554
FXUS64 KOUN 211931
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
131 PM CST Fri Feb 21 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 121 PM CST Fri Feb 21 2025

- Significant warming trend this weekend into next week

- Will remain dry, with elevated fire weather potential returning
  middle of next week out west

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1107 AM CST Fri Feb 21 2025

Cloud-cover is much more substantial than previously forecast,
with stratus advecting quickly across southern zones, and across
central Oklahoma into northern Oklahoma. Have updated sky grids
accordingly and lowered temperatures for today.

Thompson

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 121 PM CST Fri Feb 21 2025

The low-level moisture response associated with the shortwave over
Kansas has been stronger than anticipated, and the resulting stratus
deck observed across west-central, central, southeastern Oklahoma
and north Texas has been slow to advance eastward. As a result, this
has lowered our chances for reaching the freezing mark today with
highs in the mid/upper 20`s this afternoon over north-central and
central Oklahoma.

Latest CAMS suggest this plume of moisture exits our CWA by late
evening with cloudiness diminishing by tonight. Low temperatures
will mainly drop into the teens with some low 20`s for our for
southern TX and OK counties. No cold headlines tonight as wind
chills will remain above criteria. Lawton appears to have the best
chance of nearing record low temperatures early tomorrow morning
(16/1978).

Thompson

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Sunday night)
Issued at 121 PM CST Fri Feb 21 2025

Mostly sunny skies and downslope flow raises afternoon temperatures
into the mid-50`s (western Oklahoma/TX) and upper 40`s (central OK).
A few high clouds are possible near and south of the Red River as a
weak shortwave approaches southeast New Mexico and west Texas. Then,
balmy conditions by Sunday with sunny skies and highs mostly in the
60`s.

Thompson

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Thursday)
Issued at 121 PM CST Fri Feb 21 2025

Dry conditions and above-average temperatures persist through at least
Thursday. Temperatures remain mild mid-week, despite a cold front
that moves through on Wednesday. The most noticeable impact will
be the gusty post-frontal winds and decreasing relative humidity
as drier air moves into the area. Will then see elevated fire weather
potential begin to creep into western Oklahoma and adjacent north
Texas on Wednesday and Thursday.

Thompson

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1128 AM CST Fri Feb 21 2025

A relatively thin band of clouds (VFR ceilings 4-6k feet) has
been expanding northward this morning. This cloud cover is
expected to erode from west to east later this afternoon and
evening, as winds within this layer become west/northwest. Light
and variable winds early this afternoon will become light south
to southwest.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  17  49  28  60 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK         18  53  26  62 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  20  54  30  65 /   0   0  10   0
Gage OK           16  55  25  64 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     11  45  24  57 /   0   0   0   0
Durant OK         22  47  28  59 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...01
SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...06