951
FXUS64 KOUN 101742
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1242 PM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1240 PM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025

  - Warm weather expected through the weekend.

  - Low (20-30%) chance for rain/storms to return across portions
    of Oklahoma early next week.

  - Winds pick up on Sunday, leading to low end fire weather
    concerns.

&&

.Not much happening weather wise today or today. Lots of sunshine and
temperatures creeping closer and closer to 90 degrees for
afternoon highs. Winds aren`t that bad either, mainly out of the
south at 5-15 mph for most of us. The exception is in northwestern
Oklahoma, where the 850 mb jet is a bit stronger, allowing for
the south-southwest winds to gust to over 20 mph.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Sunday night) Issued at 1236 PM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025

Continuing the pattern, things will be generally quiet on the
weather side of things over much of the weekend. Saturday afternoon
will be `hottest`, with widespread highs in the upper 80s and low
90s. However, things will begins to slowly show some subtle
changes by Sunday afternoon and evening.

In fact, some of the changes on Sunday won`t be subtle at all -the
winds will remember the state song lyrics and begin sweeping down
the plains like they should this time of year. See the Fire Weather
section below for some nerdiness about this.

Record heat is not anticipated on Saturday:

OKC Forecast high: 88 Record high (year): 94 (1979)

Wichita Falls Forecast high: 91 Record high (year): 100 (2020)

Lawton Forecast high: 90 Record high (year): 98 (2020)

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Thursday) Issued at 1236 PM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025

First subtle change to notice late in the day on Sunday will be some
high clouds crossing from west to east. Then, the winds will become
lighter early Monday, before the winds shift to the north and
northeast through the day. The wind shift will be a cold front,
which will bring slightly cooler temperatures, but more
importantly...some showers or thunderstorms.

Before anyone gets too excited, the PoPs are 20-30% for most areas,
and even those that have these higher PoPs will not see as much rain
as most of us would like. But, at least the pattern is changing a
bit, and some portions of Oklahoma will see some showers or
thunderstorms Monday and Tuesday. By Wednesday, the upper level high
begins to build in again, at least briefly.

And while a bit out of range for this forecast, the ECMWF and GFS
are both consistent with another, stronger front moving into the
south plains towards next weekend. It`s a little early for any
details, but there are some promising signs for a better pattern
change in the 8-14 day timeframe.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025

All of terminals should remain in a VFR category through the
entire forecast period. A surface high across the Mississippi
Valley Region will keep surface winds out of the southwest
between 10-15 kts through 00Z, after which wind will back
southeast and lighten to 5-10 kts through the night. By 16Z
surface winds will veer southwest at 10 kts with gusts up to 15
kts possible.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025

While this may be the first fire weather section in an AFD in some
time, the upcoming weather pattern is definitely not that unusual
for October. Also, from a fire weather standpoint, the weather on
Sunday is a far cry from a high end day.

That said, Sunday will be a day where just enough parameters will be
coming into play.

First, the surface winds will be up, especially over NW OK.
Southwest winds at 15-25 mph at the surface will be common, with an
occasional gust to over 35 mph in the northwestern portions of
Oklahoma. In this area, surface relative humidity will be dropping
to around 30%. Not terrible, but still dry.

Second, a low level thermal ridge will be over the same are of NW
OK. This is an area of warm temperatures (greater than 20 degC)
directly above the strongest winds. If this were a thunderstorm
scenario, this would be an extremely strong cap.

Third, the fuels are dry. Sunday`s ERC percentiles will be around
the 70-80% range, but mainly in SW Oklahoma. RFTI values will be
maxed out around 3 in NW Oklahoma, driven mainly by the wind
speeds.

To sum it all up, there may be some low end fire concerns on
Sunday, with the dry and windy conditions. All of the conditions
for a big and bad fire weather day are not there, but there are
enough parameters to warrant caution for Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  62  88  65  88 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK         60  89  64  90 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  60  90  63  91 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           61  86  65  86 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     63  89  65  90 /   0   0   0   0
Durant OK         60  87  60  88 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...21
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION...68