615
FXUS64 KOUN 190532
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1232 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1230 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025

 - One more day of high heat indices.

 - Scattered showers/storms this afternoon through the overnight.

 - Less hot and dry for the latter half of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Tuesday)
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025

Pattern continues with another day of heat and diurnally driven
storms.

Storms this afternoon will form in an environment characterized by
modest instability (~1000 joules) and no shear, resulting in popcorn
thunderstorms with slow, erratic storm motions. Inverted-V soundings
suggest downburst winds could be a hazard with the stronger storms.

The current heat advisory looks on track for today with heat indices
of 105 to 110 expected across the central third of Oklahoma and
adjacent north Texas.

Day

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday night through Wednesday night)
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025

A front is set to approach northern Oklahoma this evening, and
advance through the area overnight. This will serve as a focus for
overnight convection, though CAMs suggest coverage will be limited.
Hazards will be similar to before (occasional strong downburst
winds), with instability gradually waning through the night.

Wednesday will see somewhat cooler temperatures behind the front,
bringing most of the area out of advisory level conditions (the
exception being southeast Oklahoma). Also expect this to begin
another period of dry weather.

Day

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025

The late week pattern looks dry and "less hot" (highs in the low to
mid 90s). Synoptically, we will be positioned between a ridge over
the four corners region and trough to our southeast. Rain chances
return this weekend across northern Oklahoma as another front looks
to approach the area and the upper ridge starts to retreat farther.

Day

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1045 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025

Prevailing VFR conditions remain forecast through the upcoming
period. Convective potential remains the focus for possible (brief)
category reduction across the region. A predawn axis of scattered
activity is possible from western into far north-central Oklahoma
before rather expansive chance arrives by the mid-afternoon and
continues into early Wednesday morning.

In addition, a weak surface front will progress from north-to-
south towards the end of the period, introducing a more sustained
north/northeasterly surface wind.

Safe travels!

Ungar

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  97  73  93  70 /  20  30  10  10
Hobart OK        100  72  97  70 /  20  30  10  10
Wichita Falls TX  98  73  95  71 /  20  30  20  10
Gage OK           96  68  93  67 /  20  30  10  10
Ponca City OK     97  72  93  69 /  20  20  10   0
Durant OK        100  75  97  72 /  20  30  20  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
     OKZ006>008-011>013-018>020-024>032-038>048-050>052.

TX...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
     TXZ086-089-090.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...14
SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...09