954
FXUS64 KOUN 120737
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
237 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 232 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025

- Elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions each afternoon.

- Slight risk for severe storms in southeast Oklahoma on Wednesday
  afternoon and evening.

- High winds along with critical to extreme fire weather
  conditions on Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 232 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025

Near critical to critical fire weather will be concentrated in
southwest Oklahoma and western north Texas today, driven by a
combination of low RH values (mid teens) and gusty winds (20-25 mph
sustained). Models depict a transitory 850mb wind maxima (30-35
knots) translating eastward over western north Texas this afternoon.
Westerly downslope flow should give us efficient mix-down of these
winds (absent any mitigation from equally transient cloud cover),
though this effect should be transient as this features races
eastward across the area.

Additionally, we have a slight risk for severe storms late this
afternoon / early evening across southeast Oklahoma. A strong cap
should limit storm coverage (PoPs are only 10%), but instability and
shear should support severe hazards should any storm develop.

Outside of this, we`re looking at another warm day (highs in the 70s
and 80s) with increasing clouds (especially eastward). Lows will
generally be in the 40s.

Day

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday through Friday night)
Issued at 232 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025

Thursday will be sunny and warm with gusty winds across northwest
Oklahoma. These breezy winds will actually continue and spread over
the rest of the forecast area overnight as the next storm system
approaches. Elevated to near critical fire weather will again be a
concern across parts of western Oklahoma and western north Texas.

Friday`s headlines will be critical to extreme fire weather and
high winds. Little has changed regarding Friday`s forecast.

A deep upper low is forecast to move through the four corners region
Friday morning, traversing through Kansas during the day, with an
associated surface low showing an impressive 975mb center somewhere
over western Kansas. This will create a very tight pressure gradient
leading to very strong winds on Friday (ensemble means are showing
sustained winds of 35 to 45 mph with gusts reaching up to 60 mph).
NBM probabilities remain consistent with previous forecasts: 40-60%
chance for severe (58+ mph) gusts over much of western Oklahoma and
western Oklahoma, including the western side of the OKC metro
(though with lesser probabilities across parts of northwest
Oklahoma); and 60-80% probabilities in an area outlined by Hobart to
Lawton to Electra, TX to Altus. Advisory level gusts (40+ mph) are
virtually guaranteed everywhere but southeast Oklahoma (and there
the probabilities are 40-70%).

The current forecast calls for RH values in the low to mid teens
(with the lowest values over western north Texas), though with
westerly downslope flow, we`ll keep be keeping an eye out for any
signal for locally lower RHs, especially as we move into CAM range.

We`ll also be watching the progression of ERCS closely. Currently
ERCs are sitting in the 20-60th percentile range over southwest
Oklahoma and western north Texas (thanks to last weekend`s
beneficial rainfall), but conditions will be ideal for accelerated
drying over the next few days. Additionally, northern Oklahoma (due
to lack of rainfall) is already seeing ERCs in the 50-80th
percentile range. This will only worsen as we approach Friday.

All this together is expected to yield critical (widespread) to
extreme (mainly western north Texas) RFTIs on Friday.

Day

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 232 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025

Cooler temperatures are expected over the weekend (highs in the 60s)
with northerly winds. Areas of elevated fire weather will again be
possible both Saturday and Sunday.

By Monday, southerly surface flow is forecast to return, bringing
back highs in the 70s. Models depict a tightening pressure gradient
yielding breezy winds Monday and Tuesday. The risk for elevated to
near critical fire weather will continue.

Sometime mid week a cold front should move through, though models
disagree on when (synoptic spread is high at this range).

Day

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1056 PM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025

LLWS will be the main concern late tonight into Wednesday morning
due to light surface winds and a nocturnal LLJ for parts of
central and southern Oklahoma and north Texas. Broken mid-level
clouds stream in from the west tomorrow. The quasi-stationary
front remains over northern Oklahoma and we expect breezy
southwest winds by mid-day, especially at KSPS. Storm chances are
low late afternoon for KDUA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  77  46  78  56 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK         77  42  78  51 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  82  47  82  57 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           74  39  79  47 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     76  43  78  56 /   0   0   0   0
Durant OK         79  49  79  59 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM CDT this
     evening for TXZ084-087-088.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...14
SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...01