243
FXUS64 KOUN 071750
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1250 PM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1249 PM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

- Ongoing heatwave continues through at least midweek with triple
  digit heat indices and lows well above normal.

- Very low chances for rain/storms across southeast Oklahoma on
  Monday.

- Possible pattern shift by late week with less dangerous heating
  and increasing rain chances late Wednesday into Thursday.


&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 1249 PM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

As it has been for weeks (months?) now, the main weather impact
today and this evening will be the heat. While folks should be
acclimated to the 100-107 heat indices, there is still an inherent
danger to any outdoor Labor Day activities this afternoon if proper
heat precautions (hydration, frequent shade break, etc). The
greatest heat risk will be across the southeastern part of Oklahoma,
where winds will be a little lighter and probabilities of breaking
into the 106-110 heat index range are greater.

Across that same portion of southeast oklahoma, high-resolution
guidance such as the HRRR and 3km NAM depict weak convection in the
peak of daytime heating. Forecast soundings show an uncapped but
only weakly unstable environment with up to 1,000 J/kg of MLCAPE. In
all likelihood, the showers we see this afternoon and evening will
be similar to the last several days - ephemeral, with little impact
other than the occasional lightning strike, and mostly focused in
NWS Tulsa`s CWA.

The heat advisory remains in effect tonight with lows remaining in
the upper 70s (10-15 degrees above normal).

Meister

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 1249 PM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

The seemingly unending heatwave has at least one more crescendo
coming on Tuesday and Wednesday with highs surging back into the low-
to-mid 100s area-wide. This will already put us into unprecedented
territory in our area - if Oklahoma City hits 100 each of the next
three days, as is currently explicitly forecasted, we will set a
September record for most 100-degree days (current record: 7) by the
9th of the month.

As has usually been the case, the peak of the heating will be
followed by a frontal intrusion. Currently that frontal intrusion
looks to occur Wednesday evening/night in northern Oklahoma and just
outside the range of the short-term forecast for the rest of the
area. With westerly flow aloft leaking at least as far south as
Kansas and a reasonably unstable (MLCAPE 1,000-2,000 J/kg)
environment, scattered to widespread storm development will occur by
late afternoon near the OK/KS border along the front. The
environment doesn`t look terribly impressive for severe weather
impacts, though downbursts are certainly possible during the diurnal
cycle. Perhaps of just as much importance, the LLJ strengthens and
veers overnight. Global models and the NAM are rather bullish on
continued instability (MUCAPE > 1,000 J/Kg) and show the most
significant precip footprints we`ve seen in weeks north of I-40.
Widespread drought relief in those areas? Perhaps not, especially if
the mesoscale details don`t support a more widespread MCS. But it is
at least a glimmer of hope.

Meister

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 135 AM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

With models coming into alignment in bringing a cold front
through late on Wednesday, confidence is increasing in heat relief
on Thursday. North of I-40, we have 30-50% of temperatures below
90 degrees (virtually all ensemble members keep this area below
100). Southern Oklahoma and north Texas are likely to be warmer
with 40-80% chance of highs below 100 degrees (0-20% chance for
less than 90). Showers and storms will likely linger into Thursday
morning with 20-30% chance for afternoon redevelopment (highest
chances along the front). Temperatures will depend largely on
progression of the front and extent of cloud cover and showers.

While models diverge greatly on what the synoptic pattern will
look like over the weekend, they do have general agreement that
the ridge will continue to exert some influence with positive
500mb height anomalies over us. Rain chances through this period
range from 10-30% (highest in northern Oklahoma). Temperatures
will likely be in the 90 to 105 degree range with the warmest
temperatures more likely in southern Oklahoma / north Texas.
Beyond Sunday, the interquartile spread increases to 15 to 25
degrees.

Day

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

VFR conditions are expected to continue into Tuesday with
generally light south winds. Very low chances (10-30%) for showers
and storms will be in place once again this afternoon for areas
east of I-35, with the highest relative chance at KDUA where
PROB30 was included for this afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 135 AM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

While no particular day stands out as problematic (RH values
generally stay above 25 percent), hot temperatures and very dry
fuels (90th+ percentile ERCs) warrant keeping a close eye on
conditions through midweek.

Wednesday will bring a northerly wind shift with the front along
with 20-50% chance for wetting rains (lowest in north Texas,
highest in northeast Oklahoma).

Day

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  77 101  78 101 /   0   0   0  10
Hobart OK         78 103  78 103 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  78 103  78 103 /   0   0  10  10
Gage OK           76 102  76 101 /   0   0   0  40
Ponca City OK     77 102  77 101 /   0   0   0  30
Durant OK         76 103  76 102 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Tuesday for OKZ006>008-011>013-
     017>020-023>032-035>048-050>052.

TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Tuesday for TXZ085-086-088>090.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...08