992
FXUS64 KOUN 230456
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1056 PM CST Sat Feb 22 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1047 PM CST Sat Feb 22 2025

- Warming trend continues into next week with near to above-
  average temperatures.

- With warm, dry and breezy conditions forecast, fire weather
  concern looks to emerge by the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 205 PM CST Sat Feb 22 2025

Compressional warming from downslope winds this afternoon will
foster high temperatures in the 50s for most locations, and into
the low 60s across western Oklahoma. Surface winds will relax some
and back to the south near sunset. Clear skies overnight will
help aid in sufficient radiational cooling for low temperatures
Sunday morning to get down to the upper 20s across the area. A
system will make its way across north Texas overnight Saturday
into Sunday, and overall precipitation chances will remain south
of the Red River.

Bunker

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday night)
Issued at 205 PM CST Sat Feb 22 2025

Temperatures will continue to be on the upward trend as mid-level
ridging overspread the area from the west. The surface pattern
will continue to support both a warm airmass advecting from the
south (most of the area), and compressional warming from westerly
winds (western Oklahoma). Expect Sunday afternoon highs in the
60s, and 60s-70s on Monday afternoon. Far southwestern portions of
the forecast area could see highs on Monday approaching 80 F.
Given the cold temperatures through the month of February, the
next few days will more than make up for that cold stretch. Would
highly recommend getting out and enjoying these beautiful
temperatures!

Bunker

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 240 AM CST Sat Feb 22 2025

Near to slightly above-normal temperatures and mostly dry
conditions will be the weather theme of the period. Northwesterly
upper tropospheric flow will continue upstream of the region
through the midweek. Daily high temperatures in the 60s to 70s
appear likely for much of the week. The most "significant" day of
varied sensible impact looks to be Wednesday, when a more robust
upper system rounds of the periphery of the upper ridge (into the
Ohio/Missouri Valley. An associated (dry) frontal passage looks to
occur through the day, bringing a period of gusty north winds in
the post-frontal regime.

With no appreciable precipitation chances during the week, along
with warm and occasionally breezy conditions, concern for fire
weather looks to increase from Wednesday onward. This will
primarily focus across western Oklahoma and north Texas, where
most locations have received <1-inch of accumulated precipitation
over the last ~90+ days.

Ungar

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1047 PM CST Sat Feb 22 2025

An area of stratus and drizzle is moving eastward off of the Texas
Southplains currently. While rain is not expected in our area, the
potential exists for ceilings to drop below 10,000 feet at SPS
early tonight and at DUA tomorrow morning. This will be monitored
for potential TAF amendments. Winds are out of the south and will
remain at or below 10 knots.

Meister

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  53  28  62  35 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK         58  26  65  32 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  55  29  63  33 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           63  26  68  32 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     47  23  59  31 /   0   0   0   0
Durant OK         48  29  60  36 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...13
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....09
AVIATION...04