329
FXUS64 KOUN 171058
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
558 AM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 532 AM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

- Thunderstorm chances this morning west and north, and again this
  afternoon/evening near and north of the cold front.

- Some temporary relief to the heat in the north today... but only
  temporary.

- Dangerous heat continues in the south today, and throughout the
  area through the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Monday)
Issued at 222 AM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

The cold front has settled to the south and the wind shift is
located from near McAlester to Ada to Lawton to Hollis. It is not
expected to move significantly today. Cooler weather is expected
across the north today, although from a heat index perspective it
will be somewhat offset by an increase in dewpoints and humidity
in the easterly/northeasterly surface winds. But the cooling is
enough to keep expected heat index values below 100 across
northern Oklahoma, and the below heat advisory criteria of 105 for
most of central and west central Oklahoma. But there is no relief
in the south where afternoon maximum heat index values will again
reach 105 to 110, and a heat advisory has been issued for these
areas of southern Oklahoma and north Texas.

Convection has increased this morning across northwestern
Oklahoma. These showers and thunderstorms will persist early this
morning before moving northeast out of the area. There are two
camps of models for redevelopment this afternoon with many of the
CAMs only developing very isolated convection, while the synoptic
models and the WRF-FV3 are more aggressive. So while there is
still some question, believe that the probability of precipitation
is likely greater than the NBM initialization, and have included
higher POPs than the NBM again for today, especially across
central Oklahoma.

As was the case yesterday, forecast model soundings show an
inverted-V configuration and downdraft CAPE in the 1200-1500 J/kg
range again. This (relatively) dry low-level environment will be
conducive to acceleration of thunderstorm downdrafts with the
potential of damaging downbursts. And as was the case yesterday,
there may not be too many strong thunderstorms develop, but those
that do get taller and stronger will be capable of producing
these damaging winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday night through Wednesday night)
Issued at 222 AM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

The thunderstorms that develop this afternoon will persist into at
least the early evening. Some of the synoptic models hold on to
QPF development through the late evening, but the signal for that
is more uncertain.

The pattern begins to shift through this period with the ridge
beginning to shift to the west and northwest flow aloft developing
across the central and northern Plains as a trough moves toward
the Great Lake region. Behind this northern trough, a front pushes
down into Kansas, but likely not far enough to bring us any
relief through Wednesday. But with the surface pressure pattern
adjusting to the front to the north, southwest surface winds will
develop allowing a warming downslope component to the winds, so
the heat returns areawide for Tuesday and Wednesday. Heat
Advisories will be needed again on these days.

Models show a slight potential of thunderstorms in northern
Oklahoma on Wednesday night with the potential of the front being
close to the Kansas-Oklahoma state line, but expect the bulk of
the precipitation to remain to the north in Kansas.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 222 AM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

The pattern shift we have been seeing in the model forecasts
continues to show some consistency in the latest model runs with
the upper ridge establishing itself more in the intermountain west
and northwest flow developing over the Central Plains between the
ridge and troughing expected in the Great Lakes/Mid-Mississippi
Valley. With this pattern, the potential increases of getting a
cold front to slide down from the Central Plains into the forecast
area. But the question will be, how much cooler will it be north
of the front given that the surface ridge and the best cold air
advection will be to the northeast of here pushing more toward the
Ohio Valley. NBM suggests highs may be in the mid-upper 90s in
northern Oklahoma on Thursday and Friday, which granted will be
some relief from the 104-110 highs we expect in the north on
Tuesday and Wednesday, but will still be warmer than average for
this time of year. Farther south the forecast reduction in high
temperatures will likely not be as significant.

Then, the ridge starts building back over the Southern Plains this
weekend and we are back to the areawide triple digit heat.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 532 AM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

Overnight storm system currently in northcentral Oklahoma which is
impacting terminals KPNC & KSWO should be exiting those terminals
around 13-14Z. Otherwise all terminals should remain in a VFR
category through the entire forecast period except for possibly
terminals KOKC & KOUN. There is a 30% probability of thunderstorms
initiating along a "summer" cold front stretched near the I-40
corridor which could impact terminals KOKC & KOUN between 21-03Z.
Although not expecting ceilings to be very low with this
convection but visibilities could briefly reduce in rain or heavy
rain as well as strong to severe gusty surface winds from the
storms outflow. Although surface winds generally out of the north
& northeast, an outflow boundary from early storms is currently
pushing through central Oklahoma which will be producing a gusty
northwest wind shift across terminals KOKC & KOUN perhaps through
14Z then may see those winds lighten and veer more northeast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  96  74 104  79 /  30  30   0   0
Hobart OK        102  74 107  78 /  20  20   0   0
Wichita Falls TX 106  77 107  80 /  10  10   0   0
Gage OK           95  69 105  75 /  20  10   0   0
Ponca City OK     93  72 104  78 /  30  10  10   0
Durant OK        105  77 106  80 /  20  20  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for OKZ032-036>048-050>052.

TX...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for TXZ085-086-088>090.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...68