444
FXUS64 KOUN 051114
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
614 AM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 115 AM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025

 - Warm and dry conditions to persist through Sunday afternoon.

 - Rain returns to the forecast Sunday night thru Tuesday.

 - A cold front brings cooler temperatures on Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Sunday)
Issued at 115 AM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025

A mid and upper level low, spinning over central Wyoming early this
morning, will continue to lift into the northern Plains today. An
associated frontal boundary will move southward across parts of
northern and western Kansas, and will be near northwestern
Oklahoma by early evening. Otherwise, another very warm day is
expected across Oklahoma and northern Texas with highs in the
upper 80s to lower 90s. A southerly wind will prevail and will be
a little gusty from the late morning into the early afternoon. A
few mid-level clouds may form this morning across northwestern
Oklahoma, but are not expected to yield any precipitation.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday night through Tuesday night)
Issued at 115 AM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025

A cold front will continue to drift closer to northwest Oklahoma
this evening and overnight with a better push across parts of the
Oklahoma and Texas Panhandle.  A fairly strong low-level jet will
develop by mid to late evening.  This coupled with modest warm air
advection above, should result in elevated showers and storms.
Coverage should be limited and mainly confined to northwestern
Oklahoma, so rain chances will remain low (20-30%).

Monday into Monday night, a trough over the northern and central
Rockies will move east and gradually weaken. This should help push
the frontal boundary slowly southward into parts of western and
northern Oklahoma during the afternoon and evening.  Scattered
afternoon convection is expected to along and near the cold front
and may increase in coverage during the evening and overnight.  The
precipitation and high pressure building southward should help push
the cold front through southern Oklahoma and northern Texas on
Tuesday.  Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will linger
across the northern half of Oklahoma on Tuesday morning but should
gradually end during the afternoon.  Models differ on the amount of
drier air and cooler temperatures that will filter into the area
behind the front Tuesday and Tuesday night.   For now will go with a
blended approach which only cools temperatures a few degrees across
southern Oklahoma and northern Texas on Tuesday.  Northern and
central Oklahoma will see temperatures 10 to 15 degrees cooler.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 115 AM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025

On Wednesday, surface high pressure centered over the Upper Midwest
will continue to build east with a southerly wind returning to
Oklahoma and northern Texas by early Thursday.  A mid-level ridge
will begin to rebuild and amplify, but how far west this will occur
is uncertain.  Ensembles favor the ridge axis near of close to the
southern and central Plains which bring more above-average
temperatures and dry conditions at least Thursday into
Friday/Saturday.  If the ridge axis is positioned farther west, the
southern Plains will transition to northwest flow aloft with a
chance of more rain and another cold front by late Thursday into
Friday. For now will keep the forecast dry and warm.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 614 AM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025

VFR conditions are expected. Similar to the last couple of days,
there will be gusty southerly winds from mid to late morning
through the afternoon. Isolated showers or storms will be possible
in far northwest Oklahoma, but highest chances will remain north
and west of KWWR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  87  64  87  63 /   0   0   0  10
Hobart OK         89  63  89  61 /   0   0   0  10
Wichita Falls TX  89  63  90  64 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           87  63  82  55 /   0  20  20  50
Ponca City OK     89  63  88  61 /   0   0  10  20
Durant OK         87  64  87  66 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...06
SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...26