645
FXUS64 KOUN 140520
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1220 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1220 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

- Heat wave continues with dangerous heat each afternoon.

- Strong to severe thunderstorms, some with damaging wind gusts,
  are possible in northwest Oklahoma this afternoon into the
  evening.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of tonight through Friday)
Issued at 1220 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

Convection in Kansas has been more widespread and farther south
than many of the models suggested with outflow pushing south of
the current convection as well. While it is still most likely that
the storms will remain to the north, have added an area of low
POPs near the Kansas border for early this morning and will watch
trends.

Similar to yesterday, the forecast heat indices in north central
Oklahoma would support an Excessive Heat Warning again for this
afternoon. However, there is at least some question on how the
convection in Kansas and associated outflow will affect the
weather later today, so will wait until later in the shift to
watch trends and decide if and where to issue an Excessive Heat
Warning.

Many models show a potential repeat of shower/thunderstorm
potential in the northwest this afternoon, and have expanded the
area with POPs a little broader than the NBM.

Fire Weather conditions will be elevated again this afternoon,
although the wind is not expected to be as strong. We will issue a
Fire Danger Statement for western portions of the CWA. We will
also have to watch for the potential of dry lightning with the
elevated convection in the northwest this afternoon.



&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday night through Sunday night)
Issued at 1220 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

The heat continues, but there is some potential for slight
moderation of the heat in the north on Sunday as a weak boundary
is progged by many models to move into northern Oklahoma. This
boundary will also give somewhat higher precipitation chances in
the north late Sunday and Sunday night.

At this point, will keep the Heat Advisory as is with the highest
chances of reaching criteria across the eastern half of the
forecast area, although there will be the chance that the advisory
will eventually be expanded.

Elevated fire weather concerns continue in the west and north on
Saturday. Lighter winds in the vicinity of the boundary may keep
conditions more in check on Sunday.


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Thursday)
Issued at 1220 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

The upper ridge axis gets shifted down into Texas this weekend
into Monday with a weak upper wave progged to move from the
central Plains into the mid- Mississippi Valley, which will likely
keep the surface boundary in northern Oklahoma and moderate
temperatures across the north on Monday. Beyond that, the
differences in the patterns depicted by the medium-range models
give more uncertainty as we get later into the week. The
operational GFS shows a trough moving into the Plains on Wednesday
night with the trough slowly moving through Thursday, while the
12Z ECMWF still shows us underneath the eastern limb of a large
upper ridge. Will be watching the trends over the next few days to
see if we will likely remain hot under the ridge or have an
increasing chances of storms and more seasonal temperatures mid to
late week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1036 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

VFR category will prevail during the upcoming period. Have opted
to add mention of low-level wind shear at several central and
northern Oklahoma terminals early on Friday given signal for a
slightly stronger low-level jet feature here.

Similar to today, widely scattered (high-based) convection is
expected across northwestern Oklahoma on Friday afternoon into
evening, offering potential for gusty & erratic winds. Otherwise,
a gusty south-southwesterly surface wind and patches of high
clouds are expected across Oklahoma and north Texas tomorrow.

Safe travels!

Ungar

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 103  79 102  77 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK        106  81 104  77 /   0  10   0   0
Wichita Falls TX 106  79 104  78 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK          107  78 103  75 /  10  20  20  10
Ponca City OK    105  81 104  78 /   0   0  10  10
Durant OK        103  77 102  77 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Friday for OKZ004-005-009-010-
     014>017-021>023-033>038-044.

     Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Sunday for OKZ006>008-011>013-
     018>020-024>032-039>043-045>048-050>052.

TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Friday for TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...09