633
FXUS64 KOUN 121116
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
516 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 506 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025

- Wintry precipitation in the form of snow, sleet and freezing
  rain is expected this morning with hazardous travel impacts
  possible during the morning commute near and north of the I- 44
  corridor.

- Dangerous wind chills are likely Thursday morning.

- Strong cold fronts with additional chances for winter
  precipitation arrive on Saturday and Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 155 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025

The winter weather event is ongoing across the area early this
morning. As synoptic-scale ascent approaches from the southwest,
precipitation has developed across southwest Oklahoma into western
north Texas. Showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop as
the storm system quickly moves to the northeast.

The freezing line is currently from near Altus to Lawton to
Norman to Seminole. This line is only expected to advance a little
farther south before the heavier precipitation arrives, so the
current Winter Weather Advisory looks reasonable for now. The most
significant travel impacts will be where temperatures have fallen
into the upper 20s deg F (or lower).

Forecast soundings indicate the predominant precipitation types
near the freezing line will be freezing rain and sleet. As you go
a little northwest from the freezing line, sleet will likely
become the dominant precipitation type as the depth of the
subfreezing layer appears sufficiently deep for sleet. Whether
it`s sleet or freezing rain both can result in slick and hazardous
travel. Farther to the northwest (close to the Kansas/Oklahoma
border), sleet and snow will be the predominant precipitation
types.

Elevated instability has resulted some embedded thunderstorms
that will be capable of producing graupel, which will have the
appearance of sleet. The most intense thunderstorms may even
produce larger hailstones. Thunderstorms mean there will be the
potential for large variability in precipitation amounts over
short distances.

As the heavier precipitation departs to the northeast after 7 AM
(it`ll be short duration), there will be the potential for some
freezing drizzle in its wake. Forecast soundings indicate a low-
level saturated layer that persists through noon. Freezing drizzle
will further exacerbate any travel problems. Across northern
Oklahoma, the low-level saturated layer may produce snow grains
with temperatures cold enough to be in the dendritic growth zone
(DGZ).

Cold air advection during the day will result in steady and/or
falling temperatures this afternoon. This will set the stage for a
very cold night with low temperatures generally in the single
digits and teens Thursday morning. Dangerous wind chills are
likely Thursday morning with areas along and north of I-40 near to
below zero.

Mahale

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday through Friday night)
Issued at 155 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025

Thursday will be rather cold with continued northerly winds. High
temperatures will be around 20 deg F below average for mid-
February (generally in the 30s deg F).

Temperatures will moderate on Friday with a return to southerly
winds and the eastward expansion of a low-level thermal ridge.
However, most locations will likely still be slightly below
average on temperatures. Winds will be gusty with a tightening
surface pressure gradient.

Isentropic ascent/warm air advection Friday night will result in
a chance of rain across southeast Oklahoma (ahead of the next
storm system and attendant cold front).

Mahale

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 155 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025

The next trough and associated cold front is forecast to move
through the Southern Plains on Saturday. The cold front is
currently expected to move through during the daytime hours.
Therefore, many locations will likely see falling temperatures
during the afternoon. Depending on the track of the parent
mid/upper-level low, there will be a chance of snow behind the
cold front Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. The highest
chance for accumulating snow currently looks to be across northern
Oklahoma

Colder weather will return in the front`s wake for Sunday before
moderating on Monday---ahead of yet another storm system that
arrives on Tuesday. This storm system will bring colder weather
with another chance of winter precipitation by Tuesday into
Wednesday.

Mahale

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 506 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025

Wintry precip will continue to be both the main impact and the
biggest challenge to forecast through the morning hours. Attempted
to put the most likely precipitation types into each TAF, but in
areas where the temperatures are below freezing expect some
variance between dry periods, freezing drizzle, sleet, and snow.
By noon, precipitation should be out of most of the area. MVFR to
IFR ceilings should slowly erode through the afternoon hours,
though there is some question as to how fast clouds clear out.
North winds will experience their typical afternoon gustiness.

Day

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  31  14  33  21 /  60   0   0   0
Hobart OK         32  13  36  21 /  30  10   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  38  19  38  25 /  30   0   0   0
Gage OK           25   6  35  19 /  60  10   0   0
Ponca City OK     29   9  30  16 /  90   0   0   0
Durant OK         42  21  40  28 /  40   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST today for OKZ004>031-
     033>036-038.

TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...10
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...14