270
FXUS64 KOUN 311806
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
106 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 103 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

- A few storms may be possible late Sunday afternoon/evening,
  particularly in north central Oklahoma.

- Hot temperatures expected Sunday & Monday.

- Rain/storm chances return Monday & persist through the remainder
  of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 103 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

Summer has arrived on the Southern Plains today with 500 mb heights
soaring into the upper 580s. In conjunction with south-southwest
surface winds and a reasonably dry airmass behind the dryline, a
stout low-level thermal ridge is already taking shape. This will
allow temperatures to approach 100 degrees from western north Texas
toward northwest Oklahoma, with slightly lower temperatures but
greater humidity to the east. All told, wet-bulb globe temperature
risks will range from "Moderate" to "High" this afternoon.
This will be the primary weather concern for outdoor interests.

It is worth noting that at least a conditional risk for storm
development exists late in the afternoon into the evening. The
likeliest location for storms to develop would be in north central
Oklahoma at the fringe of the punch of drier air moving in from the
low-level thermal ridge. Coincidentally, there is a boundary noted
from Payne County eastward on satellite from last night`s storms in
Kansas. The environment north of the boundary will destabilize this
afternoon and a storm or two is possible before moving off into WFO
TSA/ICT`s areas. However, rising heights will likely act to curtail
storm coverage, with sunset abolishing whatever convection does
develop.

Heat stress will continue tonight as lows fail to drop below 72
across most of the area, particularly as winds abate some.

Meister

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 103 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

Heat is the name of the game again tomorrow with temperatures
expected to soar into the 97-101 range west of I-35 again. Unlike
today, there won`t be a low-level thermal ridge responsible for the
near-record heat. Instead, we`ll see compressional warming beneath a
near-590 ridge directly overhead, with surface winds only being a
light southerly in response to weak lee troughing. With that
considered, heat risk will actually be higher tomorrow with lighter
winds, consistent sunshine, and the ever-present humidity. Heat
headlines may become necessary for some of our southeastern counties
(though it is rather borderline).

A complex of storms is likely across southern Kansas (and perhaps
far northern Oklahoma) tomorrow night as the low-level jet really
kicks across the high terrain. Given the shape of the ridge, the
subsequent MCS may be of the variety that begins to dive southward
after daybreak on Tuesday, perhaps bringing outflow and storm
chances to our eastern counties - and also introducing uncertainty
into temperature forecasts for Tuesday.

Meister

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 134 AM CDT Sun May 31 2026

Models show the upper ridge shifting eastward towards the middle
part of the week with potential shortwaves/disturbances moving
across the central/southern Plains through the end of the week.
Shower and thunderstorm chances will continue through the rest of
the week into the weekend. Temperatures will moderate a bit
Wednesday and continue through the rest of the work week with highs
back in the 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1216 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

VFR conditions with mainly light south to southwest winds are
expected to prevail through today and tonight. Wind direction will
be more variable across northern Oklahoma due to an outflow
boundary in the area. Very low chances for an isolated
thunderstorm or two along a corridor stretching from north central
Oklahoma to southwest Oklahoma and western north Texas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  73  98  71  93 /  10  10  20  10
Hobart OK         72 100  70  95 /  10   0  10  10
Wichita Falls TX  73  98  71  96 /   0   0   0  10
Gage OK           69  99  69  92 /  10  10  20  30
Ponca City OK     71  94  70  88 /  20  10  30  10
Durant OK         76  95  74  94 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...14