687
FXUS64 KOUN 262355
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
555 PM CST Tue Nov 26 2024

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 541 PM CST Tue Nov 26 2024

- Cold front tomorrow with the potential for light precipitation
  Wednesday night.

- Cold and dry for Thanksgiving Day.

- Widespread hard freeze Friday morning.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 225 PM CST Tue Nov 26 2024

Breezy southerly winds have returned across the Southern Plains
in response to lee cyclogenesis east of the Rockies. A developing
surface low and attendant cold front in association with lee
trough will begin to accelerate to the southeast by late tonight.
A modest low-level thermal ridge ahead of the the developing mid-
latitude cyclone, in tandem with southerly winds, will result in a
warmer night with lows ranging from the mid 30s to upper 40s deg
F.

Mahale

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday through Thursday night)
Issued at 225 PM CST Tue Nov 26 2024

The mid-latitude cyclone will accelerate to east-southeast with
the cold front during the day Wednesday with steady and/or falling
temperatures and gusty northerly winds behind the boundary across
the northern half to two-thirds of Oklahoma. The low-level
thermal ridge ahead of the cyclone will result in a warm afternoon
across the southern Oklahoma and north Texas before the cold air
arrives Wednesday night.

There is chance of sprinkles and flurries Wednesday night into
early Thursday morning within a zone of mid-level saturation. No
impacts to travel are expected. One trend we would have to monitor
carefully is the potential for drizzle (especially any freezing
drizzle); however, forecast soundings indicate the saturated layer
should be above the planetary boundary layer.

Colder weather will return for Thanksgiving Day in the wake of
the cold front.

Mahale

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Monday)
Issued at 225 PM CST Tue Nov 26 2024

No significant changes were made to the long term forecast. A
widespread freeze is still expected Friday morning across the
entire area with a modest recovery in temperatures ahead of the
next cold front that arrives late Saturday into Sunday. There
still remains uncertainty on the magnitude of the cold air
intrusion into the Southern Plains; however, it appears the most
likely scenario is our area on the southwest periphery of the cold
air mass. Even so, below-average temperatures still appear
likely.

Mahale

Previous Discussion Issued at 255 AM CST Tue Nov 26 2024

Low temperatures early Friday morning are very likely to dip below
those felt early Tuesday morning, with a hard freeze (low-20s)
likely across much of central into northern Oklahoma. Any areas
that fail to note freezing conditions on Tuesday morning will
certainly surpass that threshold during this time.

Another frontal passage is expected to occur over the weekend
(Saturday). There remains uncertainty regarding how far south the
parent upper system will translate during this time. For now, a
more north/eastward track of the system remains favored such that
the brunt of cold weather/temperatures looks to remain to the
north/east of the forecast area. Sunday is currently advertised as
having the coldest daytime temperatures of the period, with low-
40s across portions of northern Oklahoma. At this time, nil
precipitation chance is forecast from the weekend into early next
week.

Ungar

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 541 PM CST Tue Nov 26 2024

All terminals should remain under VFR conditions through the
forecast period. However, stratus coming down off the Central
Plains may lower ceilings to MVFR conditions late in the forecast
around 21Z only affecting terminal KWWR in this forecast. Surface
winds should stay out of the south although a lee low and cold
front will be pushing across our area after 12Z shifting the winds
out of the north at 10-15 kts gusting 20-30 kts. Expecting the
wind shift to affect terminal KWWR around 12Z and affecting most
of our remaining terminals after 18Z. A low-level jet will
develop tonight after 06Z which could impact terminals in central
and southeast Oklahoma with a low-level wind shear through the
morning hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  43  56  32  46 /   0   0  10   0
Hobart OK         45  59  32  49 /   0   0  10   0
Wichita Falls TX  46  71  38  51 /   0   0  10   0
Gage OK           37  51  25  48 /   0   0  10   0
Ponca City OK     38  53  27  45 /   0   0   0   0
Durant OK         46  72  40  51 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...10
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...68