048
FXUS64 KOUN 232312
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
612 PM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 610 PM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025

 - Low probability of a strong storm or two over northern Oklahoma
   Saturday afternoon.

 - Widespread, heavy rainfall increasingly likely early this week
   with another round of potentially heavy rainfall late in the
   week.

 - Cooler weather arrives Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025

Weak front continues to move south through southern Oklahoma
southward into north Texas this afternoon. A few showers and
isolated thunderstorms will be possible to the north of the front
through the afternoon hours. A few strong storms appear possible as
deep layer shear strengthens and some instability develops across
northern Oklahoma, behind the front. Strong wind gusts would be the
main hazard along with the lightning.

Another hot, but seasonal day expected today with highs in the low
to middle 90s and afternoon heat indices near 100.

Much of the afternoon convective activity is expected to dissipate
around sunset with a dry evening on tap. However upslope flow behind
the front will aid in generating convection across the High Plains.
Most of the models develop this convection in Colorado later today
and then move it east into Kansas. However, some other models
develop it further south across northeast New Mexico and the
panhandles. Either way, much of the precip, at least through much of
the overnight period is expected to remain to our north or west.
Although both the above solutions do bring a chance late tonight
into portions of western or northern Oklahoma, so will maintain some
low pops for this possibility.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday night)
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025

Some residual convection does appear to survive through the night,
again best chance looks to be the activity across Kansas, which then
develops southward into northern Oklahoma Sunday morning. Some
questions remain as to how far south and east this activity will
progress during the day Sunday, but not out of the question to get
some activity into the I-40 corridor of central Oklahoma. Although
mid level flow will strengthen which will help increase deep layer
shear, only weak instability is currently expected to develop across
the area on Sunday, keeping severe potential to a minimum.

In addition, in the wake of the initial front, cloud cover and
possible precip will begin to impact temperatures as highs will
range from the middle 80s across the north and mainly low 90s in the
south.

A stronger, reinforcing cold front will slide south through the area
Sunday afternoon and evening. In the wake of this front, stronger
upslope flow will result in the development of convection once again
across the High Plains. This convection looks to grow upscale into
an MCS, which then propagates east and southeast across southern
Kansas and northern into central Oklahoma Sunday night into Monday
morning. Some areas of heavy rainfall will be possible.

By this point, cooler air in the wake of the front will have
overspread much of the area and along with anticipated widespread
cloud cover and precip, temperatures will be much cooler Monday.
Highs are expected to be some 15 to 20 degrees below normal across
central and northern Oklahoma. Farther south, they will have to
wait another day to really feel the impacts of the front and
precip.

As this complex of storms moves east of the area by late Monday
afternoon, another complex of storms develops and moves toward the
area Monday night. This one looks to be a bit further south than the
previous night, although model solutions differ Monday night with
location, track and just how impactful this one may be. If it does
move through western into central sections of Oklahoma as currently
forecast, heavy, possibly flooding rainfall will be the main concern.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 152 AM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025

Mid-week the pattern is a little more uncertain with the current
models suggesting the mid-level ridge may try to build back
temporarily over the southern and central High Plains. But upslope
surface flow remains over the central High Plains especially as a
lee cyclone is predicted to develop over southeast Colorado on
Wednesday, so there is still some potential for showers and
storms. But then, at least for now, there is a somewhat persist
signal of a shortwave moving toward the central Plains flattening
the mid-level ridge and increasing storm chances again Wednesday
night/Thursday with the potential of yet another wave moving
toward the Plains Thursday night/Friday. Higher storm chances are
expected with these waves, and again locally heavy rainfall will
be possible in any areas that receive multiple rounds of storms.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 610 PM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025

VFR ceilings this TAF period. A few isolated showers/storms
continue to move across parts of OK. This activity is expected to
end over the next few hours. Additional showers/storms will be
possible late tonight/Sunday morning with highest chances in NW OK
so KWWR. Winds will generally be from the NE and E tonight with
winds shifting towards the E and SE Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  69  89  67  75 /   0  10  20  60
Hobart OK         69  92  67  85 /  10  10  20  30
Wichita Falls TX  70  92  72  92 /   0   0   0  10
Gage OK           65  85  60  72 /  20  40  70  70
Ponca City OK     64  86  62  70 /   0  10  40  80
Durant OK         71  94  71  92 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...25