097
FXUS64 KOUN 040602
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
102 AM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 100 AM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

- Thunderstorms with locally heavy rainfall remain possible Friday.

- Rain/thunderstorm chances continue through the long term period.

- Hot and humid conditions return next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 100 AM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

Scattered showers and storms are expected again today as an upper
shortwave continues moves over an extremely moist airmass. Severe
weather is not expected, but slow moving storms could lead to some
localized flooding. Abundant cloud cover will keep temperatures on
the cool side (highs in the low to mid 80s), but humidity will
remain high with dewpoints in the 70s. Rain chances diminish in the
late afternoon to early evening to around 5-10% across most of the
area. After midnight tonight, a few CAMs bring back a few isolated
showers and/or a storm complex making a run for northwest Oklahoma
before dissipating.

Day

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Sunday night)
Issued at 100 AM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

Saturday, the shortwave begins to depart, but some lingering rain
chances remain through the day. Skies begin mostly cloudy with
perhaps some breaks opening up toward evening. Temperatures start to
gradually rebound with highs in the upper 80s expected.

There is some signal in the CAMs for a storm complex off the high
plains to make a run for northern Oklahoma Saturday night.

With the extremely moist airmass still in place, Sunday looks much
like Saturday giving us low rain chances, lots of clouds, and
temperatures at or just below normal.

Day

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 100 AM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

The ridge builds over Arizona / New Mexico, putting us into a
northwest flow regime. With nothing to clear the moisture out, this
will keep low chance PoPs in the forecast through most of next week,
including chances for overnight storms. Temperatures gradually
increase into the mid to upper 90s by midweek. Heat indices will
approach 105 degrees across parts of southern Oklahoma (especially
southeast) and north Texas by midweek.

Day

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1035 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

Showers look to remain confined to southwest Oklahoma and north
Texas through much of the night before spreading farther north
Friday morning. Most sites will have a chance for showers and
afternoon storms, with highest chances across north Texas into
southwest/west central Oklahoma. Mainly VFR conditions to start
the forecast with a period of MVFR ceilings tomorrow morning
before some improving conditions outside of precip. Light
south/southeast winds overnight will increase Friday morning with
gusts of 20-25kts likely by late morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  84  71  86  71 /  30  10  20  20
Hobart OK         84  70  88  70 /  50  10  20  10
Wichita Falls TX  82  71  88  72 /  70  10  20  10
Gage OK           84  68  89  69 /  30  20  10  10
Ponca City OK     86  71  88  70 /  30  20  30  30
Durant OK         87  73  91  73 /  50  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...14
SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...30