014
FXUS64 KOUN 220340
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1040 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1038 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2025

 - Low chance for showers/storms across western and northern
   Oklahoma late Wednesday into Thursday.

 - Dangerous heat is forecast to return by the upcoming weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2025

Dangerous heat indices continue as the Southern Plains is on the
northwest edge of a ~595 dam mid-level ridge centered across
southeast U.S.

Afternoon highs ranging from the mid 90s to low 100s deg F,
combined with dew points in the upper 60s to mid 70s deg F, will
result in widespread heat indices between 105 to 110 deg F. A
modest surface pressure gradient is resulting in breezy southerly
winds once again today, which will help temper the wet bulb globe
temperatures.

Similar to yesterday, there is a low chance (<10%) of isolated,
high-based showers and thunderstorms across far northwest Oklahoma
(near the Oklahoma/Texas state line) late this afternoon in an
uncapped, deeply-mixed, and hot environment. If convection
develops, evaporation into a dry boundary layer may result in some
gusty winds at the surface.

Southerly wind will result in another warm night with low
temperatures into the mid to upper 70s deg F.

Mahale

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2025

The aforementioned ridge will lessen its influence on Tuesday and
Wednesday as the center of the ridge moves toward the Midwest.
This will place the Southern Plains on the western periphery of
the ridge.

Lowered mid-level heights/a weakness associated with a trough in
tandem with lower 850 mb temperatures will result in slightly
lower temperatures (especially across the west). Dew points are
also forecast to be lower tomorrow. As a result, heat indices are
forecast to generally range from the upper 90s to low 100s deg F.
Given that any heat indices at 105 deg F (or higher) are forecast
to be isolated, a Heat Advisory was not issued for Tuesday at this
time.

In addition, there will be a higher chance of showers and
thunderstorms beginning late Wednesday with the trough providing
synoptic-scale ascent in an weakly capped/uncapped environment.
The highest chance will be across western into northern Oklahoma
(~20 to 30%). The primary hazard with any thunderstorms will be
strong wind gusts.

Mahale

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 1232 AM CDT Mon Jul 21 2025

The Wednesday "reprieve" from the heat looks to be short-lived as we
move forward through the latter part of the week into the following
weekend. There is a shortwave that moves through the central Plains
on Thursday, which may bring a low chance of rain to northern
Oklahoma.

However, after that, models show another ridge building from the
south and southwest which some models indicate will then expand to
encompass much of the central part of the CONUS by the weekend. GFS
does take more time to build this ridge and gives indications that
some precip chances exist before the ridge becomes more dominate by
the end of the month. Once the ridge builds in, this will likely
result in shutting down any chance of precip and raising
temperatures across the board. Much of the area potentially seeing
daytime highs in excess of 100 degrees by Friday and continuing
through the remainder of the forecast period. Widespread heat
headlines will again be a good bet.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1038 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. There is a
low chance for LLWS to affect some terminals Tuesday morning, but
there is not a strong enough signal to add in the TAFs at this
time. Winds will predominately be out of the south and will be
breezy by the afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  97  75  96  75 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK        101  77 100  75 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX 101  77 100  77 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK          101  74  99  72 /   0  20   0   0
Ponca City OK     96  75  97  74 /   0   0   0   0
Durant OK         97  75  98  75 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...10
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...13