022
FXUS64 KOUN 090452
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1052 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1042 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025

 - Cooler today before unseasonably warm temperatures Tuesday
   through much of the upcoming week.

 - No chance for precipitation through at least Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1142 AM CST Mon Dec 8 2025

After a cold, cloudy and locally foggy start, seasonable early-
December weather is expected this afternoon. A stagnant area of
stratus across the eastern two-thirds of Oklahoma is quickly
eroding late this morning. Afternoon and early evening
temperatures will be strongly moderated by the longevity of cloud
cover, with mid to upper-50s west and southwest giving way to
upper-40s across central and eastern Oklahoma.

Not quite as cold overnight tonight, with slightly stronger
southwesterly surface winds and potential for passing areas of
mid/high clouds. Patchy fog will again be possible towards daybreak
Tuesday across portions of western Oklahoma.

Ungar

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 1142 AM CST Mon Dec 8 2025

Persistent northwesterly upper flow remains over the central CONUS
into the midweek, with a strong embedded system moving across the
Dakotas on Tuesday. Increasing southwesterly surface winds (owing to
a more pronounced surface pressure gradient), advection of a warmer
low-level airmass and mostly clear skies will allow for a warmer day
areawide on Tuesday. A few locations across far western Oklahoma and
western-north Texas will approach 70 degrees by the mid-afternoon.

The aforementioned northern stream system will push a trailing
surface front across the area from Tuesday evening into Wednesday
morning. Given the trajectory of the parent system (well to our
north & east), the pocket of coldest post-frontal air will angle
towards the Ohio Valley. Therefore, greatest sensible impact with
this feature looks to be a southwest-to-north/northeasterly wind
shift on Wednesday morning, with potential for a few morning time
gusts up to 25-30 mph. Afternoon conditions will likely run a few
degrees cooler than Tuesday, though look to remain at or slightly
above normal for December 10th.

Ungar

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 1238 AM CST Mon Dec 8 2025

Heading into the latter half of the week and into the weekend, the
pattern aloft continues to feature northwesterly flow aloft with a
strong jet digging into the Plains. There is decent confidence of
this cold front at the end of the week bringing cold air by the
weekend. However, the latest ensemble guidance indicates delay in
the timing of the coldest airmass. Grand ensemble temperature
spreads of the 25th vs 75th percentiles (upper quartile and lower
quartile) have narrowed with the most recent 12/8 00z model run and
generally have the coldest air not pushing into Oklahoma until
Saturday and nearly 5 degree spreads both Friday and Saturday (lower
to mid 50s and upper 30s to lower 40s, respectively). Cluster
analysis reveals nearly 80 percent of the models agree with this
delayed solution of the colder air, while 20 percent of the members
continues to dig cold air into the forecast area by Friday. The
extended forecast continues to remain dry with no precipitation
chances with these fronts.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1042 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025

All terminals are most likely to remain in a VFR category through
most the entire forecast. However, there remains a low chance for
radiational fog developing between 11-15Z which could impact all
terminals except for KWWR & KSWO. Visibilities may slightly reduce
in the patchy fog bringing some of our terminals to an MVFR
category during that period. Confidence is very low but not
completely out that the fog could become more dense reducing
visibilities further in that time period. Surface winds will
increase out of the south after 18Z around 10 kts with gusts up to
20 kts by 21Z. Surface winds will gradually veer more south-
southwesterly after 01Z as a cold front will be near northwest
Oklahoma by the end of this forecast period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  33  62  41  56 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK         29  64  36  59 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  33  68  39  63 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           29  68  37  57 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     29  62  40  56 /   0   0   0   0
Durant OK         33  63  42  63 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...09
SHORT TERM...09
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...68