056
FXUS64 KOUN 200351
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1051 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1049 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025

 - Scattered showers/storms this afternoon through the overnight.
   Isolated strong/severe storms could produce strong and damaging
   winds.

 - Not as hot Wednesday, but high humidity keeps heat index values
   high enough for another Heat Advisory in southeast Oklahoma.

 - Less hot and dry for the latter half of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 1253 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025

Thunderstorms have begun developing across southeastern Oklahoma,
and there has been some persistent cloud development across
portions of northwest Oklahoma which could lead to additional
development this afternoon. As we have seen in recent days, these
thunderstorms will generally be diurnal and coverage not too
widespread, but isolated storms will become strong and
potentially severe with the potential of strong and damaging
winds.

Although these thunderstorms are expected to generally dissipate
this evening, a number of models show redevelopment of showers and
storms before sunrise near and ahead of a cold front that will be
moving through the area overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday through Thursday night)
Issued at 1253 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025

The cold front that moves into Oklahoma tonight will continue to
move south and brings a not-as-hot airmass into the area. But high
dewpoints will be slow to clear out behind the front across the
eastern half of Oklahoma, so forecast heat index values will
still be near advisory criteria in southeastern Oklahoma. A Heat
Advisory will again be in place in the southeast Wednesday.

With the front moving south through Oklahoma and into Texas
tomorrow, the primary area of potential shower and thunderstorm
development will shift south Wednesday as well. Some storm
potential may linger into early Wednesday afternoon before ending
over the area.

We finally get more widespread lower dewpoints filtering in
Wednesday night and Thursday and may be sufficient to keep heat
index values below advisory criteria areawide on Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025

The late week pattern looks dry and "less hot" (highs in the low to
mid 90s). Synoptically, we will be positioned between a ridge over
the four corners region and trough to our southeast. Rain chances
return this weekend across northern Oklahoma as another front looks
to approach the area and the upper ridge starts to retreat farther.

Day

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1049 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025

Showers and storms continue to decrease in coverage but will
linger across southern Oklahoma and into north Texas through the
early morning hours. Additional storms are possible Wednesday
afternoon, but low chances (10-20%) preclude mention at this time.
Otherwise, light north to northeast winds are expected through the
period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  97  73  93  71 /  30  30  20  10
Hobart OK        100  71  96  71 /  30  30  30  10
Wichita Falls TX  99  74  95  72 /  30  30  30  10
Gage OK           96  68  94  68 /  20  20  20  10
Ponca City OK     98  71  93  70 /  20  20  10   0
Durant OK        101  75  95  73 /  20  20  30  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Wednesday for OKZ032-043-047-
     048-050>052.

TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...08