531
FXUS64 KOUN 041652
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
Issued by National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1152 AM CDT Wed Jun 4 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1141 AM CDT Wed Jun 4 2025

- Showers and thunderstorms possible late tonight and every day
  through the weekend with an increased severe risk.

- Cooler temperatures today before a warming trend with normal
  temperatures by Friday.


&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 213 AM CDT Wed Jun 4 2025

Storms along the cold front have moved out of our southeast CWA
further into southeast Oklahoma. Our area will see below normal
temperatures behind the cooler drier air mass as much as 10
degrees below average. Although western Oklahoma and adjacent
western north Texas will see sun by this afternoon with
temperatures warming into the upper 70s, much of the central two-
thirds of Oklahoma will have persisting cloud cover and slightly
cooler with highs in the lower to mid 70s. Not as chilly tonight
as north winds veer east advecting in some warmer air. Storms will
develop late tonight into the early morning hours as a shortwave
expelled from longer wave trough over the western U.S. digs across
our area. A few severe storms initiating on the Southern High
Plains fed by a low-level jet may track into our far southwestern
CWA late with large hail & damaging winds gusts as potential
severe hazards.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday through Friday night)
Issued at 213 AM CDT Wed Jun 4 2025

Dryline convection may initiate on the Southern High Plains with
more widespread storms moving into our area late Thursday into
Friday when additional shortwave disturbances may move through. We
may see a complex of storms more widespread across our area as
well as an increased severe risk of large hail and damaging wind
gusts, with the tornado risk staying in the panhandles for now.
A potential outflow/surface boundary may be stretched across
across our area Friday night for additional storm development.
Warmer temperatures by Friday returning to more seasonably normal
temperatures.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 213 AM CDT Wed Jun 4 2025

Another shortwave trough approaching in northwest flow this
weekend, and a surface front/elevated boundary, may bring another
round of strong storms late Saturday into Sunday morning. At this
time, it appears southern Oklahoma and northern Texas will be the
favored area for this activity. It`s possible that enough drier
air will advect into the southern Plains that most of Sunday will
be dry.

The active pattern will likely persist into early next week with
additional chances of thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1141 AM CDT Wed Jun 4 2025

Widespread MVFR to IFR ceilings will continue through the period.
Areas the see improvement in ceilings today, will likely see
additional reduced ceilings later today into tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  63  79  69  86 /  20  30  60  50
Hobart OK         62  80  68  90 /  40  50  50  30
Wichita Falls TX  65  83  71  92 /  30  40  20  20
Gage OK           58  78  62  83 /  60  40  80  30
Ponca City OK     61  79  66  83 /  10  20  80  50
Durant OK         67  84  71  90 /  10  30  20  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...68
SHORT TERM...68
LONG TERM....68
AVIATION...13