710
FXUS64 KOUN 071050
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
450 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 447 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

 - A Dense Fog Advisory continues until 6 AM this morning.
   Visibility reductions may cause hazardous travel conditions.

 - Cooler day on Sunday behind a front before dry and seasonable
   weather into the middle of this week.

 - Another cold front Thursday may bring a return to chilly
   below- normal temperatures heading into next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Sunday)
Issued at 1236 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

Another day, another morning of fog. Areas of fog, some dense,
have developed yesterday evening across much of central and
southern Oklahoma and into western north Texas. A surface low is
moving east across north Texas and has brought a north wind to
southern Oklahoma and into western north Texas. However, the true
front with the drier and colder air is moving into northwest
Oklahoma and will push south through the entire area by later
this morning. This front will clear out any low clouds and fog in
its path. Some patchy fog, potentially dense, and low clouds may
linger a few hours past sunrise across southeast Oklahoma before
the dry air finally fills in. Post-frontal north winds may pick
up this morning and into the afternoon hours with gusts up to 20
to 25 mph possible. As the surface high sinks southward today, a
cooler post-frontal airmass will keep high temperatures from
rising generally above the 40s to mid 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday night through Tuesday night)
Issued at 1236 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

Light winds and mostly clear skies will give way to radiational
cooling Sunday night and temperatures plummeting into the 20s.
There is a small potential for some low clouds to develop Sunday
night across eastern Oklahoma and creep westward into central
Oklahoma before clearing through Monday morning. In the wake of the
previous shortwave and cold front, northwesterly flow will persist
aloft but surface flow will return to the south. Thus, warm air
advection will return to the forecast area with highs warming back
to normal in the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 1236 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

The extended forecast continues to be dry with persistent
northwesterly flow aloft and embedded shortwaves with rounds of cool
Canadian air digging into the CONUS. Tuesday through Thursday will
feature above seasonable temperatures. A shortwave with a strong jet
to our north will bring a front through Tuesday night into Wednesday
morning across the forecast area with much of the colder air keeping
to the north. Another shortwave will bring a front through Thursday,
but this time a strong jet streak of 150 knots up to 250mb will give
way to deep cold air pushed southward into much of the eastern half
of the CONUS by the weekend. Temperatures Friday could be nearly 20
degrees colder than Thursday and persist through the weekend.
Ensemble guidance continues to show a large spread in temperatures
for Friday from the mid 30s to lower 50s. Cluster analysis reveals
about 50 percent of the models lie near the 50th percentile of the
NBM (current forecast). Meanwhile, the other 50 percent is split
with one cluster having a strong warm signal with temperatures
leaning closer to the 90th percentile of NBM, while the other
cluster is slightly cooler and leaning towards the 25th percentile
of the NBM. With still a wide variation of outcomes with the
ensembles, a lot is likely to change given Friday is still five days
out. Trends will continue to be monitored for a unified solution.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 447 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

LIFR/IFR ceilings/visibility will continue to gradually improve
from NW to SE across the area as a cold front and drier air moves
across the area. MVFR ceilings in KS is expected to move into
parts of N and maybe central OK this morning. Otherwise, VFR
conditions expected. Breezy northerly winds are expected behind
the front. Wind speeds will decrease later today into tonight as
sfc ridge builds into the region.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  42  25  51  34 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK         50  23  54  30 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  53  26  55  34 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           46  24  56  29 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     39  23  49  30 /   0   0   0   0
Durant OK         49  29  52  34 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Dense Fog Advisory until 6 AM CST early this morning for OKZ032-
     039>048-050>052.

TX...Dense Fog Advisory until 6 AM CST early this morning for TXZ086-
     088>090.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...23
SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...25