515
FXUS64 KOUN 220639
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
139 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 134 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025

 - Low chance for showers/storms across western and northern
   Oklahoma late Wednesday into early Thursday and again late
   Thursday.

 - Dangerous heating is forecast to return by Thursday and
   strengthen into the upcoming weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 134 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025

Breezy and near seasonably hot again later this afternoon although
"slightly" less muggy than the previous several days.  Pressure
heights expected to fall as an upper trough retrogrades in from the
west. Due to the troughing, will see surface moisture continue
drying west to east lowering our dewpoints to the lower to mid 60s
across most of our forecast area by the afternoon.  Current Mesonet
observations showing the dewpoint gradient of the moister (70s) and
drier (60s) air stretched across west-central Oklahoma nearly
bisecting our forecast area.  As a result we will still see
widespread triple digit heat indices of 100-105 degrees this
afternoon staying just short of the criteria for a Heat Advisory.

Have also added low (20%) storm POPs for the evening hours across
the far western edge of our CWA.  Although most of our area should
stay capped and "too dry" for any late afternoon convection, diurnal
heating may weaken the cap out west on the Southern High Plains
under the weak troughing.  The NBM was dry while most of the
deterministic & CAMs guidance kept the convection out in the TX/OK
Panhandle with the lone ECMWF solution developing convection just
into our counties in far western Oklahoma & northern Texas.
Confident most (if any) convection develops would stay in the
Panhandles but can`t rule out a few could track into our far west.
Both weak instability & shear should inhibit any storms pulsing up
from becoming severe and organized.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday through Thursday night)
Issued at 134 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025

By Wednesday our retrograded upper wave transitions to a more
traditional shortwave trough with the opened low over the Four
Corners area of the Panhandles.  A vort-max in the trough at the mid-
levels along with un-capped strong mixing off the surface may
initiate some elevated convection across our western CWA during the
evening through overnight.  Although NBM had POPs restricted to our
northwest CWA, did increase the 15-20% POPs further south through
our entire western tier of Oklahoma & Texas counties during the
evening hours. Not expecting any of these storms to be severe.  A
surface boundary/cold front from a northern-based weather system may
push across Kansas initiating storms across the Central Plains
spilling into northern Oklahoma late Thursday.

As far as temperatures, mostly a persistent forecast with Wednesday
afternoon heat indices in the 100-105 degree range.  By Thursday
pressure heights being to rise as upper ridging starts rebuilding
with 70 degree dewpoints creeping back into southeast Oklahoma and
perhaps east-central Oklahoma.  With widespread hotter air
temperatures in triple digits of 100 to near 105 degrees and some
returning surface moisture will see afternoon heat indices return to
105-110 degrees with Heat Advisories possibly returning.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 134 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025

The forecast trend hotter on Friday into the weekend with dangerous
heating as the upper high "heat dome" strengthens with gulf surface
moisture transport increasing across eastern Oklahoma to as far west
as the I-35 corridor this weekend. Could see heat indices exceed 110
degrees across southeast Oklahoma by Saturday with 105-110 degree
heat indices across the rest of our area through the start of next
week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1038 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. There is a
low chance for LLWS to affect some terminals Tuesday morning, but
there is not a strong enough signal to add in the TAFs at this
time. Winds will predominately be out of the south and will be
breezy by the afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  97  75  96  76 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK        100  75  98  74 /   0   0   0  10
Wichita Falls TX 100  76 100  77 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           98  72  96  71 /   0  20  10  30
Ponca City OK     98  74  96  75 /   0   0   0  10
Durant OK         98  76  98  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...68
SHORT TERM...68
LONG TERM....68
AVIATION...13