887
FXUS64 KOUN 310822 AAA
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
222 AM CST Fri Jan 31 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 220 AM CST Fri Jan 31 2025

- Dense fog this morning.

- Well above average temperatures and elevated fire weather this
  weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 208 AM CST Fri Jan 31 2025

Areas of dense fog will continue for a few hours after sunrise this
morning across parts of the area. Northern part of upper system will
swing through Kansas and a band of light rain across southwest
Kansas may move across parts of northern into central Oklahoma later
this morning. With this in mind have added some low precip chances
to these areas. Otherwise, by mid-morning should see fog dissipate
and mid/high clouds associated with upper low will translate east,
leaving mostly sunny skies by midday.

Upper low will accelerate east and northeast across the area this
morning as weak "cold" front moves northwest to southeast across the
area. No real cool down is expected with this front. It will
primarily consist of a wind shift and downslope component to the
lower level wind fields behind the boundary will actually aid to
warm the airmass as it comes off the higher terrain to our
northwest. This will also allow the airmass to dry (highs in the
upper 50s and 60s), dropping humidity to near 20 percent, especially
across western Oklahoma and western north Texas this afternoon. The
lower humidity and warm temperatures will create an area of elevated
fire weather for a few hours this afternoon across far western
Oklahoma and western north Texas, however ERC percentiles of 35 to
40 percent will limit overall risk.

Weak surface ridge will work east across the Plain states into the
upper midwest and Ozarks overnight as pressure falls occur through
the High Plains. As this occurs, south winds will return to the
entire area by Saturday morning. Although with the light winds,
drier air and clear skies, temperatures will fall into the upper 20
and lower 30s across much of the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Sunday night)
Issued at 208 AM CST Fri Jan 31 2025

South winds increase quickly Saturday as surface pressure gradient
strengthens through the Plains as storm system moves through the
north central part of the CONUS. Strong, southerly low level flow
will result in a warmer day Saturday with very little change in low
level moisture(dry return flow type of day), especially west. This
combination will result in another day with fire weather concerns as
elevated to areas of near critical develop during the afternoon
across west/southwest Oklahoma and western north Texas. Even with
lower ERC values, a fire danger statement will likely be needed.

The breezy south winds will keep overnight lows milder Saturday
night and help start the day Sunday not too much cooler than normal
highs for this time of year across part of the area.

Weak surface trough will work through parts of the area on Sunday,
with much weaker winds, which will help to keep fire concerns down
compared to Saturday. However, a bit of a thermal ridge develops
just ahead of aforementioned trough, south of I-40, and daytime
temperatures will climb well into the 70s with a few 80s possible
across Red River valley and north Texas. With the drier air
remaining in place, an area of elevated fire weather will again be
possible across western north Texas.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 208 AM CST Fri Jan 31 2025

As we go into early next week a front makes a run toward the
southern Plains, however differences exist in the models with how
far the front makes it south impacting temperatures across the area,
especially Tuesday. GFS takes the front to near the Red River before
stalling it and then lifting it back north Wednesday. Meanwhile the
ECMWF holds the front closer the Kansas border before washing the
boundary out. Currently MOS guidance differences for highs on
Tuesday, for what its worth is 34 degrees. GFS has a high of 43,
while the ECMWF would say 77 for OKC.

With either solution, we get another very warm day Wednesday with
strong south winds. Better moisture should limit fire concerns at
this time.

Models then bring stronger front south Thursday, although again some
timing differences exist. Temperature forecast this next week could
be a challenge.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1034 PM CST Thu Jan 30 2025

IFR conditions are expected across northern Oklahoma and
potentially down into central Oklahoma through mid morning. VFR
conditions are expected through the remainder of the period. Weak
winds will become northwesterly as a cold front moves into the
area. Winds behind this front are expected to be breezy from mid
morning until near sunset.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  58  33  67  46 /  20   0   0   0
Hobart OK         63  32  72  42 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  65  35  74  49 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           61  31  71  35 /  10   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     55  29  65  40 /  20   0   0   0
Durant OK         63  36  65  46 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for OKZ007-008-
     012-013-017>020-024>026-028>032.

TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...13