325
FXUS64 KOUN 250256
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
956 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 952 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025

 - Increasing rain chances this afternoon and especially evening
   across the north.

 - Widespread, heavy rainfall increasingly likely early this week
   with another round of potentially heavy rainfall late in the
   week.

 - Cooler weather arrives Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 1256 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue this
afternoon across mainly northwest Oklahoma as weak waa aloft and
forcing from a shortwave dropping southeast into northern Oklahoma
combine to aid in development. A few of these storms could be strong
to low end severe as 1000-1500J/kg of CAPE and modest deep-layer
shear will be present. Main hazards will be strong wind gusts, hail
and cloud-to-ground lightning. Some of this activity could linger
into the evening hours today.

Meanwhile, additional convection across the High Plains of Colorado
is expected to grow upscale into a larger complex of storms (MCS)
across Kansas this evening and then trek southeast into northern
Oklahoma overnight into early Monday. Some localized rainfall
amounts of 2-3 inches appear possible, but with low probability of
occurrence. However, amounts of 1-2 inches are more likely across
areas north of I-40, at least through 12Z Monday. Not currently
anticipating issuing a Flood Watch.

This complex will also aid in pushing cooler air south overspreading
the area, which will be the beginning of a much cooler week ahead.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 1256 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025

Storms will be ongoing across much of the northern half of Oklahoma
Monday morning and will be slow to translate east across the area
during the day. Additional showers/storms will be possible during
the day Monday into Monday evening further south and west on other
boundaries that will likely be present, such as differential
heating, outflow, etc.

Rain/storm chances continue Monday night into Tuesday as another
complex of storms develop to our west/northwest and propagates
east/southeast through the area. Although confidence remains rather
low from Monday afternoon through Tuesday as models differ on
location/intensity/evolution of convection.

Widespread cloud cover and possibly precip will keep temperatures
will below normal across northern two-thirds of the area Monday and
into the Red River valley Tuesday (Highs mainly in the 70s).

May catch a short break from the more widespread rainfall from the
previous couple of days for late Tuesday and Tuesday night before
rain chances ramp back up later in the week.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 1247 AM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025

A series of mid-level waves ride over the ridge over the western
United States in the middle to later part of the week with each
bringing the potential for precipitation development. Locally
heavy rainfall will be possible, especially in areas that get
multiple rounds of storms and heavy rainfall over the period. The
highest chances of rain will be across northern Oklahoma given the
forecast stronger mid-level flow in the north. There are more
differences late Friday into Saturday with the forecast upper
pattern with the operational GFS breaking down the ridge over the
Colorado Plateau allowing waves to approach from the west and
keeping precipitation chances higher and farther south.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 952 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025

Showers/storms will increase overnight into Monday becoming more
widespread with highest chances along and north of I-40. VFR/MVFR
ceilings expected this TAF period although IFR ceilings could be
possible, especially with some of the thunderstorms. Winds will
generally be from the NE to SE with winds becoming N to NE Monday.
However, brief periods of shifting winds will be possible with
any outflow boundaries.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  66  75  62  74 /  30  70  70  50
Hobart OK         67  84  62  78 /  30  40  60  40
Wichita Falls TX  72  94  66  80 /   0  10  20  30
Gage OK           60  72  57  72 /  80  80  70  50
Ponca City OK     61  68  58  78 /  70  90  40  20
Durant OK         71  94  69  81 /  10  20  20  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...25