.

Wednesday still appears to be very warm to hot, at least across the
south where we approach record highs. Models are advertising a front
moving south across Oklahoma into north Texas during the day
Wednesday with north winds and some slightly cooler temperatures.
Although run to run consistency is lacking with regards to just how
strong this front will be. 06Z run of GFS had a much stronger
version than the latest 00Z run.

What cooldown does occur will be realized on Thursday with highs in
the 70s across much of the area with some low 80s along the Red
river. There is some indications of a shortwave traversing the area
at this time, which may end up bringing some rain with it to parts
of the area Wednesday night, but majority of the models keep this
frontal passage dry at this time. Will need to monitor trends for
the potential to introduce some rain chances as we get closer in
time.

This front quickly washes out with south winds returning by Friday
with very warm and dry conditions developing across the southern
Plains as we go into the following weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1025 AM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024

VFR ceilings expected this TAF period. Mid and high clouds will
continue over parts of the fa with lower VFR ceilings possible in
parts of western OK this afternoon. Winds will generally be from
the S and SE this TAF period. Currently, any rain is expected to
remain west of the TAF sites. However, will continue to monitor
because there is an outside chance a light rain shower might
affect a TAF site with the highest chance being KWWR.
Coverage/Chances are too low for mention in TAF though.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  48  78  50  80 /   0   0   0  10
Hobart OK         48  81  53  84 /   0   0   0  30
Wichita Falls TX  48  82  52  86 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           48  79  53  79 /   0   0  30  70
Ponca City OK     45  80  48  81 /   0   0   0  40
Durant OK         47  81  48  82 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...25
SHORT TERM...25
LONG TERM....30/25
AVIATION...25