692
FXUS64 KOUN 181148
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
548 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1200 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

  - Near record heat Tuesday southern Oklahoma and western north
    Texas.

  - Thunderstorms and heavy rainfall possible late Wednesday into
    Thursday. A few strong to severe storms possible late
    Wednesday afternoon and night.

  - Rain chances increase again late Sunday into Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Tuesday)
Issued at 1200 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

Near-surface moisture is still rather high across south central and
southeast Oklahoma late this evening with dewpoint temperatures
generally in the mid 60s.  Surface and low-level winds are expected
to veer overnight which will keep the moisture shallow and limit
fog chances in southern Oklahoma.  However, some low clouds may
develop with perhaps better chances to our east.

A weak cold front will move across the state today (sound
familiar) with weak cold air advection reaching the northern half
of Oklahoma by peak heating. Farther south, near record
temperatures are possible. The northern half of Oklahoma will
still see afternoon highs in the lower to mid 70s.

Record high temperatures for Tuesday, November 18th
OKC               80
Wichita Falls     87
Lawton            82

The front/wind shift is expected to stall across the far northern
Texas Tuesday evening and night.  Overnight Tuesday, modest southwest
winds around 850 mb will advect moisture northward into western north
Texas and southern Oklahoma.  At this time, it appear very warm 850
temperatures will prevent elevated convection, but the NAM is close.
With a rather sharp surface dewpoint gradient, and light winds,
there is an outside chance of fog developing before sunrise
Wednesday. If this occurs it will likely be south of our Texas and
southern Oklahoma counties.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday night through Thursday night)
Issued at 1200 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

Higher theta-e air will lift northward as a warm front pushes into
southern Oklahoma on Wednesday.  With the upper low rather far to
the west, it appears most of the area will remain capped for
boundary layer storms through at least late Wednesday afternoon.
As moisture continues to increase and deepen Wednesday, and the
capping inversion height increases, some shallow convective
showers will become more likely. This should occur mainly across
southern Oklahoma and northern Texas. The HRRR does indicate more
robust convection across western north Texas by early evening, but
other CAMs have stronger convection farther south.

As the upper trough/low moves east Wednesday night into Thursday,
the low-level flow will increase.  This may initially focus
storms across western north Texas and southwest Oklahoma, but these
winds will broaden and shift east and north with time. This will
result in widespread showers and thunderstorms, especially late
Wednesday into Thursday afternoon/evening. Instability will be
sufficient for a few strong storms late Wednesday
afternoon/evening, but with time storms will be mainly elevated
with weaker instability. Locally heavy rainfall still appears
likely with perhaps better chances across the southern half of
Oklahoma. Thursday night into early Friday, a better frontal
structure may develop across northern Oklahoma and southern
Kansas. This may focus higher rainfall rates across this area with
some drying across southwest Oklahoma and western north Texas.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 1200 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

Guidance has been rather consistent in tracking an upper low from
the Texas Panhandle into southeastern Kansas on Friday. As this
occurs, a Pacific cold front will usher in drier air with a
trailing continental front entering northwest Oklahoma by late
morning. As the second boundary pushes southeast, gusty northwest
winds will develop behind the boundary along with a cooler air
mass. Some light showers will linger across northern Oklahoma
Friday morning, but overall most areas will be dry on Friday.

Another system developing over southern California will bring our
next chance of rain, perhaps as early as Sunday/Sunday night.  There
is a decent spread in ensemble guidance with this system, especially
timing. There is a better consensus for a decent chance of
rain/storms late Sunday into Monday with drier weather by Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 548 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

Stratus with MVFR ceilings across southeast Oklahoma and northeast
Texas is currently expected to remain south and east of KDUA,
although a brief period of stratus can not be completely ruled
out. Otherwise VFR conditions are expected. Winds will shift to
westerly/southwesterly this morning, then a cold front will move
from north to south across the area shifting winds to north/
northwesterly.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  74  50  75  60 /   0   0  20  60
Hobart OK         78  49  76  57 /   0   0  30  50
Wichita Falls TX  83  54  81  62 /   0   0  40  70
Gage OK           71  42  72  50 /   0   0  10  20
Ponca City OK     73  45  71  56 /   0   0  10  60
Durant OK         86  59  82  64 /   0   0  20  70

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...06
SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...26