096
FXUS64 KOUN 050402
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1102 PM CDT Thu Sep 4 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1231 PM CDT Thu Sep 4 2025

 - Low chances for thunderstorms Thursday night through Saturday
   morning with a stronger frontal passage.

 - Severe storms possible Friday evening/night south central OK.

 - Cooler, below average temperatures this weekend into early
   next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Thu Sep 4 2025

A weak front has stalled in southern portions of the forecast area,
mainly affecting wind direction. High temperatures this afternoon
will range from the mid to upper 80s across northern and central
Oklahoma to the upper 90s across southern Oklahoma and north Texas.

A stronger cold front will be knocking at our northern doorstep
early tomorrow morning with a few scattered showers possible ahead
of the front in northern Oklahoma overnight.

Day

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Saturday night)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Thu Sep 4 2025

Friday and Saturday`s forecast will center around the progression of
a cold front through our forecast area. This front will arrive early
Friday and push south to the Red River by evening, bringing
temperatures 10-15 degrees cooler behind it (note, southern Oklahoma
/ north Texas will still climb into the 90s tomorrow afternoon
before frontal passage).

Scattered showers are expected to continue across Kansas, perhaps
edging into northern Oklahoma, through the day under the influence
of the upper wave. Additional scattered showers and storms will
develop Friday afternoon and evening  across southern Oklahoma and
north Texas with the arrival of the front. This comes with a
marginal risk for severe storms across southeast Oklahoma during the
late afternoon and evening hours.

Drier air will push out rain chances behind the front, leaving
Saturday dry and cool. Lows Saturday morning are expected to drop to
near the 5th percentile of climatology (upper 40s and 50s), with
afternoon highs topping out in the 70s. Add in light winds and
diminishing clouds, and its shaping up to be a beautiful taste of
early fall.

Day

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 108 AM CDT Thu Sep 4 2025

Rain chances could continue the rest of the weekend into early next
week as disturbances move through the flow. However, it looks like
maybe a few of the models are beginning to trend a little bit drier
so if this trend continues, chances may gradually decrease. Models
show upper ridge building in the central U.S. towards the middle to
late next week as longwave trough digs into the western U.S. If this
occurs, the forecast will likely become drier with fewer to no
chances of rain for at least a few days.

The cooler, below average temperatures are expected to continue
through the rest of the weekend into early next week with highs in
the 70s to maybe low 80s. With the upper ridge beginning to build
towards the middle of next week, temperatures are expected to begin
to warm.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1102 PM CDT Thu Sep 4 2025

Showers and thunderstorms are developing from southwest Kansas
into northwest Oklahoma, with scattered storms continuing
overnight into Friday morning across the north and potentially
into central Oklahoma as well. Non-convective low-level wind shear
will also be an issue overnight at most of the TAF sites with
southwest winds of 30 to 40 knots about 500 to 1000 feet AGL above
light surface winds. A cold front will move south through the area
overnight and tomorrow and it looks like the front will push
through southern Oklahoma and north Texas faster than the 00Z TAFs
forecast. Some stratus will develop north of the front with areas
of MVFR ceilings, especially across the northern half of
Oklahoma.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  68  75  55  73 /  20  10  20  10
Hobart OK         70  81  55  76 /  10  10  10  10
Wichita Falls TX  76  93  58  78 /   0  20  20  10
Gage OK           58  67  49  73 /  20  20  10  10
Ponca City OK     62  71  51  76 /  30  40  20   0
Durant OK         72  93  60  78 /   0  20  30  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...14
SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...26