431
FXUS64 KOUN 312325
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
625 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 623 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

- Dangerous heat continues through early this evening.

- Strong to severe thunderstorms possible this afternoon and
  evening with damaging wind gusts the main concern.

- Dangerous heat returns next week after a brief reprieve over
  the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 127 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

Another day of dangerous heat today with a chance for thunderstorms
this afternoon as a front moves across parts of the area.

At mid-day, the front had moved through northern and west central OK
with the boundary extending from near Ponca City and Enid, to
Watonga and Erick OK. The front is expected to continue to move
south and southeast across parts of the area this afternoon.
Meanwhile, an upper low that caused the front to move into the area
continues to move SE into parts of the Upper Midwest.

The "cooler" air is lagging a bit behind the front so initially the
only affects are a wind shift to the NW and N. With the "cooler" air
lagging, another hot to very hot afternoon is in store for much of
the fa, especially for those areas that remain ahead of the front.
Triple digit highs are expected, except for maybe NW OK. The hottest
temperatures will likely be in the area just ahead of the front this
afternoon where "pre-frontal torching" (low level thermal ridge)
will likely aid in temperatures climbing to or above 105. High heat
indices are also expected this afternoon. At mid-day, many of the
locations in the fa have already seen triple digit heat index
values. Heat indices of 105+ are expected this afternoon with some
areas reaching 110+. Will maintain the current configuration of the
heat advisory and extreme heat warning which is in effect through 9
PM.

Much of the scattered activity that moved across parts of the fa
this morning is diminishing early this afternoon. Additional
scattered storm development is expected near the front this
afternoon. Some of the storms could become strong to severe,
generally for locations along and south of I-40. Inverted-V
soundings will suggest that strong or damaging wind gusts will be
the primary concern with these storms late this afternoon and
evening. The storms are expected to decrease/end later this
evening/overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Sunday night)
Issued at 127 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

Models show NW to N flow aloft the rest of today and through the
weekend as the previously mentioned upper low continues to move
across the Midwest and the upper high remains centered near the Four
Corners region. At the surface, the "cooler" air will eventually
move into the region behind today`s front with northerly to
northeasterly winds through the weekend. This will lead to a less
hot weekend with temperatures around normal for early August.
Saturday and Sunday`s highs will be fairly similar with temperatures
ranging from the low 90s in north central OK to the upper 90s/around
100 in southwest OK and western north TX. More mild nights are also
expected this weekend with lows in the mid/upper 60s and low 70s
both Saturday and Sunday night. Unfortunately this "less hot" period
will be fairly brief with a return of the hotter temperatures
expected next week.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 254 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

Excessive heat returns next week as the upper ridge advances from
the west. Rain chances are not zero, but probabilities are low
through Thursday.

Thompson

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 623 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

Isolated thunderstorms with gusty winds could impact southwest OK
and western north TX sites over the next couple hours along a
cold front before dissipating this evening. North winds and VFR
conditions will continue behind the front tonight through the day
on Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  73  93  69  93 /  10   0   0   0
Hobart OK         72  97  67  98 /  20   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  75  99  69  99 /  30   0   0   0
Gage OK           68  94  64  96 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     70  91  67  92 /   0   0   0   0
Durant OK         77  96  71  96 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ005-006-014>016-
     021-033-034.

     Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ007-008-
     011>013-017>020-022>032-035>048-050>052.

TX...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...25
SHORT TERM...25
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...08