669
FXUS64 KOUN 160801
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
301 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 259 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026

- Slight chance of isolated storms with gusty winds this afternoon
  and evening.

- Heat wave and elevated fire danger persists through at least
  Saturday.

- A cold front arrives this weekend, bringing medium-high rain
  chances and cooler temperatures by early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Wednesday)
Issued at 259 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026

As of the current time, the storm outflow has pushed the quasi-
stationary front to near Erick - Watonga - Stillwater. Winds behind
the front are light with cool temperatures (60s/70s), but humid
conditions. Localized fog is possible across northwest Oklahoma
towards dawn as dewpoint depressions approach 0 deg, with visibility
of 1 to 3 miles possible in very localized areas.

Recent short-term model guidance suggests the front will be
relatively slow to lift northward today. As a result light north
winds are expected to shift south by mid-day or so, with high
temperatures across parts of northern and western Oklahoma in the
mid- to upper-90`s. Elsewhere, near-record heat continues today with
temperatures near and above the century mark. With the highest heat
indices near 105 degrees expected over southeastern Oklahoma, a Heat
Advisory remains in effect.

We added low POPs from southwest to west-central to north-central
Oklahoma for this afternoon/evening as air parcels reach convective
temperatures within a corridor of low-level baroclinicity near the
departing front. Should isolated convective updrafts mature, there
is the potential for strong downburst wind gusts to 55 mph. This
could have negative impacts to any wildfires in the area. Elevated
fire danger is expected today for areas near and south of I-40 and
west of I-35 due to very dry vegetation.

Thompson

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday night through Friday night)
Issued at 259 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026

Near-record heat continues through Friday, with mainly dry
conditions expected. There is a 10 percent chance of isolated
showers/storms on Thursday afternoon for southeastern Oklahoma.
Southerly winds will begin increasing across northwest Oklahoma on
Friday as the lee-trough reorganizes with the approach of a southern
stream shortwave from the desert southwest.

Thompson

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 259 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026

The upper ridge, stubbornly remains centered near the ArkLaTex
region on Saturday as a strong northern stream wave approaches the
northern Rockies and a shortwave approaches from the desert
southwest. This will facilitate a southward progression of a cold
front into Kansas on Saturday. This pattern will allow hot
conditions to persist on Saturday, with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms returning to north/west Oklahoma by afternoon.
Rain/storm chances increase Saturday night (mainly over northern and
western Oklahoma) with low chances expanding towards the I-44
corridor.

Sunday marks the first day of the upcoming pattern change. Latest
NBM guidance has the cold front reaching northwest Oklahoma on
Sunday morning and the ECMWF/GFS suggest the boundary stalls
somewhere over northern Oklahoma. Weak CAA, increased cloudiness,
and rain/storms will provide for less hot temperatures for most
areas compared to recent days. Forecast highs range from the upper
80`s (northern OK) to near 100 degrees (southern OK and north TX).
Model consensus is improving for these temperatures on Sunday, as
shown by the shrinking boxplot with the 25-75th percentile range
(reasonable expected high temperatures) having decreased from about
10 degrees (i.e., a much wider range) the past several runs to about
5 degrees difference. Unfortunately, the scale has tipped more in
favor of warmer temperatures than cooler for Sunday.

Then, a reinforcing front brings enhanced CAA late Sunday and the
surface front pushes through central Oklahoma on Sunday night.
Widespread rain/storms are likely as the boundary progresses
southward. Shower and storms are possible during the day on Sunday,
especially over north-central Oklahoma near the front.
Rain chances continue into Monday and diminish from north to south
during the day, with high temperatures in the 80`s/90`s forecast
both Monday and Tuesday. There remains large differences in
temperatures among ensemble members for next week.

Thompson

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1037 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

Prevailing VFR conditions are forecast during the upcoming
period. The exception will be after ~09-10Z into the mid-morning
hours on Wednesday across northwestern Oklahoma (KWWR), when MVFR
stratus is expected to emerge. Otherwise, scattered high ceilings
and eventually patchy diurnal cumulus are expected into Wednesday
afternoon/evening.

A consolidated outflow boundary continues to move southeastward
across north-central Oklahoma late this evening. This feature will
offer shifted/changing wind direction overnight at
KPNC/KSWO/KCSM, with a predominate south-southwesterly wind
direction expected across the region by no later than midday
Wednesday.

Safe travels!

Ungar

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 100  76  98  75 /  20  10  10   0
Hobart OK        101  75 100  75 /  20   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX 102  75 101  74 /  10   0   0   0
Gage OK           95  71  98  72 /  10   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     98  74  97  73 /  20  10   0   0
Durant OK        101  76 101  75 /  10   0  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for
     OKZ032-042-043-046>048-050>052.

TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...01
SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...09