944
FXUS64 KOUN 131832
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
132 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 132 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

- Hot and humid conditions through at least midweek.

- Elevated fire weather conditions Monday afternoon across the
  west.

- Chance of showers and thunderstorms across northwestern Oklahoma
  Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night. But no significant relief
  from the drought for most areas.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 132 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

The cold front that slid into northern Oklahoma has kept
temperatures across the north a little lower than the last few
days. The Heat Advisory may not pan out across northern Oklahoma,
but there is sun and some time to warm temperatures, so will let
the advisory ride for now.

The convection across western Oklahoma has dissipated, although a
few small showers have recently developed in Woods County. The
GFS and to some extent the HRW-FV3 show the potential of
precipitation developing late this afternoon/early this evening
across northwest Oklahoma along the surface front, but most models
keep things dry this evening. Have added some 10 percent POPs
across the northwest for this evening, but do not see enough
signal to introduce mentionable POPs after 00Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 132 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

The upper ridge shifts eastward tomorrow. With slightly lower
heights/thicknesses, temperatures will be slightly lower tomorrow
across much of the area. This will not be a significant cooling by
any means, but may be enough to keep much of the area below heat
advisory criteria on Monday. Southeastern Oklahoma remains closer
to the upper ridge axis and will still be quite hot, so a heat
advisory has been issued for this area again on Monday. There is
certainly the potential that the Heat Advisory may need to be
expanded across a wider area.

Winds increase across western Oklahoma Monday as a surface low
develops across southeastern Oklahoma increasing the pressure
gradient across the area. Minimum afternoon humidity in the west is
expected to generally remain above 20 percent, but the increasing
wind does push fire weather into the elevated level during the
afternoon. The forecast weather conditions give some areas of near-
critical fire weather in northwest Oklahoma, but this corresponds to
areas that have had some recent precipitation, so mentioning elevated
conditions in the fire weather forecasts still seems reasonable.

With the upper ridge shifted east, increasing southwest flow
aloft will develop over the southern Rockies and into the southern
and central High Plains. The High Plains convection on
Monday/Monday Night is forecast to dissipate before reaching the
forecast area, but convection on Tuesday/Tuesday night is expected
to make more of a run toward northwestern Oklahoma Tuesday night
as well as potential shower/storm development along a cold front
moving south down the central High Plains and Kansas into
northwest Oklahoma. NBM POPs are quite aggressive with POPs late
Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday evening. The current NAM actually
does not bring QPF into the forecast area Tuesday/Tuesday night.
Will keep chances relatively high across the northwest with the
front expected to be in the vicinity, but will decrease POPs from
the 80% that NBM put in far northwest Oklahoma given the NAM
signal.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 205 AM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

Above-normal temperatures will likely continue through at least
Thursday as bias-corrected probabilistic guidance indicates little
temperature spread with even the 10th percentile above-normal
through that period. High temperatures will range from the mid
90s to the low 100s deg F.

Ensemble spread increases among the global models by late in the
week into next weekend (September 18-20), which indicates the
potential for a pattern change. There is a chance the subtropical
ridge will break down as a mid-level trough digs across the
Plains. This would drive a cold front southward into the Southern
Plains. There is a 30 to 70% chance of high temperatures below 90
deg F by Saturday (30% southeast; 70% north). The coldest end of
guidance indicates a low to medium chance (5% southeast; 50%
north) of high temperatures below 80 deg F. These probabilities
increase by 10 to 20% by Sunday (i.e., the chance of cooler
weather increases later in the weekend).

Mahale

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

All of our terminals should remain in a VFR category throughout
the forecast period. A surface low lee of the Colorado Rockies
will keep surface winds out of the south at 10-15 kts gusting up
to 20 kts across our terminals. After 00Z surface winds should
back slightly southeasterly at 5-10 kts. A low-level jet will
increase out of the south by 06Z although not strong enough for
low-level wind shear into any of the terminals at this time but
mentionable in the discussion. By 15Z surface winds will veer
south-southwesterly at 10-15 kts gusting 20-25 kts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  77  98  77  98 /   0  10   0   0
Hobart OK         78 100  78 100 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  78 102  77 102 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           76 100  77  99 /  10   0   0  50
Ponca City OK     74  97  76  97 /   0   0   0  10
Durant OK         76 102  76 102 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ004>048-050>052.

     Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM CDT Monday for OKZ032-043-047-
     048-051-052.

TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...68