349
FXUS64 KOUN 201826
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
126 PM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 125 PM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

- Dangerous heat expected through the week and the upcoming
  weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 125 PM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

Hot and humid conditions are expected this afternoon with
temperatures forecast to climb into the upper 90s to around 100.
This heat along with humid conditions will likely lead to triple
digit heat index values across most, if not all, of the fa with heat
index values of 105+ possible in some locations, generally in the
eastern third to half of the fa. With these heat index values still
expected, will maintain the current heat advisory which is in effect
until 8 pm this evening.

Warm night expected tonight with temperatures forecast to only fall
into the mid/upper 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 125 PM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

Upper ridge is expected to continue to build into the region with
the center of the upper high near or moving into the southern Plains
Tuesday and Wednesday. At the sfc, southwest to westerly winds are
expected Tuesday ahead of a frontal boundary that is expected to
approach and move into parts of the area Tuesday into Wednesday.
These factors along with a thermal ridge ahead of the front ("pre-
frontal torching") will lead to even hotter conditions Tuesday.
Triple digit highs are expected across most of the fa Tuesday
afternoon with heat index values of 105+ across most of the area as
well. Some locations, mainly in eastern parts of the fa where
dewpoints are generally higher, could see heat index values of 110-
114. The forecast temperatures and heat index values are some of the
hottest of the year so far for many locations. With all this in
mind, have issued an Excessive Heat Warning for eastern parts of the
fa, including the OKC metro, with a Heat Advisory across the rest of
the area.

The previously mentioned frontal boundary is expected to lead to
temperatures that are a few degrees cooler (highs low 90s to low
100s) on Wednesday, especially in north central OK but still remain
hot. A heat advisory will probably be needed for Wednesday as well
but some uncertainty of exactly where due to uncertainty of where
the boundary will end up.

The forecast remains dry for Tuesday and Wednesday, which is typical
with this weather pattern, but can not completely rule out a few
isolated pop-up showers developing in the afternoon (a few CAMs
hinting at this), especially with a boundary in the area. However,
any rain chances are very low right now and most of the area will
likely not see a drop of rain.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 126 AM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

Another hot day across the area on Thursday. However both the GFS
and Euro are now showing a stronger wave moving through the Plains
on Thursday night and Friday. The GFS being the stronger of the two
models, which might suppress the ridge sufficiently for a front to
move into the area along with perhaps some precip chances Friday
into Saturday. The Euro is more reserved and keeps the precip to our
north and east, so we will not get overly excited about this
prospect yet, but it is something to watch. The latest NBM is
introducing some low pops for late Friday. However, the better bet
is for a few degrees of cooling, otherwise, the heat will continue
through the end of the week and the upcoming weekend.

I guess one thing to watch is the gulf as a possible tropical system
takes shape over the next couple of days. Currently is does not
appear that this system will have any direct impact on Oklahoma or
north Texas as the upper high keeps the system well to our south
across south Texas into northern Mexico.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1212 PM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

VFR conditions and generally light south to southwest winds will
continue through most of the TAF period. Toward tomorrow morning,
expect winds to veer more toward westerly.

Day

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  77 105  78  99 /   0  10  10   0
Hobart OK         76 105  77 102 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  76 105  77 103 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           75 104  74 100 /   0  10  10   0
Ponca City OK     78 103  75  92 /   0  10  10   0
Durant OK         78 103  80 101 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for OKZ004-005-009-
     010-014>017-021>023-027-028-033>041-044>047-050-051.

     Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ005>008-011>013-
     017>020-024>026-028>032-039>043-045>048-050>052.

     Extreme Heat Warning from noon to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for
     OKZ006>008-011>013-018>020-024>026-029>032-042-043-048-052.

TX...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...25
SHORT TERM...25
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...14