306
FXUS64 KOUN 281843
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
143 PM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 143 PM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

- Cold front arrives end of the week and brings some relief over
  the weekend.

- Low chances of showers and thunderstorms (northern Oklahoma)
  starting tonight.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 143 PM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

The increase today in high clouds today is associated with a
shortwave trough passing over Kansas and along the northwest
periphery of the ridge. This is leading to slightly less hot
temperatures today, particularly over northern Oklahoma. Still, we
expect heat advisory criteria to be met area-wide this afternoon.

The surface trough axis over Kansas is forecast to evolve into a
quasi-stationary frontal boundary tonight and push into parts of
north-central Oklahoma as the shortwave drops southward. The
frontal boundary will be most evident by the increased dewpoint
temperatures behind the boundary.

A complex of decaying thunderstorms (and associated outflow boundary)
is expected to descend from Colorado and approach northwest late Oklahoma
tonight early Wednesday morning. There is a very low chance (10%)
of light showers/sprinkles tomorrow morning over northwest
Oklahoma from this activity. Farther east and closer to the
stationary boundary, we could see low clouds develop over northern
and central Oklahoma tonight as moisture pools ahead of the
boundary. Additionally, there is a very low chance of light
showers early Wednesday morning for the northern half of Oklahoma
as WAA increases atop this boundary.

Thompson

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday through Thursday night)
Issued at 143 PM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

The outflow boundary is prog`d to arrive in northwest Oklahoma on
Wednesday morning and effectively pushes the weak surface low, that
has lingered over the Oklahoma panhandle, eastward. While the outflow
boundary will largely mix out as winds return to the south by afternoon.
However, some elevated baroclinicity along this zone in northwest Oklahoma
could be the focal area for shower/storm attempts on Wednesday afternoon
as another shortwave descends from the high plains. Mainly virga (along
with gusty winds) and some sprinkles appear to be the most likely outcome,
though. Otherwise, high temperatures will be less hot on Wednesday and
range from the upper- 90`s (Kay County) to near the century mark (central)
to near 105 (north- central to southwest OK).

As low-level WAA intensifies on Wednesday night, there is a chance of
scattered showers and thunderstorms for areas north of I-40. Additional
mid-/high-level clouds will continue to propagate into our area
from Kansas on Thursday. Despite this, hot conditions continue
with widespread high temperatures of 100 to 105 on Thursday.

Thompson

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 230 AM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Ensemble and deterministic guidance indicate a pattern change is
likely by the upcoming weekend as a shortwave trough amplifies and
digs southeastward on the northeast periphery of the ridge. The
ridge will retrograde to the west, which will bring in stronger
northerly flow aloft into the Southern Plains.

An initial cold front/northerly wind shift will move in Friday
morning. However, the cold air advection with the initial wind
shift will likely be limited/negligible. There will be a chance of
showers and thunderstorms with the front with the highest chance
across north central Oklahoma. Highs Friday afternoon will likely
still reach the 100s deg F across most locations (unless
shower/storm coverage is more widespread.

A stronger, reinforcing cold front will advance southward in tandem
with the shortwave trough late Friday into Saturday, bringing
cooler/less hot weather into the area. Even with a stronger front,
the most appreciable cold air advection will remain to our
northeast. As a result, the most significant cool down will be
across north central Oklahoma. Across southwest Oklahoma into
western north Texas, the cool down will be more limited. With
synoptic-scale forcing remaining to the northeast, rain chances are
very low/near zero.

High temperatures Saturday afternoon are forecast to range from the
low 90s (north central Oklahoma) to around 100 deg F (southwest
Oklahoma/western north Texas). This relative cool down will continue
into Sunday before warmer weather returns on Monday.

Mahale

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1209 PM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Cirrus from earlier showers/storms has overspread much of the area
and will linger through the afternoon/evening. Ceilings will
remain at or above 15,000, so VFR conditions continue. Tomorrow
morning, a weak cold front will enter northern Oklahoma, moving
winds toward the east. Winds south of the front will approach
southwesterly. VFR conditions continue.

Meister

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  78 101  78 101 /   0  10  10   0
Hobart OK         77 104  77 104 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  77 103  78 103 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           75 102  75 104 /  10  10  10  10
Ponca City OK     78  99  77  99 /  10  20  20  10
Durant OK         78 101  78 101 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ004>048-050>052.

     Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 9 PM CDT Wednesday for OKZ005>008-
     011>013-017>048-050>052.

TX...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ083>090.

     Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 9 PM CDT Wednesday for TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...01
SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...04