028
FXUS64 KOUN 201114
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
614 AM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 524 AM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025

 - Dangerous heat expected Sunday and Monday

 - Hot and humid conditions continue this week.

 - Rain chances will be near zero through the middle of the
   upcoming week.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1231 AM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025

With upper ridge firmly in control and veered low level flow
strengthening low level thermal ridge over Kansas and Oklahoma could
see a degree or two higher afternoon highs across the area this
afternoon.

Models also continue to advect higher dewpoints northward into the
area, especially along and east of I-35. Which will result in
afternoon heat indices of 105-110 across much of the area. Previous
shift has already gone ahead with a heat advisory for much of the
area and this continues to look reasonable. No changes to this
expected with this mornings forecast package.

Breezy south winds will continue as well and will help keep wet bulb
globe temperatures in check.

Again for tonight, breezy south winds and higher dewpoints will keep
overnight lows mild with some locales just dipping below 80 degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 1231 AM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025

Similar conditions expected Monday, will likely need another heat
advisory for much of the area as upper ridge continues to dominate
the area.

This ridge may shift ever so slightly to the east for Tuesday and
models indicate minor shortwave may traverse northward across the
panhandles into western parts of the area. Now, we currently do not
anticipate any precip associated with this wave, however there may
be a plume of mid-level moisture that may provide some cloud cover
and result in a few degrees cooler highs for Tuesday afternoon.

Perhaps by this time we may advect some lower dewpoints back into
the area as well, keeping afternoon heat indices below advisory
levels Tuesday afternoon a majority of the area.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 1231 AM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025

Models continue trend of retrograding upper ridge by midweek with
area coming under more of an influence from shortwave coming up from
Mexico. This may provide portions of western Oklahoma and north
Texas a chance of rainfall, however precip chances with NBM are
currently is confined to northwest Oklahoma and points west
Wednesday night. This will be something to watch.

Trends by later in the week continue to shrink ridge back to the
southeast with additional rain chances, mainly across northwest
Oklahoma. This may take a degree or two off the highs, but may also
bring in some higher dewpoints once again, leading to potential for
additional heat headlines.

As the eastern ridge weakens, models are showing the western ridge
developing and this may then take hold by next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 524 AM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025

All of our terminals should remain in a VFR category through the
entire forecast period. Will maintain low-level wind shear through
14Z across most of our terminals as a southwest to northeast
aligned low-level jet starts weakening. By 14Z, surface winds
increase out of the south at 15-20 kts gusting up to 25 kts. Gusts
will diminish a bit after 02Z although south surface winds may
stay breezy overnight. Another low-level jet develops tonight so
have reintroduced low-level wind shear after 06Z across all but
terminals KCSM & KWWR in western Oklahoma.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  96  77  96  76 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK        102  77 101  76 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX 101  77 100  77 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK          101  75 100  74 /   0  10   0   0
Ponca City OK     97  76  97  76 /   0  10   0   0
Durant OK         96  76  96  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for OKZ004>008-010>013-017>020-023>048-050>052.

TX...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for TXZ083-085-086-089-090.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...68