569
FXUS64 KOUN 030551
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1251 AM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1249 AM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025

 - Periods of showers and thunderstorms possible tonight through Monday.
   Storms may become severe, especially across western Oklahoma
   and into adjacent portions of western north Texas with damaging
   winds and flooding the primary hazards.

 - Gradual warming trend through the next week with triple digits
   returning by the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1249 AM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025

Ongoing convection in southwest Kansas will continue to push
southeastward through the overnight hours with a passing shortwave.
The strengthening low-level jet across West Texas into southwest
Kansas is aiding in a developing MCS. Steering flow aloft is out of
the northwest around 25 to 35 knots. MUCAPE values of 1000-2000 J/kg
with strong 50+ knot effective shear and modest lapse rates will
give way to maintenance of this MCS as it pushes southward into the
eastern portions of the Texas Panhandle and western Oklahoma through
the early morning hours. Main hazard will be locally strong to
severe wind gusts up to 70 mph, but small hail cannot be ruled
out in a few stronger updrafts. As storms progress, the activity
is expected to weaken across central and southern Oklahoma through
the morning hours today. PWATs of up to about 1.5" may give way
to heavy rainfall and rainfall rates up to 1-2" per hour.
Depending on the track of the MCS and stronger updrafts, some
areas may see up to 1- 2" of rainfall.

Additional showers and storms may be possible tomorrow afternoon in
the wake of the decaying overnight MCS with a weak shortwave across
the High Plains. However, this potential will be highly contingent
on the evolution of the this morning`s storms, along with any
lingering outflow boundaries. A few of these storms could become
strong, especially in areas where clouds clear and convective
temperatures can be reached. High temperatures are expected to warm
into the 80s to lower 90s, but any lingering cloud cover and
convection could limit daytime heating.

Diurnal convection off the higher terrain this afternoon will once
again push southeastward into the evening hours. The low-level jet
will be weaker tonight and storms are likely to weaken into the late
evening hours with a loss of daytime heating. However, CAMs are
suggesting scattered showers and storms to develop across southern
Oklahoma into north Texas near midnight with a passing shortwave and
increased 30-40 knot northerly jet aloft. A few of these storms
could be strong to severe with large hail and damaging winds the
main hazards. Any lingering outflow boundaries will also aid in
storm development and a weak spin-up tornado cannot be ruled out
despite the tornado threat remaining low.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 1249 AM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025

Any showers and storms that develop overnight tonight will diminish
Monday morning with near-zero precipitation chances the remainder of
the day with the departing shortwave. Meanwhile, the upper ridge
will begin to slide eastward into New Mexico Monday and Tuesday.
Thus, temperatures will begin the gradual warming trend with highs
in the 80s to 90s Monday and then near widespread lower to mid-90s
by Tuesday afternoon.

Northwest flow will persist aloft with a potential for late night
convection to develop Tuesday night. Chances remain low (<10%), but
any developing shortwaves embedded in the flow aloft could give way
to increased storm chances.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 1249 AM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025

The remainder of the week and heading into next week features a
warming trend and the return of triple digit heat. The upper ridge
is expected to remain nearly stationary, wobbling over New Mexico.
Additionally, 850mb temperatures will begin to increase as the low-
level thermal ridge strengthens. Southerly surface flow will
continue to pump low-level moisture into the area with a potential
for dangerous heat indices towards the end of the week. Any
precipitation chances will be contingent on the progression of the
ridge and any developing shortwaves. Northwesterly flow aloft can
bring an increased potential for overnight convection off the High
Plains. Currently the forecast remains dry, but the potential for
rain will be ironed out throughout the week with higher resolution
guidance and previous day`s outcome.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1137 PM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. A line of
thunderstorms is expected to move into Oklahoma from Kansas later
tonight into the morning. Western and central TAF sites could be
impacted by this line of storms. Additional thunderstorm
development is possible during the afternoon, but confidence in
affecting any one TAF site is low at this time. Winds are expected
to shift to the south tonight, then back to the east-southeast
during the latter half of the TAF period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  84  67  85  66 /  50  70  20   0
Hobart OK         90  67  89  67 /  70  50  10   0
Wichita Falls TX  93  69  90  70 /  40  50  20   0
Gage OK           84  63  86  64 /  60  40   0   0
Ponca City OK     82  65  84  64 /  50  70  20   0
Durant OK         89  69  87  68 /  10  40  30   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...23
SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...13