724
FXUS64 KOUN 141914
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
214 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 214 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

- Strong to severe thunderstorms, some with damaging wind gusts,
  are possible in northwest Oklahoma this afternoon into the
  evening.

- Low rain/storm chances linger over northwest Oklahoma through
  Sunday, with chances expanding over north-central Oklahoma on
  Sunday night.

- Frontal boundary will results in a brief reprieve in extreme
  heat for northern Oklahoma on Sunday and Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 214 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

Based on the 12Z RAOB analysis, the 596 dam ridge and associated
surface high are centered just east of New Orleans this morning. A
stationary boundary still extends across Kansas and is expected to
remain in the vicinity through tonight and tomorrow. The weather
highlights for today continue to be the extreme heat over northern
Oklahoma (advisory elsewhere), the marginal risk of strong to severe
downburst winds (far northwest Oklahoma), and elevated fire weather
conditions.

While temperatures are not expected to be quite as high as yesterday,
the heat indices will still rise to near 110 in the advisory area
and to 113 in the warning area. Modestly breezy southerly winds
continue, though again, not quite as high as yesterday. With minimum
RH values dropping to near 20 percent this afternoon, elevated fire
weather conditions are possible across parts of western Oklahoma and
adjacent north Texas.

Storm chances this afternoon and evening across far northwest Oklahoma
(ahead of the stationary boundary) are roughly 30 percent (Harper County)
with some CAMS producing radar echoes in this area. The HRRR suggests
a thin ribbon of moisture pooling across this area could lead to mixed-
layer CAPE up to about 1200 J/kg, with higher DCAPE values (1500 J/kg).
Explicit HRRR guidance indicates severe wind gusts remains west and
north of our CWA with this activity. However, there is a chance outflow
winds could move through this area.

Thompson

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Sunday night)
Issued at 214 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

The aforementioned ridge will retrograde towards our region while
intensifying, and is prog`d to be centered near the Red River Valley
by Sunday as a shortwave crosses the Rockies and pushes the frontal
boundary into northwest Oklahoma Saturday evening or early Sunday
morning. Until then, a Heat Advisory is in effect for northern,
central, southern Oklahoma and adjacent portions of western north
Texas with heat indices of 105 to 110 degrees expected.

Looking at the most HREF guidance, FROPA over northwest Oklahoma
(namely, Harper County) is as early as Saturday evening (6PM), with
the most likely time range within a few hours of midnight, and as
late as early Sunday morning (5AM). There is a chance of thunderstorms
over far northwest Oklahoma from afternoon and overnight. However,
models depict storms firing mainly across Kansas and the panhandles
once again. Gusty outflow winds are possible across northwest Oklahoma
with this activity.

The front is prog`d to move slowly southeastward and potentially
pass the I-40 corridor Sunday evening. Low rain/storm chances return
to northwest Oklahoma in the afternoon and overspread the northern
half of Oklahoma by evening and into early Monday morning. Any
storms will have the potential to produce strong, gusty winds.

Thompson

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Thursday)
Issued at 1220 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

The upper ridge axis gets shifted down into Texas this weekend
into Monday with a weak upper wave progged to move from the
central Plains into the mid- Mississippi Valley, which will likely
keep the surface boundary in northern Oklahoma and moderate
temperatures across the north on Monday. Beyond that, the
differences in the patterns depicted by the medium-range models
give more uncertainty as we get later into the week. The
operational GFS shows a trough moving into the Plains on Wednesday
night with the trough slowly moving through Thursday, while the
12Z ECMWF still shows us underneath the eastern limb of a large
upper ridge. Will be watching the trends over the next few days to
see if we will likely remain hot under the ridge or have an
increasing chances of storms and more seasonal temperatures mid to
late week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1203 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the period with a south or
south-southwest wind prevailing. Low level wind shear is possible
tonight at most sites with the low level jet. There is also a very
low chance for a shower or storm this evening at KWWR, but chances
were too low to include at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  78 101  78 102 /   0   0   0  10
Hobart OK         78 103  78 103 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  79 103  79 104 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           77 103  72  98 /  10  10  10  20
Ponca City OK     79 104  78 101 /   0   0   0  10
Durant OK         78 102  79 104 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Saturday for OKZ004-010.

     Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ005>008-
     011>013-018>020.

     Heat Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 7 PM CDT Saturday for
     OKZ005.

     Heat Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 7 PM CDT Sunday for
     OKZ006>008-011>013-018>020.

     Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ009-014>016-021-
     022-033>035.

     Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Sunday for OKZ017-023>032-036>048-
     050>052.

TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ083-084-087-088.

     Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Sunday for TXZ085-086-089-090.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...01
SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...08