032
FXUS64 KOUN 031729
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1229 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1214 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

- Strong/Severe thunderstorms remain possible the rest of the
  week.

- Shower and thunderstorm chances continue through late Saturday.

- Turning cold this weekend with freezing temperatures possible.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 221 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

Showers/storms have developed over the last couple of hours in parts
of west and north TX. This activity is expected to expand/spread
into the fa through the rest of the overnight into the morning
hours. Any storms will be elevated in nature but some could become
strong/severe in parts of western north TX and southern OK. The
extent of severe storms will be dependent on how far north the
better elevated instability is able to spread with some CAMs showing
this instability struggling to make it very far into the fa. Even if
enough instability for severe storms does not make it far enough
into the fa, some strong storms could still be possible with small
hail. If severe storms do occur, large hail will be the primary
concern although some gusty winds may also be possible.

The shower/storm chances are expected to diminish this afternoon
with a relative lull early this evening before the next round of
showers/storms begins late evening/overnight. WAA is expected to
develop again tonight with potentially another impulse moving
through the mid/upper flow. Widespread showers and some storms are
expected overnight into early Friday. Strong/severe storms will be
possible once again in parts of central and southern OK and western
north TX. Large hail will be the primary concern again.

With cloud cover and rain, temperatures are expected to be cool
(well below average) with highs in the upper 50s to low 60s.
Temperatures are expected to fall into the 40s and low/mid 50s
tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Saturday night)
Issued at 221 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

Widespread showers and some storms are expected to be ongoing Friday
morning. Rain chances will diminish a little Friday
afternoon/evening but not go away before the next round of rain is
expected to begin to move in. Some strong/severe storms could
develop again Friday afternoon/evening although that is a bit
dependent on what occurs previously.

The next and final round of precipitation will be Friday night into
Saturday night as the upper low expected to develop over the Desert
Southwest and N. Mexico begins to finally approach and move across
the Southern Plains.

After multiple rounds/days of rain, rainfall totals of 1 to 3+
inches are possible by Sunday across the SE half to two-thirds of
the fa with the highest totals expected in SE and south central OK.
The rain could be heavy at times. If multiple rounds of the heavy
rain occurs in the same area and/or training the heavy
showers/storms occurs, flooding will become an increasing concern,
especially if antecedent conditions become more saturated. There is
some uncertainties on whether all the factors will come together
properly that will hold off on issuing a Flood Watch but something
later shifts will need to look at especially with seeing the results
of the previous round of rain. If a watch is needed the most likely
time will be Fri night into Sat night although could be earlier
depending on what happens.

Models show colder air moving into the region Friday night into
Saturday. This will have two impacts. The first is the potential for
snow to mix with rain Saturday and Saturday night across portions of
western and northern OK before the precipitation ends by early
Sunday. No impacts are currently expected from the snow.

The other impact of the colder air will occur across the entire fa
and that is a cold/cool weekend. Temperatures are expected to be
well below average all weekend. Saturday highs are forecast to
range from the mid 40s in NW OK to the upper 50s in SE OK. These
temperatures are around 20 degrees F below average for this time
of year. The bigger impact from temperatures will be Saturday
night when temperatures are expected to fall into the mid 20s to
mid 30s across the fa. Current forecast has temperatures at or
below freezing across northern, wester, and parts of central OK,
and parts of western north TX.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 221 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

The upper low and associated trough will continue to move east
through the weekend with NW flow developing over the region by early
next week. With the pattern shift, the forecast remains dry Sunday
into the middle of next week.

The cool/cold temperatures are expected again Sunday with
temperatures remaining well below average. Highs on Sunday are
expected to reach the 50s across the fa. Another cold night,
although not as cold as Saturday night in some areas, is expected
Sunday night with lows in the 30s across the fa. Some locations will
once again drop to or just a bit below freezing.

Temperatures are expected to warm back into the 60s and 70s next
week with overnight lows in the 40s and 50s by the middle of next
week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1214 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

Stratus across the area will occasionally become MVFR through the
afternoon and evening, though confidence is not high enough to
mention at all TAF sites. Overnight, MVFR to IFR ceilings should
become more widespread and persistent. Showers and thunderstorms
will develop again across central and west Texas and spread
northeastward tomorrow morning.

Day

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  48  59  45  49 /  70 100  90  90
Hobart OK         45  62  41  49 /  80  80  90  90
Wichita Falls TX  48  63  47  53 /  90  90  90  80
Gage OK           42  60  33  45 /  70  80  80  80
Ponca City OK     47  60  42  50 /  60  90  70  80
Durant OK         54  66  52  59 /  80 100 100  90

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...25
SHORT TERM...25
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...14