130
FXUS64 KOUN 220338
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1038 PM CDT Thu Aug 21 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1036 PM CDT Thu Aug 21 2025

 - Scattered thunderstorms with strong to marginally severe wind
   gusts are possible this afternoon across southern Oklahoma and
   western north Texas.

 - Turning cooler early next week with widespread rain chances.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 128 PM CDT Thu Aug 21 2025

Seasonably hot with scattered showers and storms are possible
this afternoon across southern Oklahoma and western north Texas.
Cannot rule out isolated activity into east-central Oklahoma as
well. Scattered thunderstorms have already developed early this
afternoon in the vicinity of a low-level moisture gradient which
is oriented from near Hughes County to western north Texas. Latest
mesoanalysis indicates a strongly unstable environment with
SBCAPE up to 3500 J/kg (southeast OK) and relatively high DCAPE of
about 1400 J/kg. This environment should support strong wind
gusts up to at least 50 mph, with isolated severe gusts possible.
Storms are expected to be diurnally driven and thus dissipate
near or just after sunset.

Tonight, clear skies are expected with temperatures decreasing into
the upper 60`s and low 70`s.

Thompson

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Saturday night)
Issued at 128 PM CDT Thu Aug 21 2025

The weather conditions for tomorrow will be very similar to those
seen today, with sunny skies and seasonably hot temperatures. Winds
will be lighter and generally out of the northeast as we remain
under the influence of the broad surface high pressure system
centered over the Great Lakes region. A cold front reaches northern
Oklahoma on Saturday by mid-day and will see an increase in post-
frontal winds along with cooler temperatures for northern Oklahoma.
The front is prog`d to reach the I-40 corridor by Saturday evening
and undergo frontolysis overnight as it moves into southern Oklahoma.

Given the agreement among deterministic models, have increased POPs
over northern Oklahoma (Saturday afternoon) with very low chances
reaching central Oklahoma late evening. While guidance varies on
degree of instability ahead of the front, there is at least a chance
of strong to severe thunderstorms late Saturday over northern and
parts of central Oklahoma

Thompson

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 1234 AM CDT Thu Aug 21 2025

Sunday will see slightly lower temperatures in the north behind the
front as well as lingering low chances (10-20%) for showers and
storms across parts of northern Oklahoma.

As the ridge flattens, a series of shortwaves will bring more
widespread showers and storms and much cooler temperatures early
next week.

Ensemble spread for maximum temperatures increases
significantly on Monday for most of the area (Tuesday for south
central OK and north TX) with interquartile ranges of 10 to 15
degrees (interdecile ranges of 15 to 25 degrees). Exact temperatures
will depend on the timing / strength of cold fronts as well as the
effects of cloud cover / precipitation on temperatures.

Spread in 72 hour rainfall amounts is equally high with 25th
percentile amounts ranging from a tenth to a half inch (higher
amounts in northern Oklahoma) and 75th percentile amounts exceeding
2 inches across much of the area.

As you make plans for next week, we recommend paying close attention
to probabilistic forecasts and taking deterministic forecasts with a
grain of salt.

Day

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1036 PM CDT Thu Aug 21 2025

VFR conditions are expected through the period. Light northeast
winds will persist across much of the area through early Friday
evening before becoming light and variable late in the period.
Skies will be mostly clear other than some scattered cumulus
during the day.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  91  69  91  69 /  10   0   0   0
Hobart OK         96  67  95  68 /  10   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  93  70  92  69 /  20  10   0   0
Gage OK           93  64  94  65 /  10   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     91  67  92  67 /  10   0   0   0
Durant OK         93  71  93  69 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...01
SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...08