137
FXUS64 KOUN 231706
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1106 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1102 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2025

- Warming trend continues into next week with near to above-
  average temperatures.

- With warm, dry and breezy conditions forecast, fire weather
  concern looks to emerge by the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 245 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2025

While still cold, conditions at this hour feel worlds different
than prior mornings. Patchy mid/high clouds and at least weak
southerly flow are helping keep temperatures in the 30s to low-40s
(coldest where winds are lightest). We continue to monitor
potential for very light precipitation/drizzle across the eastern
Red River Valley over the coming hours. Given the ongoing/progged
track of the upper low across central Texas, most precipitation
should remain south of the forecast area this morning. With
temperatures expected to be near/just below freezing across
southeastern Oklahoma towards sunrise, a brief window for freezing
drizzle may also emerge. Any travel impacts would remain very
limited in space and time, if they occur at all.

Otherwise, another very pleasant weather day is on offer across the
Southern Plains. A continued belt of northwesterly flow aloft, and
amplifying upper wave across eastern New Mexico, will promote
continued advection of warmed low-level airmasses across the
area. Combined with mostly clear sky conditions, widespread 60s
(to near 70-degrees; northwest) will be noted by this afternoon.

Ungar

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 245 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2025

Still expecting an upward trend of temperatures as we begin a new
work week. Fog will be possible across south-central Oklahoma
early on Monday before an even warmer day unfolds into the
afternoon. Locales across western-north Texas may warm to near 80-
degrees given compressional effects from a weak surface front.
Otherwise, widespread 70s are expected during both afternoons.
The potential for precipitative weather is nil during this period.

Ungar

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 245 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2025

Seasonable warmth, dry weather and the escalation of fire weather
conditions remain the focus towards the end of next week. A more
notable wave passage looks to occur across the Plains on
Wednesday. The past few cycles have begun to trend toward a more
amplified/complex evolution of the main system, with increasing
potential for a trailing wave across the Four Corners. Still,
expectation remains for a northwest-to-southeast surface front
passage on Wednesday, ushering in slightly cooler conditions
(60s) and a period of gusty north winds. For now, chances for
precipitation with this event are very low (<10%). Similar (though
less breezy) conditions will persist into Thursday before another
warm-up begins on Friday into next weekend.

As far as hazardous weather, the main message during the period
remains expectation for escalating fire risk, particularly across
western Oklahoma and north Texas. This may begin by as early as
Wednesday, when gusty north winds and at least seasonable
temperatures are forecast. With multiple preceding days of
drying, and the return of warm(ing) and breezy conditions into
Thursday/Friday, more problematic fire environments may
materialize by this time.

Ungar

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1102 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2025

Light, mainly southerly to southwesterly winds will prevail
through the TAF period. Radiational cooling could lead to some
patchy fog across south central Oklahoma toward morning (low to
medium chance), affecting mainly KDUA.

Day

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  36  70  39  72 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK         32  74  36  72 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  33  74  38  72 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           32  74  35  73 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     31  69  34  70 /   0   0   0   0
Durant OK         35  69  41  70 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...09
SHORT TERM...09
LONG TERM....09
AVIATION...14