746
FXUS64 KOUN 181115
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
615 AM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 612 AM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026

- Heat wave and elevated fire danger persists through at least
  Saturday.

- A cold front arrives this weekend, bringing medium-high rain
  chances and less hot temperatures next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Friday)
Issued at 229 AM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026

Another hot day is expected today with high temperatures similar
or slightly lower than yesterday. Although the upper ridge remains
camped over the southern Plains, the magnitude of the high is
decreasing with the 500 mb high progged to be closer to 596 dm
than yesterday`s 599 dm observed here at KOUN as well as SGF, LZK,
SHV, and FWD. Forecast heat indices are slightly lower than
yesterday. HI values may push close to 105 again in Atoka and
Bryan Counties, but are in general below Heat Advisory criteria
and currently do not plan on issuing an advisory.

Fire weather concerns continue to mainly be driven by very dry
fuels driven by the ongoing drought. Minimum humidity is expected
to remain above 25 percent and sustained wind speeds generally
below 20 mph, neither meeting traditional Red Flag criteria.
However we have continued to see wildfires this week in the dry
fuels without the weather meeting traditional criteria. Will issue
a Fire Danger Statement covering much of the southern half of the
forecast area where ERC (Energy Release Component) calculations
are this highest.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday night through Sunday night)
Issued at 229 AM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026

The magnitude of the upper ridge will continue to decrease this
weekend, and increased upper-level flow will develop across
northwest Oklahoma as least as the ridge weakens and shifts
southeast and an upper trough moves east toward the southern
Rockies. An initial shortwave in the southwesterly flow aloft
Saturday morning moves into the central Plains, and behind it a
cold front slides south through Kansas and looks to enter the
Sooner State early Saturday evening. Rain chances increase
Saturday afternoon in the northwest, with wider chances Saturday
night into Sunday with the front in the area and southwesterly
flow aloft. Instability will support thunderstorms with some
potentially strong storms as well as SPC`s marginal risk of severe
storms, but at this point we do not expect widespread severe. It
will be quite warm again Saturday ahead of the front with cooler
temperatures spreading into the area on Sunday as the front
continues to move south, although the movement of the front will
be slow through Sunday until the weakening trough moves over the
area late Sunday, then the front will push south more quickly
Sunday night.

Humidity and wind will again not meet traditional fire weather
criteria on Saturday, but the fuels will remain receptive. The
axis of lowest humidity (near 25 percent) may even shift more
toward southeastern Oklahoma on Saturday. By Sunday, minimum
humidity values look to be higher (30-50 percent).

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 229 AM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026

By Monday morning, the cold front will have moved through much of
the area bringing a more seasonable airmass, although southern
areas may still be quite warm Monday depending on the specific
timing of the front. And the weather through the week will be
dominated by the post-frontal surface ridge across the Midwest
into the Plains. Precipitation chances Monday will primary be
closest to the cold front in the south. Later in the week the
highest precipitation chances will primarily be across the west
with post-frontal upslope surface winds helping to produce
convection over the High Plains with the storms moving toward
western portions of the forecast area. Temperatures will remain
closer to seasonable averages than we have seen in quite a while.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 612 AM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the day today and tonight with
south winds prevailing. As his been the case most days recently,
expect slightly gustier winds from mid morning through the
afternoon, subsiding by early evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  98  75  98  75 /   0   0   0  10
Hobart OK         99  75 100  75 /   0   0   0  20
Wichita Falls TX 101  74 101  74 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           98  74  99  71 /   0   0  30  30
Ponca City OK     96  74  97  72 /   0   0   0  40
Durant OK        101  73 100  73 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...08