970
FXUS64 KOUN 191747
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1247 PM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1234 PM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

- Widespread dangerous heat continues today with high temperatures
  between 105-110 degrees.

- Fire weather conditions increase to an Elevated Risk today
  across parts of western and central Oklahoma and western north
  Texas.

- A weak cold front will restrict the dangerous heat to southern
  and parts of central Oklahoma & western north Texas on Thursday,
  but it will return and become widespread Friday into the
  weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

The main hazards today will be heat and fire weather, with some
relief starting to come in from the north with a cold front.

Most of Oklahoma and north Texas will see triple digit temperatures
with much of central and southern Oklahoma and north Texas rising
into the 105-110 degree range. The incoming front (and associated
cloud cover) will introduce some uncertainty with temperatures in
the north. Confidence is high enough to cancel our heat products for
the northern row of Oklahoma counties.

Elevated fire weather will be driven by low RHs (mid to upper teens)
coming in from the west into western Oklahoma and north Texas,
potentially extending into central Oklahoma. The lowest RH values
will likely be seen along an axis just ahead of the front where pre-
frontal torching is expected. Meanwhile, the slightly cooler
temperatures and higher dewpoints behind the front will limit fire
weather in the north. Winds will be light to slightly breezy (10-15
mph with occasional gusts to 25 mph) through the day. ERCs remain
above the 95th percentile.

The biggest uncertainty with today`s forecast will be the front and
its effects. We`ve seen a wind shift to northwesterly as far south
as I-44 (farther than most models had placed it by this time). That
said, we`re also expecting some of the leading edge to mix back out
this afternoon. Cloud cover and convection have also been a bit more
aggressive than models had advertised, though the showers are
quickly diminishing as we move toward afternoon. There`s another
signal (low chance) for a few isolated to widely scattered showers
overnight across northern Oklahoma as well.

Day

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday through Friday night)
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

Thursday will again be hot, but less hot north of I-40. Expect
temperatures in the 100-105 range generally north of I-40, with 105-
110 degree temperatures continuing across southern Oklahoma and
north Texas (a heat advisory and extreme heat warning has been
issued for this area). Additionally, we will have a very low chance
(10%) of showers through the day with the front in the area.
Unfortunately, the "relief" will be short-lived with heat starting
to return northward by Friday.

Light winds should keep fire weather limited mainly to low risk,
though it is worth noting that RH values will fall into the upper
teens to low 20s across western Oklahoma and western north Texas
Thursday and Friday which could result in some patches of elevated
RFTIs.

Day

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 213 AM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

Pressure heights continue to increase across our area as the upper
high "heat dome" across the Southwestern U.S. expands eastward
approaching the Southern Plains while being pushed by a Pacific
trough coming ashore on the West Coast.  With the surface front
washed out southern low-level flow returns as our temperatures get
even hotter with dangerous heating across our entire forecast area
into the weekend. Shortwaves may develop in the ridge pushing our
next "summer" cold into northern Oklahoma on Monday or Tuesday but
too far out in time to determine any heatwave relief from this for
early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

The cold front has progressed farther south than previously
expected and some slow forward motion is possible over the next
few hours before potentially stalling. VFR conditions will continue
with low chances of showers/storms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  76 101  75 104 /   0  10  10   0
Hobart OK         76 105  75 106 /   0   0  10   0
Wichita Falls TX  79 107  78 107 /   0   0  10   0
Gage OK           70  98  71 103 /  10   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     71  98  71 100 /  20   0  20   0
Durant OK         81 107  77 106 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ009-011-014>017-
     021>023-033>038-044.

     Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ012-013-
     018>020-024>032-039>043-045>048-050>052.

     Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Thursday for OKZ023-027>039-
     044-045.

     Extreme Heat Warning from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Thursday for
     OKZ040>043-046>048-050>052.

TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ083>090.

     Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Thursday for TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...14
SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....68
AVIATION...01