440
FXUS64 KOUN 151144
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
644 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 630 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

- Near-record heat, elevated fire danger, and severe storms are
  expected today.

- Above-average heat continues through end of the week.

- Strong cold front arrives this weekend, bringing medium-high
  rain chances and cooler temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Tuesday)
Issued at 308 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

Another hot and breezy day is in store today as a lee-surface low
exits Colorado ahead of an approaching cold front. High temperatures
at all three climate sites will be near record high temperatures for
today`s date. With the pressure gradient contracts with the approach
of these features, expect sustained SSW winds at 15 to 20 mph with
gusts of 30 to 35 mph across western Oklahoma and 25 to 30 mph across
portions of northern and central Oklahoma. Compressional heating ahead
of the approaching front will lead to very hot conditions, and the
Heat Advisory has been expanded to include north-central Oklahoma.

Dynamic lift from shortwaves (propagating northeastward along the
periphery of the upper ridge), along with mechanical lift associated
with frontogenetical forcing, will be sufficient to for the development
of strong to severe thunderstorm development by mid- to- late afternoon
from the panhandles, northwest Oklahoma and into Kansas. With storm
cloud bases estimated at 8k to 10kft (and near dry-adiabatic low-level
lapse rates), wind gusts of 65 to 70 mph are possible. The threat of
large hail has decreased given the decrease in modeled wind shear.
However, we cannot rule out isolated hail up to the size of quarters.

Therefore, the dominant hazards with storm activity appears to be dry
microbursts and dry lightning. We will have to watch for potential
lightning-induced fire starts, given the volatile state of fuels over
portions of northwest Oklahoma.

Thompson

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday night through Thursday night)
Issued at 308 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

Storm outflow may nudge the effective front over northern Oklahoma on
Tuesday night, and low shower/storm chances linger across northwest
and northern Oklahoma tonight due to WAA and nocturnal LLJ. Low
temperatures on Tuesday night could range form the mid-60`s (northwest
OK) to near 80 deg.

The remnant boundary/front lifts northward out of our area, with continued
hot and dry conditions on Wednesday and Thursday. The anomalous ridge
retrogrades towards the southern plains over the course of the short
term period, which provides continued return flow across the area.

Thompson

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 308 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

The center of the ridge is prog`d to slow/stall in the vicinity of ArkLaTex
by Friday as a strong trough departs the Pacific northwest for the northern
plains. This upper trough pushes a cold front southward across the plains
and is forecast to arrive into at least northern Oklahoma by Saturday
evening. Showers and thunderstorms chances have trended higher for late
Saturday into Sunday morning, with beneficial and widespread rainfall
possible. With moderate instability ahead of the front, strong to severe
storms are possible Saturday afternoon and evening. The latest NBM
run has high temperatures in the low 80`s on Sunday and upper 70`s
on Monday for areas near and north of the I-40 corridor. Southeastern
Oklahoma will be the last to benefit from the cooler airmass and is
forecast to have max temperatures finally below 90 degrees on Monday.
Rain chances linger on Sunday and depart our area by Monday morning.

Thompson

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 645 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

VFR conditions are expected through at least mid-afternoon at all
terminals.

Southerly winds will veer slightly and become gusty later this
morning. These winds will weaken after sunset this evening. A cold
front will approach northwest Oklahoma and briefly shift the winds
at a few terminals (KWWR, KCSM, and KPNC) to the north.

Few to scattered cumulus clouds are expected with daytime heating
(~6000 to 9000 ft AGL). Showers and thunderstorms are possible
across northwest Oklahoma (KWWR) in association with the cold
front this afternoon into the evening. Strong wind gusts and brief
reductions in visibility with the most intense storms.

Mahale

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 308 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

Near record heat is expected today with minimum relative humidity of
25 to 35 percent across the entire area. Winds are not forecast to
be quite as breezy as yesterday. Across western Oklahoma, expect SSW
winds at 15 to 20 mph, gusting to 35 mph with gusts to 30 mph over
northern and central Oklahoma and 25 mph gusts over western north
Texas. While fire weather conditions are considered low according
to the classic paradigm, total fire environment will lead to elevated
fire danger today due to the volatile state of fuels. A Fire Danger
Statement has been issued for western, central, and southeastern
Oklahoma and western north Texas.

Thompson

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 100  76  98  75 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK        101  76  99  75 /   0  10   0   0
Wichita Falls TX 103  76 101  74 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           98  65  95  72 /  60  90  10   0
Ponca City OK     99  72  97  73 /  10  20   0   0
Durant OK        102  76  99  75 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for
     OKZ005>008-011>013-018>020-026-031-032-043-047-048-051-052.

TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...01
SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...10