211
FXUS64 KOUN 031741
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1241 PM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1237 PM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025

 - Showers and thunderstorms possible tonight through Monday
   morning. Storms may become severe, especially across western Oklahoma
   and into adjacent portions of western north Texas with
   damaging winds and flooding the primary hazards.

 - Gradual warming trend through the next week with triple digits
   returning by the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025

Showers and embedded thunderstorms have largely dissipated and/or
moved out of the area as of early this afternoon outside of far
southern and eastern parts of the area, with leftover mid-high
clouds persisting across a broader portion of the area. Given
clouds limiting full insolation and the stabilizing effects of
outflow, chances for additional showers and storms for the
remainder of the afternoon appear minimal (10-20%).

By early to mid evening, a modest southerly low-level jet will
develop across southwest into west-central Oklahoma. Forcing from
the jet, along with a weak shortwave tracking out of Kansas, will
likely lead to renewed shower and thunderstorm development this
evening into the overnight period. CAMs exhibit a good deal of
spread on the exact location of where convection will develop, but
greatest consensus is across southwestern into central Oklahoma
along the terminus of the low-level jet, which is where we have
focused our highest PoPs during the overnight period. Given 1000-
2000 J/kg of MUCAPE and 30-40 knots of effective shear, a few storms
will be capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts, along with
very heavy rainfall and localized flooding.

Ware

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025

Shower and thunderstorm activity is expected to linger into mid-late
Monday morning before eventually dissipating. The remainder of
Monday into the day on Tuesday is expected to be dry as the upper
ridge begins to build back into the area. Highs Monday afternoon
will be in the mid-upper 80s for most spots, with some low 90s
across our southwest, with highs then warming about 5 degrees on
Tuesday.

Ware

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025

The remainder of the week and heading into next week features a
warming trend and the return of triple digit heat. The upper ridge
is expected to remain nearly stationary, wobbling over New Mexico.
Additionally, 850mb temperatures will begin to increase as the low-
level thermal ridge strengthens. Southerly surface flow will
continue to pump low-level moisture into the area with a potential
for dangerous heat indices towards the end of the week. Any
precipitation chances will be contingent on the progression of the
ridge and any developing shortwaves. Northwesterly flow aloft can
bring an increased potential for overnight convection off the High
Plains. Currently the forecast remains dry, but the potential for
rain will be ironed out throughout the week with higher resolution
guidance and previous day`s outcome.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1159 AM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025

Afternoon storms chances are looking lower, so have removed mention
from the TAFs. Overnight storms still appear likely, though location
and timing is still quite uncertain.

A wake low moving through southern Oklahoma and north Texas will
allow for a brief period of gusty winds early this afternoon.
Afterward, expect mainly light winds (except in areas near
convection) through the rest of the TAF period.

Day

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  67  85  67  91 /  60  30   0   0
Hobart OK         66  90  68  95 /  60  10   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  69  91  70  96 /  60  20   0   0
Gage OK           63  87  65  92 /  40   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     66  83  65  89 /  60  20   0   0
Durant OK         69  87  69  92 /  50  50   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...14